the earnings call is 4pm CST this tuesday. i'm gonna leave work early. this will be brutal full disclosure i actually do think apple will have a subpar earnings call but WOW what a gamble
Huh? Yeah he could. He said he has $325K, which he said could probably pay off his current debts. If Apple goes up to 128 or above, he'll lose like $275K, leaving him in a huge amount of debt.
If Apple doesn't go down, or only goes down a little, he'll lose $30K+.
Reminds me of a comment I saw when I made the mistake of wandering into a trading forum.
Hedging is for pussies. Real men make directional trades!
..or something to that effect. Come to think of it, it might have been that subreddit. Such a bro-dude atmosphere. You could substitute NFL teams for the stock symbols and "yardage" for "earnings" and it would be a sports gambling sub.
I sometimes think of this like playing sports, like bros could compete and have fun playing in the rec leagues and the office beer/softball tournament... Except NYSE and NASDAQ don't have those sort of divisions, so these bros are prepared for the beer leagues and playing against the financial equivalent of the Yankees.
I don't want to be a debby downer but this guy is full of shit. His story hasn't exactly stayed consistent over the years. It's a good read but I'm afraid he's approaching /r/relationships level of creative writing.
This is the first I've heard of this guy, but I am skeptical this is real, also. I suspect OP will not deliver due to "technical difficulties" or something of that nature.
I bet you 5000 dollars he won't deliver!!! Wait....
No, this is the point at which he drops the charade and takes the investment that he knows will be big, rather than the inverse. Everyone else will go big on the opposite end of the trade, they will get fucked, and he will cash in and laugh.
Got 2.5 mill inherited. Gambled 500 k, lost it, gained it back and lost that and even more. Now on his last legs for a final yolo play to "get it back". That is a super bad gambling problem. If he wins he will just delay the inevitable and lose it all again.
Could of just lived off the dividends of 2.5 mill (around 50k a year). If he loses he might do suicide, not joking
No its actually pretty good for doing no work. Like take a lesson from your dead relative who was frugal and made that fortune that you inherited and now are squandering
Not bad? It's above the US average, which is above the US median. The majority of people are living off of less than 50k a year, and that doesn't include taxes, expenses, and debt. You can gamble away all the money you could ever want and still live better than almost everyone in the world.
The funny thing is how mad many capitalists get about the idea of socialism because it supposedly incentivizes not working. If you have enough capital (from e.g. an inheritance), you can literally live on unearned income for the rest of your life.
In case of capitalism it's not a problem that negatively affects society in any perceptible way, obviously. The argument is supposed to be utilitarian, not deontological.
No, I'm saying that the argument saying "but socialism incentivizes not working" does not appeal to moral outrage about lazy people, it says that socialism is unlikely to work because a lot of people would avoid working and there wouldn't be enough stuff.
This argument obviously doesn't apply to capitalism, unless you are trying to seriously argue against a dystopian future where most of the population are multimillionaires living on interest and there's no one to work in the factories any more.
Why would people sharing the means of production incentivize them to not work? They still own the means of production, it's just shared. If this logic was a killer blow against socialism then it would mean that no capitalism firm could function as all the middle managers etc would stop working, as any successes of their own would just be reaped by those above them.
Why would people sharing the means of production incentivize them to not work?
First of all, the exact meaning of socialism is very vague (probably intentionally) and spans all the way from Sweden to Cambodia and could mean anything up to and including anarcho-communism (but still different from the "real communism" which is an unfathomable further development), so it's hard to pin that down definitively. But as far as it's guided by the principle of "from everyone by their ability, to everyone by their needs", there's a reasonable suspicion about the validity of the approaches to making the first part work.
In a capitalist firm, the workers who don't work are fired, which they don't want to be because unemployment is miserable existence. For further info refer to various explanations of how "poverty is backbone of capitalism" etc.
First of all, the exact meaning of socialism is very vague (probably intentionally)
No it's not. Socialism means the working class controls the means of production; alternatively put, in some way, the community has to democratically decide how the productive machinery of society is put to use. This has always been the definition of socialism, no matter which dictator or college kid decides otherwise.
