My chances are always 50% for everything. Am i wrong?

8  2019-05-29 by tyuijvhvhcfcjf

This might be hard to explain in English, but I want to try and see if this is a popular thought.

So these statements for me make a lot of sense:

And it's actually something I believe.

I've got a 50% chance to win the lottery tomorrow (if I play)

I've got a 50% chance to roll 6 dices and get 6*6.

and so on,

and so on,

My teacher once told me:

You can calculate the chances by 'lining up' the possible outcomes.

So in math: the chance to roll 6 with a dice is 1/6.

Because the outcomes are 1->6 (6 possible outcomes)

But for me: the chances to roll 6 with a dice is 1/2

My outcomes: Either you roll 6 (1) or you don't (2)

And I don't believe you can prove me wrong, because for me there is no real logic when u say something is 50% chance, so if u roll (+-) 2 times, one of them will be it. With other words: I can not win the lottery 500000 times in a row, i'd still feel like its a 50% chance to win it.

I realize that if they do tests with dices, and roll millions of times, each number will be ~16,6667% times rolled, but the next time i roll a dice, the only 'truth' i believe is: that i have got a 50% chance to roll the number I aim for.

I even conclude (right) now I don't believe in "% chance", because something might even be 1% or 99% and still be the same outcome everytime. I guess this is why my brain 'neutralizes' everything to 50%..

The actual question I want an answer for: Am I alone in this and/or does this have a name?

tl;dr Everything is either 0% or 100%. Everything else is 50% chance.

11 comments

yeah that makes sense

t. retard

I think this is like a demonstrative depiction of solipsism, or something.

I worked with a guy who thought like that. He was stupid.

The chance is 50% but the probability is lower

The probability of rolling a 6 six times in a row is 1 to 6 to the power of 6

sure why not

Yeah, fuck it, let him have his 50%

Based retard OP isn't ashamed of being a mathlet.

I sentence you to reading every single thing Yudkowsky has ever written.

I think I'd still preferLeague of Legends fan fiction and professional Overwatch teams' press releases.

Wait a second hahahha this nigga wrote this?

He must be dumber than the OP I stole this post from.