Neat.

Snapshots:

1. This Post - archive.org, megalodon.jp*, ceddit.com, archive.is*

^{I am a bot. (Info / Contact)}

He mad.

I'm autistic so I have no attention span and my eyes just kind of gloss over anything that requires even the slightest intelligence to comprehend and understand but anyway /u/allaboutfenton /u/ogkappapride you are both wrong

Summary of their arguments:

Flip a coin. If it's Heads, you win $1. If it's Tails, you lose $2.

AllAboutFenton: "No way I play that game. On average you'll lose $0.50 per play."

OGKAPPAPRIDE:"Nuh Uh! If I play it three times and I get tails on all three, I win $3. It depends on the quantum nano-variance of space time."

OGKAPPAPRIDE's arguments are bad and he should feel bad.

Fuck /u/ogkappapride

"quantum nano variance of whatever the fuck" Why don't you actually say what I really said, or somehow actually dispute it instead of shitting on it by comparing to an iamverysmart?

Let's say you rode a specific Uber 3 times. That Uber was playing this game. Ride 1 fare: $25 Ride 2 fare: $50 Ride 3 fare: $75 You play the game each ride, and get 1/2 on Ride 1, Regular on Ride 2, and x2 on Ride 3. This effectively changes the Ride fares to $12.5, $50, and $150. The total price for all 3 rides is $212.5, while the original price without playing the game would be $150. The difference here is $62.5.

You're picking out one particular outcome that is unfavorable to the rider and using that to disprove AllAboutFenton's claim. This is like advocating for the lottery by citing an instance where a player came out ahead.

Here is the actual breakdown of ALL outcomes for your specific scenario. -1, 0, 1 indicates a loss, draw, and win, respectively. The average difference is a 16.6% increase in your cab fare. The dollar amounts you chose has no bearing on the expected differential.

Yes, I NEVER said that the expected differential would be different, but if you actually read what was being argued about, you would know that I was arguing about what would occur in a real life scenario. In a real life scenario, the expected differential is irrelevant because of the fact that you won't be using the same Uber an infinite number of times, which I believe I stated at least twice.

I chose random dollar amounts to replicate how randomness makes that expected differential irrelevant, which subsequently made his dumbass comment irrelevant. Why would you even give that percentage if it has virtually no effect on what would occur in real life? He even explicitly said "I would never play that game".

Everyone saying I was wrong fell for the same trap as you, thinking that I had no idea what he was talking about. I knew very well that the original average would be 16.6%, as I said in my first comment, but because of the fact that there always will be variance, that percentage doesn't mean shit. So when he constantly threw out the word "expected average", I knew what he meant, I just gave examples to show that percentage didn't mean anything, so it was useless to mention in the first place.

Your argument was that a game of chance has a random outcome?

Yeah "talking out of my ass"

Do you understand what average is? Because when someone says average it doesn't always mean expected differential, "bud".

I was talking about the fact that the average between those three random rides on the Uber would change, not the general expected average which I cited in my first comment on that post. Citing a part where I simply said "average" then promptly declaring I was talking out of my ass is pretty scummy.

In probability theory, the expected value of a random variable, intuitively, is the long-run average value of repetitions of the experiment it represents.

In the present context (games of chance), expected value is most definitely the same as the "average". In fact, my linked breakdown specifically computed it via the classic method of adding up the fares for the 27 equally likely outcomes and dividing by 27.

I'm re-reading your post and it doesn't look like you understand the concept of an "average."

Adding all 3 Uber new totals together, is $572.5. All 3 Old totals added together is $495. The difference between combined totals is $77.5, making the percentage difference 77.5/495, or a final percentage AVERAGE of ~15.66%. And what was my original claim, that with VARIANCE IN PRICE, like what will happen in everyday life, and variance in game results, this value of 16.6% WILL CHANGE.

Again, you're calculating the percent difference in cab fare of one particular outcome and referring to it as an "average."

