16:00: A very large number of people are starting to get very hungry. Protesting starts turning to large-scale rioting, far beyond the capacity of the Met to handle.
They must have some bomb ass weed out there in the UK if it only takes that long for people to start burning shit down from hunger.
Technically we're pretty close, but I get the impression that America has a lot more of the super obese. So if you do it by 'how many over the obese line' it looks close, but if you did it by weight per capita America would run away with it, figuratively speaking.
If there's one thing history teaches us, it's that bad things happen even if you ignore the possibility. Just because you refuse to believe a disaster could occur doesn't mean it can't. It's human nature to avoid terrifying truths, but it's not a good survival trait.
If you'd told a Syrian in February 2011 that their nation was about to be fractured and destroyed by a devastating civil war, most would have refused to believe you. "Sure, it's a bit tense at the moment, there'll likely be some political disruption, things might get a bit fraught," they'd probably have said, "but it can't possibly be that bad. Sensible minds will prevail."
This sort of thing precedes most major human catastrophes. Notably, in the run up to the First World War there were a lot of people claiming a war between the major powers was now impossible; it'd be too economically devastating, too suicidal. But just because they didn't want to think about it, didn't stop it from happening.
Fortunately, even at its worst, Brexit won't be as bad as either of those examples. Nevertheless, it's extremely foolish - and very human - to just assume 'it'll all be alright' despite all proof to the contrary.
So, what is the worst case scenario?
The day comes.
00:00: Dover shuts its doors. Because we've left the EU without any sort of deal or plan, there's no contingency for the vast tonnage of traffic that passes through the port daily. They cannot possibly handle the current throughput with full tariff processing; the port simply lacks the necessary facilities. The A2 and A20, and then the M2 and M20, become a single vast lorry park - Operation Stack on steroids.
08:00: The London supermarkets open. The city wakes up to headlines about the near-total shutdown of trade to our biggest trading partner.
08:05: People suddenly realise that the UK doesn't produce enough of its own food, and that we're no longer capable of bulk import. Worry spreads through social media like flames on petrol. People start rushing to the supermarkets.
08:15: Panic buying has stripped the London supermarkets clean. Millions of Londoners - I've heard 6M, but can't find a source - realise that they literally don't have their next meal in the fridge.
11:00: Londoners are starting to get really, really frightened. Roads out of the city are at a standstill, major protests are spontaneously forming throughout the city.
16:00: A very large number of people are starting to get very hungry. Protesting starts turning to large-scale rioting, far beyond the capacity of the Met to handle.
18:00: The Houses of Parliament are on fire.
20:00: The UK government has completely collapsed, MPs have fled or been lynched, the pound has plummeted into worthlessness. The banks and the entire UK economy collapses overnight due to our currency suddenly failing.
21:00: A great many people go to bed hungry. Fires rage throughout London.
The various systems that underlie civilisation will break down extraordinarily quickly, especially once the currency collapses.
The electrical grid will probably keep going for a little while, at least until people start stripping up the copper cabling. Some bit of the civil service may manage to keep the power-stations running for a little bit, the French will probably keep some power flowing under the channel, the renewables won't go down. Expect the lights to stay on even if the government doesn't, possibly falling back to rolling blackouts, then total local blackouts over weeks and months as the infrastructure gets stolen.
The mobile networks will go down immediately, especially in high-pop areas, as everyone in Britain starts making panic calls. Hopefully the phone networks will be quick enough on the ball to promise to pay their staff in foreign currency as the pound plummets, probably the EU will pick up the maintenance bill medium term, so the network may hopefully come back online - although don't plan for it.
Everyone's British-based savings will, of course, be instantly rendered worthless. The whole financial system will disappear as a factor pretty much immediately.
Within a very short period, probably a few days, the EU will intervene as a humanitarian effort. People will die in the rioting and immediate aftermath, but we hopefully won't be looking at mass starvation.
The immediate transition period (4-6 weeks) will be very rough. All of the major population centres will empty out relatively quickly, a vast wave of terrified, homeless refugees will spread from each. Expect violent crime, looting, theft. Stay off the major travel routes; it'll probably be better to go cross-country than follow the motorways.
Short term (1 year), the UK population will dip dramatically as a wave of British refugees flee the country. Traditionally, in times of crisis, populations return to the family farm, but the UK has been industrialised for so long that for most people this is not an option. Again, violence and theft will be a major issue, the rule of law will likely be patchy. Expect local communities to become very important.
Medium term (2-3 years), the UK will almost certainly collapse into its constituent nations, and even those will barely qualify as unified countries. Northern Ireland may be absorbed into the Republic of Ireland. The EU and UN will probably send significant aid to keep people from starving, and the EU will probably invest significantly to try and get the economy restarted, but expect kleptocracy and looting to have utterly destroyed most UK infrastructure.
Medium-to-long term (4-10 years), the various bits of the UK will start to rebuild, their economies will start to have value. Almost certainly all fragments of the UK will apply to join the EU, and adopt the euro as a stable currency. Starvation will no longer be a risk, but there'll be very little worthwhile employment and UK talent will brain-drain the hell out, slowing economic recovery.
