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12
r/punk says you aren't welcome if you aren't mainstream :marseykickflip:

It's so fricking incredible how sanitized and castrated the shitlib multitrillion dollar corporate oligarchy has made everything that was once subversive. Punk, metal, witchcraft, anti-establishment pseudopolitick, body mods, weird hairstyles and colors. Every single thing under the sun has been coopted, declawed, simplified and bastardized beyond all recognition. You can't even be anti-corporate hegemony anymore without being cheered on by 10+ figure corporations selling you shit for it and being collectively branded a Bad Guy if you don't embrace it.

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https://i.rdrama.net/images/17304091688319914.webp

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17304091696801212.webp

lol

https://i.rdrama.net/images/1730409169937914.webp

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!chuds in shambles

All the polling supports the buzziest statistical claim of the 2024 election: Black voters are moving toward Donald Trump. An October 2020 Pew Research survey found that Black voters favored Joe Biden by a margin of 81 points, 89 percent to 8 percent. But four years later, Vice President Kamala Harris's margin of support among this group is just 65 points (79 percent for her vs. 14 percent for Trump). In an extremely tight election, a 16-point drop seems like a very big deal.

My expertise isn't in predicting election outcomes, so I won't attempt to do so using this data. I'm a decision scientist and a retired professional poker player. I study how we make decisions and how we can train ourselves to make better ones. The conversation around Black voters is an example of one theme I plan to explore in this year-long column for The Post: how our instincts about data can lead us to draw the wrong conclusions.

For all the talk about misinformation these days, misinterpretation of factually correct information is what keeps me up at night. The research backs up my concern. A May study by researchers at MIT and the University of Pennsylvania found that information about covid-19 vaccines that passed a fact check but was misleading was much more consequential than misinformation in driving a potentially bad, high-stakes decision. How much more consequential? Try 46-fold.

When we look at the case of Trump and Black voters, the trend is not in dispute. The problem is that we've neglected to gather all the information we need to put the trend in context. We can't know what to make of the numbers --- whether they are big or small, or significant or not --- if we're looking at the data in isolation, as the majority of commentators have presented it.

As is often the case, we have yet to ask two necessary questions of the data: "Compared with what?" and "Out of how many?"

For the movement among Black voters to matter, it must mean a net loss for Harris and a net gain for Trump. When we compare Black voters only to themselves, and no other group, it creates the appearance that this is the case. When we change the comparison to all voting blocs, the picture changes. According to recent polling, Trump is doing worse with White voters, specifically those without college degrees, than he did in 2020 and 2016. I was relieved to see CNN's Harry Enten point this out last week.

In the last two elections, Trump's key demographic --- his base --- has been non-college-educated White voters. In 2016, he did better than Hillary Clinton with this group by 33 points. Then in 2020 he outperformed Biden by 31 points. But according to the latest polling averages, Trump's lead among this group has fallen by 4 points from 2020: He now holds a 27-point margin over Harris.

Of course, Trump's 16-point gain among Black voters feels a lot bigger than Harris's 4-point gain among non-college-educated White voters. Four times bigger, in fact. That is probably why Trump's gain is getting a lot more of our attention.

But this framing cuts off the full picture. Elections are about total votes, so we need to figure out what percentage of the electorate these two groups represent.

According to Pew, Black voters make up about 14 percent of the electorate nationally. In battleground states Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Black voters represent smaller shares of the electorate: 14 percent, 11 percent and 6 percent, respectively. Nationally, non-college-educated Whites make up 40 percent of the electorate, but in those Great Lakes states, they make up 51 percent of the vote. So although Trump's gain with Black voters looks to be four times bigger than Harris's gain with noncollege White voters, Harris's "new voters" demographic outnumbers Trump's by significantly more than 4 to 1.

To give you an idea of how much the proportion matters, if you selected 100 voters at random in Michigan, Trump would be predicted to gain about two Black voters, while Harris could expect to gain about two noncollege White voters. That's a wash. In Wisconsin, Trump would be predicted to gain about one Black voter, while Harris would be predicted to gain about two non-college-educated White voters. That's 2 to 1 in Harris's favor.

This is why it's so important to ask "Out of how many?" and "Compared with what?" When we don't, we're basing our beliefs on a statistical illusion. Making more accurate predictions depends on drawing the right conclusions from that data --- and, just as important, not drawing the wrong conclusions.

In a presidential election, quality information about the state of the race is crucial because it can shape our behavior. Research has shown that polling can influence how people vote, so misinterpreting it has consequences.

Trump's improvement with Black voters might ultimately matter more in the right places than Harris's improvement with White voters. But we can't assume so based on the headlines we're reading today, so we shouldn't make decisions based on them.

I'm writing this column because I've spent my career thinking about these issues. I've discovered that there are all sorts of things we can do to improve our decision-making. Becoming a better consumer of information is at the top of my to-do list. We can learn to ask the right questions about the information we encounter. We can learn to ask for more context. We can become better at avoiding these self-inflicted errors.

Whether at the ballot box or the poker table or the kitchen table, learning how to become better consumers of information is a project worth pursuing. It's a project I am excited to share with you over the course of the next year.