Although the og guy is dumb, its actually not that clear cut. The problem is that x is not iid and the user controls the stopping conditions. For instance, in your example, i can keep doubling the bet until I win, then stop. So long as I have enough bankroll and you are willing to make the bet, I can guarantee I will come out ahead. The uber thing is trickier because although you do control the "bet", you wouldnt do this because you are just getting a discount, not a payout.

The real brilliance here is that this whole thing started out with ogkappapride agreeing with allaboutfenton, just with a couple of weird misunderstandings thrown in. Then they both tried to out-asshole each other by picking apart whatever was wrong with the other's posts.

It started because his reply to the first post was simply stating exactly what I said, but in a much more complex, around-bout way, with bits of misinformation about how the price of the fare changes the average. I called him out on the shit-post, and he melted.

I called him out on the shit-post

Such a badass...

You never fucking read my first post, you just saw I said 16.6% and went "Oh no he didn't" and proceeded to talk shit without reading the other 70% of the post

"And he melted" I'll let the down/upvotes speak for themselves, in addition to the 23,000 point post on r/iamverysmart dedicated to you.

Just forget it friendo. The guy is a hopeless retard and he won't even show us his bussy.

ogkappapride agreeing with allaboutfenton

/u/OGKAPPAPRIDE wasn't agreeing, he was trying to one-up a closed argument by providing an explanation that no one needed because the original comment was concise enough. Reddit is full of that ackchyually type of retard, and shaming them out of existence is one of the noblest things you can do online.

Actually the noblest thing you can do online is shut the fuck up.

I thought about it and it's actually deleting your account.

For the record, I meant "you" as you in particular, so.

Same.

"One-up a closed argument"

I thought it was clear I only commented to explain what he was saying, as the first time I read the comment I didn't understand what he was saying until I constructed an example to better understand it.

I thought it was an interesting concept, and I decided to elaborate. I didn't think it was that big of a deal, but then I get hit with the dickhead response that he gave accusing me of adding nothing to the conversation, when in reality I added two things. The fact that that percentage never stays constant, which he didn't say, and clarification/explanation which he didn't provide. Judging from the upvotes, I thought it was actually helpful to some people who didn't get where the 16.6% came from, but apparently people like you still like to talk shit about me even though I didn't do anything out of the ordinary.

So fuck you, maybe YOU didn't need the explanation, but who the fuck are you to judge for hundreds of others that the original comment was concise enough and the explanation was unnecessary?

if you don't understand where 16.6% came from, you could have said that the expectation of a discrete random variable is the sum of the p_i * x_i where p_i is the probability of the ith possible outcome and x_i is the ith possible outcome. So therefore it is 1/3 * .5 + 1/3 * 1 + 1/3 * 2 = 1.166667. In expectation, you pay 16.667% more.

If you wanted to make a point about how an given sample can vary from the expectation, you could have used concepts like variance, standard error, confidence intervals etc.

Instead you gave some muddled examples that are basically irrelevant, used words that are not used in statistics, and got in a fight about a topic you haven't studied. Sure, the other guy was kind a dick, but you need to back down when you don't know what you are talking about.

Don't even fucking try, I know where the 16% comes from well enough, and I also know it has nothing to do with fucking trigonometry. So don't act like an iamverysmart, because you obviously just spat up a bunch of bullshit and expected me to believe it.

You can easily test the 16% for yourself, if you take 3 rides with all 3 being 20$, it will be 10+20+40=70, while originally it would be 60. The difference is 10, 10/60 is ~16.6%. What I was saying was that if all of them werent 20, and one was 40 and another was 90, it wouldnt be 16.6%.

at this point, I am not going to keep teaching you math for free. If you want more explainings, make with the bussy.

HHAHAHA that's your explanation? I just showed you how you pulled something completely unrelated to the topic out of your ass to sound cool even though you had no idea what the fuck was going on, and your response is you are teaching me? LMAO I would love for you to try to go into a math class and teach them how statistics is related to pi and trigonometry, you fucking moron

So I'm still unclear. Are you going to ante

Lmao frequents the donald too

What a literal piece of shit, done replying

Fucking nerds need to shut the fuck up.

All part of my master plan to become a living meme.