In a capitalist firm, the workers who don't work are fired, which they don't want to be because unemployment is miserable existence.
How is this different than in socialism? If you are able to work your share and refuse then good luck sharing in the produced goods and services, unless there's enough extra left over.
This has always been the definition of socialism, no matter which dictator or college kid decides otherwise.
In a capitalist firm, the workers who don't work are fired, which they don't want to be because unemployment is miserable existence.
How is this different than in socialism? If you are able to work your share and refuse then good luck sharing in the produced goods and services, unless there's enough extra left over.
For further info refer to various explanations of how "poverty is backbone of capitalism" etc.
Which you forgot to quote and respond to.
Straight talk: if your rallying cry for socialism is that it wouldn't be as inhumane to poor people as your capitalism strawman, then you have to explain what makes people work 8-5 five days a week.
That's kind of a strawman though. The criticism is that sometimes incentives may get altered such that work is misallocated; for example, steel still being made to be sent into a glutted market.
Depends on how he invests, obviously. Buy a nice house in a cheaper area for $400k, put another $500k into t bonds, then the rest into the market. More than enough to live a good life, hire a cleaner once a week, drive a decent car etc... Especially given he could probably rent out a room for an extra income stream given he's single.
Yeah, I went through a year of trying to trade actively. It became apparent that I was gambling away my savings. Finally I got out with a 50% loss. Never again.
One final thing. I don’t know if God exists. I won’t pretend that I suddenly believe in Him (or Her), like so many do in their time of need, but if you do exist God: please, please, please, please, please help me. I have never been lucky in this life and you have thrown many obstacles in my way, but if you help me here, everything is forgiven.
Poor unlucky bastard. Not one good break in his entire life.
The day he passed away, I learned he was bequeathing me over 2.5 million dollars.
Oh...
Well. I know what outcome I'm rooting for on Tuesday.
Because if he BOUGHT shares, he'd lose money if APPL goes down (which is what he bets on). That's why his options (pun intended) were either shorting or buying puts.
88 comments
n/a SnapshillBot 2017-01-29
Buzzword is, itself, a buzzword now.
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n/a riemann1413 2017-01-29
holy shit i need to watch this
the earnings call is 4pm CST this tuesday. i'm gonna leave work early. this will be brutal full disclosure i actually do think apple will have a subpar earnings call but WOW what a gamble
n/a snallygaster 2017-01-29
Apple is a pretty safe gamble compared to what the guy usually puts money on, but putting literally all of your money and debt on it...oh man
n/a riemann1413 2017-01-29
yeah, i've watched dude before. it's more than i can take usually, tbh.
but this is his swan song. i have to see how this turns out.
my prediction: extremely small return
but there's a horrid little man in me who wants to watch fscomeau lose everything
and i'd love to watch his reaction to becoming rich. i bet he'd just gamble it all away, tho
n/a Clark_Savage_Jr 2017-01-29
I want him to win big. Then I get maple syrup.
I want him to win so big that he decides to keep trading and loses even more.
n/a riemann1413 2017-01-29
which is guaranteed to happen, even if he is right. there's no win for /u/fscomeau. we might as well enjoy it
n/a ComedicSans 2017-01-29
I can see it now.
I MADE MONEY...
I AM THE SMARTEST MAN ALIVE!!!!
Invests everything in Bitcoin
n/a FreeRobotFrost 2017-01-29
Invest everything in Bitcoin
Bitcoin plummets
Side-hustle money to buy more Bitcoins at the new, discounted price
The alternative is to invest in an
ASICelectric beanie baby factory.n/a ALiveBear 2017-01-29
Schadenfreude aside, you really shouldn't speak ill of your lovers like that, rie.
n/a OldOrder 2017-01-29
Become rich AGAIN. Didn't he start with like 2 mil
n/a smedwed 2017-01-29
You know he's betting on it to crash massively right?
n/a cimarafa 2017-01-29
What products has he bought exactly? Is this a futures deal? In which case there's obviously a spectrum of potential losses/gains.
n/a smedwed 2017-01-29
Loads of puts between 120 and 100. A fuckton of 128 calls. It's 122 at the minute. He's OK to millionaire if it does down and fucked if it goes up.
