My chances are always 50% for everything. Am i wrong?
8 2019-05-29 by tyuijvhvhcfcjf
This might be hard to explain in English, but I want to try and see if this is a popular thought.
So these statements for me make a lot of sense:
And it's actually something I believe.
I've got a 50% chance to win the lottery tomorrow (if I play)
I've got a 50% chance to roll 6 dices and get 6*6.
and so on,
and so on,
My teacher once told me:
You can calculate the chances by 'lining up' the possible outcomes.
So in math: the chance to roll 6 with a dice is 1/6.
Because the outcomes are 1->6 (6 possible outcomes)
But for me: the chances to roll 6 with a dice is 1/2
My outcomes: Either you roll 6 (1) or you don't (2)
And I don't believe you can prove me wrong, because for me there is no real logic when u say something is 50% chance, so if u roll (+-) 2 times, one of them will be it. With other words: I can not win the lottery 500000 times in a row, i'd still feel like its a 50% chance to win it.
I realize that if they do tests with dices, and roll millions of times, each number will be ~16,6667% times rolled, but the next time i roll a dice, the only 'truth' i believe is: that i have got a 50% chance to roll the number I aim for.
I even conclude (right) now I don't believe in "% chance", because something might even be 1% or 99% and still be the same outcome everytime. I guess this is why my brain 'neutralizes' everything to 50%..
The actual question I want an answer for: Am I alone in this and/or does this have a name?
tl;dr Everything is either 0% or 100%. Everything else is 50% chance.
11 comments
2 sokoloveza 2019-05-29
yeah that makes sense
t. retard
1 TaysSecondGussy 2019-05-29
I think this is like a demonstrative depiction of solipsism, or something.
1 The_Great_I_Am_Not 2019-05-29
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/statistics-probability
1 Phantom_Engineer 2019-05-29
I worked with a guy who thought like that. He was stupid.
1 bareballzthebitch 2019-05-29
The chance is 50% but the probability is lower
The probability of rolling a 6 six times in a row is 1 to 6 to the power of 6
1 vtesterlwg 2019-05-29
sure why not
1 jollesonceffrey1968 2019-05-29
Yeah, fuck it, let him have his 50%
1 Moist__nuggets 2019-05-29
Based retard OP isn't ashamed of being a mathlet.
1 zhcyiD9-png 2019-05-29
I sentence you to reading every single thing Yudkowsky has ever written.
1 tyuijvhvhcfcjf 2019-05-29
I think I'd still preferLeague of Legends fan fiction and professional Overwatch teams' press releases.
1 tyuijvhvhcfcjf 2019-05-29
Wait a second hahahha this nigga wrote this?
He must be dumber than the OP I stole this post from.