Long term (30-40 years), the fragments of the UK will rebuild to medium-sized, unimportant developed nations, assuming all else is equal in the global sphere. None of them will ever enjoy the economic or political prominence of the UK, but they'll be mostly OK.
Now, I stress that this is the worst-case scenario. It is, however, a high-impact/low-probability potential future, and the day it happens is too late to be preparing. Have a plan, have what you need ready beforehand, and then hope it all turns out OK in reality.
I can't tell everyone else how they should prepare, but I can tell you what I and my family plan, and maybe that will help inform your thought process. Note that this is not Doomsday prepping. Whatever happens, the UK will probably start to recover within a few years. You need to have a plan for a transition, and options for the short-to-medium term.
I'm very fortunate in that my family has access to a large piece of arable ground, and we've just built a house on it that's energy self-sufficient, well insulated, has access to a fresh-water well, a self-contained septic tank, and a well-equipped small workshop. We're also in a rural area, with a local community that's food-producing rather than consuming.
Each of my family will have a bug-out bag capable of getting them from where they are (e.g. London) up to the family home, on foot. This includes boots, water filters, high-energy-density rations, paper maps, etc.
We will have bought in advance a large quantity of rice and grain, which will get us through the winter until we can start producing food. We will also have a broad range of vegetable seeds (no monocultures), and the tools to farm them. This will get us through immediate and short-term food troubles.
We will keep the car filled with fuel ahead-of-time.
We have enough money in a foreign bank account and currency to buy four plane-tickets out to relatives in Canada, even at panic-prices, should matters somehow become even worse.
There is a terrifying trend amongst everyone I know to just assume 'it will all be OK'. This is an assumption based on some underlying idea that our current government is lead by competent people with some sort of long-term view and dedication to the public good.
Unfortunately, if you line that mental picture up with one of our current government, the two don't line up anywhere.
Don't just assume it will all be fine. Have a plan, get your options sorted ahead of time. Be prepared for the worst, and hope like hell for the best.
10 comments
1 SnapshillBot 2018-06-30
Neat.
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1 Starship_Litterbox_C 2018-06-30
They must have some bomb ass weed out there in the UK if it only takes that long for people to start burning shit down from hunger.
1 AnnoysTheGoys 2018-06-30
"No one respected the queue! It was anarchy!"
1 BussyShillBot 2018-06-30
You may like gobbling up the same shit content, that doesn't mean the rest of us need to like your shit sandwich.
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1 TrailerParkBride 2018-06-30
✊🏻✊🏻🙏👐🏻 Preach
1 geraldodelrivero 2018-06-30
lmao how does it take 16 hours for people to start starving
1 whoopsforgotemail 2018-06-30
arent the brits competing with americans for highest obesity rate? 16 hours is generous before the fats turn to cannibalism tbh.
1 SamWhite 2018-06-30
Technically we're pretty close, but I get the impression that America has a lot more of the super obese. So if you do it by 'how many over the obese line' it looks close, but if you did it by weight per capita America would run away with it, figuratively speaking.
1 Hemingwavy 2018-06-30
If there's one thing history teaches us, it's that bad things happen even if you ignore the possibility. Just because you refuse to believe a disaster could occur doesn't mean it can't. It's human nature to avoid terrifying truths, but it's not a good survival trait.
If you'd told a Syrian in February 2011 that their nation was about to be fractured and destroyed by a devastating civil war, most would have refused to believe you. "Sure, it's a bit tense at the moment, there'll likely be some political disruption, things might get a bit fraught," they'd probably have said, "but it can't possibly be that bad. Sensible minds will prevail."
This sort of thing precedes most major human catastrophes. Notably, in the run up to the First World War there were a lot of people claiming a war between the major powers was now impossible; it'd be too economically devastating, too suicidal. But just because they didn't want to think about it, didn't stop it from happening.
Fortunately, even at its worst, Brexit won't be as bad as either of those examples. Nevertheless, it's extremely foolish - and very human - to just assume 'it'll all be alright' despite all proof to the contrary.
So, what is the worst case scenario?
The day comes.
00:00: Dover shuts its doors. Because we've left the EU without any sort of deal or plan, there's no contingency for the vast tonnage of traffic that passes through the port daily. They cannot possibly handle the current throughput with full tariff processing; the port simply lacks the necessary facilities. The A2 and A20, and then the M2 and M20, become a single vast lorry park - Operation Stack on steroids.
08:00: The London supermarkets open. The city wakes up to headlines about the near-total shutdown of trade to our biggest trading partner.
08:05: People suddenly realise that the UK doesn't produce enough of its own food, and that we're no longer capable of bulk import. Worry spreads through social media like flames on petrol. People start rushing to the supermarkets.
08:15: Panic buying has stripped the London supermarkets clean. Millions of Londoners - I've heard 6M, but can't find a source - realise that they literally don't have their next meal in the fridge.