n/a snallygaster 2017-01-29
Ya
n/a EU_Doto_LUL 2017-01-29
Apple just went full cuck publicly defending Muslim terrorists. He is fucked 😂
n/a riemann1413 2017-01-29
what are you attempting to communicate here, mouth breather
n/a EU_Doto_LUL 2017-01-29
Hi salty libshit!
n/a riemann1413 2017-01-29
what does that have to do with your above post
what you're saying makes no sense
are you saying that apple will tank because it "defended Muslim terrorists"?
n/a EU_Doto_LUL 2017-01-29
Hi salty libshit!
n/a riemann1413 2017-01-29
you do not communicate very well, and i have a sneaking suspicion you do not understand what is going on in this thread
n/a EU_Doto_LUL 2017-01-29
Hey again salty libshit!
n/a cole1114 2017-01-29
You know /u/riemann1413 is a registered Nazi right? He has over 9000 jew skulls with his name carved in them. So answer his question, cuck.
n/a EU_Doto_LUL 2017-01-29
Hi CTR!
n/a cole1114 2017-01-29
ha ha ha ha ha HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
Bernie would have won.
n/a EU_Doto_LUL 2017-01-29
http://s3.amazonaws.com/posttv-thumbnails-prod/thumbnails/56a80030e4b0f3f1795a9b2e/20160126_LAUGHINGimage.jpg
n/a zzork_ 2017-01-29
gunfire released
n/a GoMLism 2017-01-29
yeah but he won't lose it all regardless of what happens.
n/a LegitosaurusRex 2017-01-29
Huh? Yeah he could. He said he has $325K, which he said could probably pay off his current debts. If Apple goes up to 128 or above, he'll lose like $275K, leaving him in a huge amount of debt.
If Apple doesn't go down, or only goes down a little, he'll lose $30K+.
n/a GoMLism 2017-01-29
When I said he won't lost it all I mean all of the 325k. I was unaware of his debt.
n/a SmurfPrivilege 2017-01-29
Reminds me of a comment I saw when I made the mistake of wandering into a trading forum.
..or something to that effect. Come to think of it, it might have been that subreddit. Such a bro-dude atmosphere. You could substitute NFL teams for the stock symbols and "yardage" for "earnings" and it would be a sports gambling sub.
n/a riemann1413 2017-01-29
they're like that irl too
n/a Allanon_2020 2017-01-29
Its a cross of 4chan and Mad Money
n/a none_to_remain 2017-01-29
I sometimes think of this like playing sports, like bros could compete and have fun playing in the rec leagues and the office beer/softball tournament... Except NYSE and NASDAQ don't have those sort of divisions, so these bros are prepared for the beer leagues and playing against the financial equivalent of the Yankees.
n/a definitelymyrealname 2017-01-29
I don't want to be a debby downer but this guy is full of shit. His story hasn't exactly stayed consistent over the years. It's a good read but I'm afraid he's approaching /r/relationships level of creative writing.
n/a IndianSurveyDrone 2017-01-29
This is the first I've heard of this guy, but I am skeptical this is real, also. I suspect OP will not deliver due to "technical difficulties" or something of that nature.
I bet you 5000 dollars he won't deliver!!! Wait....
n/a Kazimir-Malevich 2017-01-29
I'll take that bet
n/a ComedicSans 2017-01-29
This is like advanced suicide watch.
n/a GoMLism 2017-01-29
Keep in mind the holidays just passed.
n/a squarefaces 2017-01-29
Please consider donating to his patreon as it's clear both hours he spends day trading are hard work and he needs our help!
n/a fscomeau 2017-01-29
ET
n/a riemann1413 2017-01-29
...dude
n/a fscomeau 2017-01-29
Shit, thanks for warning me, I would have flunked this one bad during the stream tuesday loll
n/a riemann1413 2017-01-29
jesus fucking christ, dude
n/a ThatBRGuy 2017-01-29
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAH
love this guy
n/a TheRootinTootinPutin 2017-01-29
ladies and gentlemen, the man who is gambling away $2.5 million
n/a SpookyMood 2017-01-29
I am excited like a 4 years old kid
Also he is not the antihero snally, he has made those kids thousands
n/a snallygaster 2017-01-29
True, if only by showing them what not to do.
n/a pm_me_pics_of_ur_nan 2017-01-29
Is he the type to potentially commit suicide on his livestream?
n/a Allanon_2020 2017-01-29
Maybe. Not only will he have lost all of the 2.5 million inherited but all that loan debt.