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16
Sheila is a Fiiiiire wooooooork

Love yall

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Actually, Marvel movies are peak CGI you pleb :marseyakshually:

And of course he starts grifting as soon as he gets a shred of attention :marseyeyeroll:

>have dinosaurs and lasers and steampunk alt histories and such

Wowzers! :soyjakwow:

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I ain't 'fraid of no ghost! :marseyghostlaugh:

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Reported by:
  • Lv90_Slime : I have a gun/ammo bowl in front of my house (only take ONE gun and ONE magazine!!)
10
Best House?

!boozers

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5
Watch the Avengers endorse K-Mommy and it will convince you to write in Hamas :marseycringe2:

ScarJo is so far over the wall she's basically one of the Central Americans K-Mommy imported to work slave labor cash jobs

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5
Do NOT face bardfinn alone when Astral projecting :marseybardfinn3:

Today while astral projecting I summoned Steve to try and weaken him so our hexing spells would work better.

He is so fricking powerful. I'm not at a power level to do this alone. I barely escaped with my life and I'm spiritually injured to a great amount, but I think I'll make it.

I can't imagine what he would do to a new, unsuspecting witch. I'm scared that I will have to face him again soon if I ever want to continue astral projecting. I'm currently burning healing incense and drawing spiritual energy from my crystals to try and heal as quickly as possible.

Please be safe everyone. Bardfinn is much stronger than I first imagined and we will have to do this together if we want to slay a god.

:bardfinn#soyface:

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28
kween integrates into mayo susiety but makes it less corny (this is a bad thing)

first of all I love the Irish :marseyflagpalestinelove::marseyflagpalestinelove::marseyflagpalestinelove: :marseyflagirelandlove::marseyflagirelandlove::marseyflagirelandlove: and of course 0 Irish people are offended about some dancing black lady and it's all crying lards and bongs nooo how could she dance this is literally yt genocide :chudrage:

a mutt s*x offender living in Romania and a balding bong with ties to the taliban think it's wrong :tears:

https://i.rdrama.net/images/1730399291508654.webp

so many lards (including op)

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17303993287098362.webp https://i.rdrama.net/images/1730399329145916.webp https://i.rdrama.net/images/17303993294961076.webp

meanwhile actual Irish people :marseyglancing: lmao

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17303993298709478.webp

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17303993300669653.webp

:marseysh#esright:

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68
twitter rightoids are just as r-slurred as redditors holy shit

so the string of tweets starts with

How hard would it be to add a "I don't care" option at the very least?

so obviously i reply

basically impossible because it's literally genocide and would directly cause the deaths of billions of trans and non binary people.

a painfully obvious joke tweet...right? WRONG, DINGUS. IT WAS A SERIOUS TWEET FROM A DEVOUT TQ+ MEMBER!

Lmao. No ones causing the deaths of trans people but themselves. Don't blame other people for people committing suicide.

Not acknowledging it as anything special should be what yall are striving for, not this attention seeking bullshit.

me

wrong. if you don't completely affirm and encourage trans and non binary people in video games there would be trillions of trans deaths over night and you would have blood on yer hands.

him

I don't have blood on my hands for not telling a schizophrenic person that the voices in their head are real, or that their anorexia is right and that they should be skinnier. Becuase we don't affirm the mentally ill.

also him

"I don't care, there are bigger issues" is the best case scenario for the LGBT community. It's the indifference that gay people have been striving for years, but the trans want to bring attention to their "Me me me" attitude. Then yall wonder why you're called narcissists.

also him

Yall already have a trans character in the Dragon Age series, but yall complain that it's not made to be a big deal. Krem in DAI is trans, literally no one cares because it's not made to be a big issue and it's not its own scene you're FORCED to go through without opposition.

me

you should be forced to go through it so your genocidal homicidal transphobic tendencies can be reeducated out of you. do better, sweaty.

him

You're just mad that someone's disagreeing with you dude.

People are sick and tired of being told what to think, especially when it's not based in reality.

me

there's a difference between "disagreeing" and "committing actual genocide".

him

I understand that this is your favorite book, but tweets by random people aren't killing people.

If you sincerely think that what random people on the internet are saying are killing people, you and those people need to 1) Touch Grass and 2) Talk to an actual therapist

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17303954284381359.webp

this isn't even all of it, but i'm about to leave and can't continue. someone else can pick it up if you want. it seems you can say any wild bullshit you want and he'll take it serious.

am i the one getting worked here? i half feel like i have to be. he can't be reading my tweets and thinking they are real. HE CAN'T.

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21
:marseyfalloutvictim: VK_USER CONFIRMED FURRY :marseyfurry:
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this actually might be good, im kinda stoked

https://media.tenor.com/T6WnGVpH5j8AAAAx/fake-smile-awkward.webp

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Title

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16
Donald Trump Proposes Shocking Plan to Reduce Unemployment and Boost Birth Rate

For those who can't beat the paywall, some excerpts:

WASHINGTON (AP) - Former President Donald Trump has announced a shocking plan to defeat unemployment and improve the declining birth rate in one policy decision.