11:00: Londoners are starting to get really, really frightened. Roads out of the city are at a standstill, major protests are spontaneously forming throughout the city.
16:00: A very large number of people are starting to get very hungry. Protesting starts turning to large-scale rioting, far beyond the capacity of the Met to handle.
18:00: The Houses of Parliament are on fire.
20:00: The UK government has completely collapsed, MPs have fled or been lynched, the pound has plummeted into worthlessness. The banks and the entire UK economy collapses overnight due to our currency suddenly failing.
21:00: A great many people go to bed hungry. Fires rage throughout London.
The various systems that underlie civilisation will break down extraordinarily quickly, especially once the currency collapses.
The electrical grid will probably keep going for a little while, at least until people start stripping up the copper cabling. Some bit of the civil service may manage to keep the power-stations running for a little bit, the French will probably keep some power flowing under the channel, the renewables won't go down. Expect the lights to stay on even if the government doesn't, possibly falling back to rolling blackouts, then total local blackouts over weeks and months as the infrastructure gets stolen.
The mobile networks will go down immediately, especially in high-pop areas, as everyone in Britain starts making panic calls. Hopefully the phone networks will be quick enough on the ball to promise to pay their staff in foreign currency as the pound plummets, probably the EU will pick up the maintenance bill medium term, so the network may hopefully come back online - although don't plan for it.
Everyone's British-based savings will, of course, be instantly rendered worthless. The whole financial system will disappear as a factor pretty much immediately.
Within a very short period, probably a few days, the EU will intervene as a humanitarian effort. People will die in the rioting and immediate aftermath, but we hopefully won't be looking at mass starvation.
The immediate transition period (4-6 weeks) will be very rough. All of the major population centres will empty out relatively quickly, a vast wave of terrified, homeless refugees will spread from each. Expect violent crime, looting, theft. Stay off the major travel routes; it'll probably be better to go cross-country than follow the motorways.
Short term (1 year), the UK population will dip dramatically as a wave of British refugees flee the country. Traditionally, in times of crisis, populations return to the family farm, but the UK has been industrialised for so long that for most people this is not an option. Again, violence and theft will be a major issue, the rule of law will likely be patchy. Expect local communities to become very important.
Medium term (2-3 years), the UK will almost certainly collapse into its constituent nations, and even those will barely qualify as unified countries. Northern Ireland may be absorbed into the Republic of Ireland. The EU and UN will probably send significant aid to keep people from starving, and the EU will probably invest significantly to try and get the economy restarted, but expect kleptocracy and looting to have utterly destroyed most UK infrastructure.
Medium-to-long term (4-10 years), the various bits of the UK will start to rebuild, their economies will start to have value. Almost certainly all fragments of the UK will apply to join the EU, and adopt the euro as a stable currency. Starvation will no longer be a risk, but there'll be very little worthwhile employment and UK talent will brain-drain the hell out, slowing economic recovery.
Long term (30-40 years), the fragments of the UK will rebuild to medium-sized, unimportant developed nations, assuming all else is equal in the global sphere. None of them will ever enjoy the economic or political prominence of the UK, but they'll be mostly OK.
Now, I stress that this is the worst-case scenario. It is, however, a high-impact/low-probability potential future, and the day it happens is too late to be preparing. Have a plan, have what you need ready beforehand, and then hope it all turns out OK in reality.
I can't tell everyone else how they should prepare, but I can tell you what I and my family plan, and maybe that will help inform your thought process. Note that this is not Doomsday prepping. Whatever happens, the UK will probably start to recover within a few years. You need to have a plan for a transition, and options for the short-to-medium term.
I'm very fortunate in that my family has access to a large piece of arable ground, and we've just built a house on it that's energy self-sufficient, well insulated, has access to a fresh-water well, a self-contained septic tank, and a well-equipped small workshop. We're also in a rural area, with a local community that's food-producing rather than consuming.
Each of my family will have a bug-out bag capable of getting them from where they are (e.g. London) up to the family home, on foot. This includes boots, water filters, high-energy-density rations, paper maps, etc.
We will have bought in advance a large quantity of rice and grain, which will get us through the winter until we can start producing food. We will also have a broad range of vegetable seeds (no monocultures), and the tools to farm them. This will get us through immediate and short-term food troubles.
We will keep the car filled with fuel ahead-of-time.
We have enough money in a foreign bank account and currency to buy four plane-tickets out to relatives in Canada, even at panic-prices, should matters somehow become even worse. There is a terrifying trend amongst everyone I know to just assume 'it will all be OK'. This is an assumption based on some underlying idea that our current government is lead by competent people with some sort of long-term view and dedication to the public good.
Unfortunately, if you line that mental picture up with one of our current government, the two don't line up anywhere.
Don't just assume it will all be fine. Have a plan, get your options sorted ahead of time. Be prepared for the worst, and hope like hell for the best.
1 FaygoMakesMeGo 2018-06-30
That's a lotta text just to say "EU is just jealous the UK can legally meme".