Fuck me I would think about it at that point
n/a Malevolent_USB_Drive 2017-01-29
y tho
n/a Tooshortmyass 2017-01-29
It's fake
n/a thirdegree 2017-01-29
For anyone else I'd agree, but this dude... maybe not.
n/a Vakieh 2017-01-29
This is the guy everybody is saying is actually a savant since even the safe stuff he tips actually does shit, right?
Might be a good time to invest big in Apple, if this is the capstone tip.
n/a UpvoteIfYouDare 2017-01-29
No, this is the point at which he drops the charade and takes the investment that he knows will be big, rather than the inverse. Everyone else will go big on the opposite end of the trade, they will get fucked, and he will cash in and laugh.
n/a Allanon_2020 2017-01-29
Dudes got a problem
Got 2.5 mill inherited. Gambled 500 k, lost it, gained it back and lost that and even more. Now on his last legs for a final yolo play to "get it back". That is a super bad gambling problem. If he wins he will just delay the inevitable and lose it all again.
Could of just lived off the dividends of 2.5 mill (around 50k a year). If he loses he might do suicide, not joking
n/a Malevolent_USB_Drive 2017-01-29
50k a year is not bad at all, totally liveable with a moderate amount of luxury.
And if you have a SO works you're sitting pretty.
n/a Allanon_2020 2017-01-29
No its actually pretty good for doing no work. Like take a lesson from your dead relative who was frugal and made that fortune that you inherited and now are squandering
n/a StrategicSarcasm 2017-01-29
Not bad? It's above the US average, which is above the US median. The majority of people are living off of less than 50k a year, and that doesn't include taxes, expenses, and debt. You can gamble away all the money you could ever want and still live better than almost everyone in the world.
n/a Prince_Kropotkin 2017-01-29
The funny thing is how mad many capitalists get about the idea of socialism because it supposedly incentivizes not working. If you have enough capital (from e.g. an inheritance), you can literally live on unearned income for the rest of your life.
n/a Works_of_memercy 2017-01-29
In case of capitalism it's not a problem that negatively affects society in any perceptible way, obviously. The argument is supposed to be utilitarian, not deontological.
n/a Prince_Kropotkin 2017-01-29
Are you seriously saying that unearned wealth and inheritance is not negatively affecting society in any perceptible way?
Sure, and the unearned title of king or queen in a monarchy had no negative effects either.
n/a Works_of_memercy 2017-01-29
No, I'm saying that the argument saying "but socialism incentivizes not working" does not appeal to moral outrage about lazy people, it says that socialism is unlikely to work because a lot of people would avoid working and there wouldn't be enough stuff.
This argument obviously doesn't apply to capitalism, unless you are trying to seriously argue against a dystopian future where most of the population are multimillionaires living on interest and there's no one to work in the factories any more.
n/a Prince_Kropotkin 2017-01-29
Why would people sharing the means of production incentivize them to not work? They still own the means of production, it's just shared. If this logic was a killer blow against socialism then it would mean that no capitalism firm could function as all the middle managers etc would stop working, as any successes of their own would just be reaped by those above them.
n/a Works_of_memercy 2017-01-29
First of all, the exact meaning of socialism is very vague (probably intentionally) and spans all the way from Sweden to Cambodia and could mean anything up to and including anarcho-communism (but still different from the "real communism" which is an unfathomable further development), so it's hard to pin that down definitively. But as far as it's guided by the principle of "from everyone by their ability, to everyone by their needs", there's a reasonable suspicion about the validity of the approaches to making the first part work.