Critics of Trump's anti-immigration rhetoric have warned that without immigration, essential jobs will not be performed and the population will decline.

Trump has answered these critiques with a "revolutionary" new plan to fight both: decriminalizing, but highly regulating, r*pe.

Under the Trump administration, citizens will be allowed to buy "r*pe vouchers" for $5,000, which they may turn in to any police trying to prevent them from raping someone. Each r*pe requires a new voucher. Individuals impregnated in a r*pe in which a r*pe voucher was used are not permitted to terminate the pregnancy, nor are they entitled to any financial compensation from their male feminist.

Individuals who commit r*pe without a voucher are subject to normal criminal penalties.

Trump claims that the promise of r*pe will motivate "disillusioned young men" to re-enter the labor force. Quote: "We have the best young men in America here, don't we folks? Our young men can do more than the young men of any other country, and I don't say that lightly. My program will make it clear to our young men just how much we appreciate them."

Feminist groups have criticized Trump's rhetoric surrounding the program, saying that his failure to mention that women can r*pe and impregnate people too is "backwards."

I know this is true because Trump is my great-uncle, for the record.

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29
Video:marseyprojection: shows Kentucky:marseymoonshine:voting machines:marseyamogus:having odd malfunction :marseyitsrigged:

https://cdn.videy.co/Zi1PYEzE.mp4

https://media.tenor.com/jIOUrZuX9R0AAAAx/vote-you-go-girl.webp

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https://media.tenor.com/D1OAimFQ5GQAAAAx/misogyny-spongebob.webp

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gjsman-1000 2 hours ago [flagged] [dead] | parent | context | flag | vouch | favorite | on: An Update on Apple M1/M2 GPU Drivers

Asahi Lina

You mean Marcan42's alter ego. I know, I know, but I'm still viewing it as offensive to women in tech when men adopt female alter egos for false appearances of diversity.

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51
"Tell Kamala. I want her to know it was me"
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16
Full Kamala Harris Call Her Daddy Interview :marseyemojilaugh:

!khive

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21
Reddit Lies provides archive of the Kamala server for the past week.
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Mysterious event revealed, now everyone wants it to be a movie lul

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15
:marseybiden: I did that
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39
Joe Rogan Experience #2221 - JD Vance :surewalz:

!chuds !trump2024 :#marseychudjamming:

https://old.reddit.com/r/JoeRogan/comments/1ggk14k/joe_rogan_experience_2221_jd_vance/

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!nooticers

Given at least a quarter of UK adults have had an affair, it stands to reason that cheaters come in all shapes and sizes.

According to new research however, there are a number of features that unfaithful people share --- and middle-aged bald men are among the most likely to stray.

In a study by MrQ, Brits who've been cheated on were quizzed about their disloyal partner's looks, with cutting-edge AI technology then recreating what the 'typical' adulterer looks like.

Over a third of men admitted to cheating on a partner at least once before compared to 24% of women, which tallies with divorce statistics showing women are 33% more likely to file for divorce due to adultery than men are.

People aged 45 to 54 play away most, with more than one in three in this age group having done so, while autumn is peak time for infidelity, going up 22% as the weather gets cooler.

As for the stereotypical male cheater, findings put him in his 40s, with blue-grey eyes, small lips, short facial and neck hair and little to no head hair. Topping off the look is a larger nose and visible frown lines.

https://i.rdrama.net/images/1730391620276006.webp

In contrast, the stereotypical woman who cheats is said to be dark-haired and in her early 50s, with a small nose and a medium-sized pout.

And across the board, those who did the dirty were described as sporting a slim build and having 'staring eyes'.

Researchers highlight that these images are based on statistical analysis and 'won't apply to all individuals,' as 'people's behaviour is defined by their decisions and actions, not what they look like.'

Loyalty is an important factor for Brits though, as two-fifths of respondents who'd been betrayed split up with their partner straight away after finding out (although an astonishing one in 50 people went on to marry them anyway).

https://i.rdrama.net/images/1730391620412128.webp

As well as physical traits, there are also trends revealing the locations where cheating is rife.

Manchester emerged as the affair capital of the UK, with 43% of Mancunians having had at least one, followed by Sheffield at 39% and Cardiff at 34%.

Meanwhile, Edinburgh is home to the most faithful residents, with more than half (55%) claiming to have never cheated on any of their partners or been cheated on themselves.

And if you're planning on two-timing someone from Bristol or Glasgow, you shouldn't expect your relationships to last if caught, as these cities have the least tolerance for unfaithful lovers.

The survey found that 64% of Bristolians and 60% of Glaswegians dumped their partner as soon as they found out, which correlates with lower rates of cheating in both.

The UK's affair capitals (% of residents who admitted to cheating)

1. Manchester (43%)

2. Sheffield (39%)

3. Cardiff (34%)

4. Leeds (32%)

5. Norwich (30%)

The UK's most faithful cities (% of residents who have never cheated or been cheated on)

  • Edinburgh (55%)

  • Nottingham (48%)

  • Liverpool (44%)

  • Birmingham (44%)

  • Newcastle (42%)

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