In a capitalist firm, the workers who don't work are fired, which they don't want to be because unemployment is miserable existence. For further info refer to various explanations of how "poverty is backbone of capitalism" etc.
n/a Prince_Kropotkin 2017-01-29
No it's not. Socialism means the working class controls the means of production; alternatively put, in some way, the community has to democratically decide how the productive machinery of society is put to use. This has always been the definition of socialism, no matter which dictator or college kid decides otherwise.
How is this different than in socialism? If you are able to work your share and refuse then good luck sharing in the produced goods and services, unless there's enough extra left over.
n/a Works_of_memercy 2017-01-29
Which you forgot to quote and respond to.
Straight talk: if your rallying cry for socialism is that it wouldn't be as inhumane to poor people as your capitalism strawman, then you have to explain what makes people work 8-5 five days a week.
n/a TheChtaptiskFithp 2017-01-29
That's kind of a strawman though. The criticism is that sometimes incentives may get altered such that work is misallocated; for example, steel still being made to be sent into a glutted market.
n/a fatclownbaby 2017-01-29
If you invest 2.5M in low risk portfolios you are basically guaranteed ~80k a year for life.
n/a Drumpfucker 2017-01-29
50K on dividends is taxed less than at 50K from income, so you have even more money than the average working schlub
n/a EU_Doto_LUL 2017-01-29
Lol, the dude never inherited $2.5m. You people are so gullible
n/a Tsahandjobs 2017-01-29
50k a year in dividends would be a massive lowball, he could be pulling closer to 100k with almost no risk
n/a cimarafa 2017-01-29
Depends on how he invests, obviously. Buy a nice house in a cheaper area for $400k, put another $500k into t bonds, then the rest into the market. More than enough to live a good life, hire a cleaner once a week, drive a decent car etc... Especially given he could probably rent out a room for an extra income stream given he's single.
n/a evannever 2017-01-29
Yeah, I went through a year of trying to trade actively. It became apparent that I was gambling away my savings. Finally I got out with a 50% loss. Never again.
n/a Eitdgwlgo 2017-01-29
Trading is gambling but you're allowed to count cards. You just sucked at it.
n/a HillaryDidNothnWrong 2017-01-29
You really think anyone on Wallstreetbets doesn't have a problem?
n/a Allanon_2020 2017-01-29
Yeh, a lack of yacht problem
n/a ChipChippersonAMA 2017-01-29
With this guy's history I'd bet on aapl going through the roof
n/a Assy-McGee 2017-01-29
MUH JACK-LESS HEADPHONES
n/a shillmaster_9000 2017-01-29
He's retired several times btw
n/a Eternal_Mr_Bones 2017-01-29
At least he's not shorting penny stocks I guess.
n/a seal_charriot 2017-01-29
n/a Eternal_Mr_Bones 2017-01-29
I looked for it but couldn't find it. It was either on /r/investing or WSB
n/a DrunkAutopilot 2017-01-29
Poor unlucky bastard. Not one good break in his entire life.
Oh...
Well. I know what outcome I'm rooting for on Tuesday.
n/a Works_of_memercy 2017-01-29
Leaning on God with emotional blackmail like that is inadvisable.
n/a SWIMsfriend 2017-01-29
honestly surprised he didn't try kek
n/a real_human__bean 2017-01-29
Yeah, that's a very clear point in the Old Testament
n/a glmox 2017-01-29
oh god hes going to kill himself im so excited this will be best drama bomb
n/a snallygaster 2017-01-29
/u/fscomeau could I get some maple syrup when you win big? I'm rooting for you!
n/a glmox 2017-01-29
IT'S HAPPENING
n/a SoldierofNod55 2017-01-29
Pakistani Escort in Dubai
n/a Eight_Ace 2017-01-29
Why didn't he simply buy shares in the brokers instead? Watch Trading Places, they're bookies, and they always win.
n/a Emptydreamah 2017-01-29
Because if he BOUGHT shares, he'd lose money if APPL goes down (which is what he bets on). That's why his options (pun intended) were either shorting or buying puts.
n/a SovietWarfare 2017-01-29
For those who don't know /u/fscomeau is a well known trading genius, renown for his remarkably accurate calls.