Depends on how big a number you find relevant. If democrats lose 20% of the black vote they're fucked. The Black male vote for Trump increased from 13% in 2016 to 18% in 2020. The Black female vote for Trump doubled from 4% in 2016 to 8% in 2020. Those are significant gains. Telling black voters they're sell-outs for voting for a republican doesn't seem to be working as well as it once did.
"This is so personally devastating to me: the Black male vote for Trump INCREASED from 13% in 2016 to 18% this year. The Black female vote for Trump doubled from 4% in 2016 to 8% this year," Blow tweeted. "Also, once again, exit polls show a majority of White women voting for Trump."
He continued, "Also, the percentage of LGBT voting for Trump doubled from 2016. DOUBLED!!! This is why LGBT people of color don’t really trust the White gays. Yes, I said what I said. Period."
"Also, the percentage of Latinos and Asians voting for Trump INCREASED from 2016, according to exit polls. Yet more evidence that we can’t depend on the “browning of America” to dismantle White supremacy and erase anti-Blackness."
Overall, comparing 2016 and 2020, Trump gained 4 percentage points with African Americans, 3 percentage points with Hispanics and Latinos, and 5 percentage points with Asian Americans. The shifts described in Edison’s exit polls are verified by AP Votecast, which showed similar movement among black and Hispanic voters this cycle.
That's a significant shift considering four years of Orange Man Racist.
The DNC could also afford to lose 20% of black voters if the GOP lost even 15% of rural voters.
In other words, the DNC can't afford to lose 20% of black voters. It's not likely they're going to pick up rural votes while you mouth-breathers are doing your "inbred meth morons" routine.
You're looking at one source of information based on incomplete exit polling. Other sources using the same data show a much smaller swing towards Trump.
Seemingly that guardian article is just citing early exit polls from one source before any weighting was even done? I don't know, either way, the swing towards Trump as likely not 4%.
That's a significant shift considering four years of Orange Man Racist.
I mean he is a racist? The guy ran a campaign based on pure white idpol. The black men that did swing towards Trump did so for the same reasons men of most demographics did - the country is increasingly polarizing along gendered/education/regional lines.
Trump didn't even do all that well, he did worse than most previous Republican presidents with minority groups in recent history.
In other words, the DNC can't afford to lose 20% of black voters. It's not likely they're going to pick up rural votes while you mouth-breathers are doing your "inbred meth morons" routine.
Are you having trouble following what's being discussed here jubber?
We're talking about Trump creating a 3rd party. The DNC doesn't have to pick up 15% of rural voters. If Trump splits conservative voters all you end up with is 2 unviable conservative parties.
Rurals are a lost cause, they're increasingly irrelevant and the democratic party shouldn't bother trying to win them, but 15% of them going off to some Trump party would be good.
You're looking at one source of information based on incomplete exit polling
Oh, so now in addition to all your other problems you're developing problems with reading comprehension: It's two sources, one of which cites two polls that had similar results.
Edison Research is one of the only two polling outfits that still do exit polls (the other is the National Election Pool also known as NEP), and I shouldn't have to explain what AP is but given the half-wittery you're engaged in at the moment it wouldn't surprise me if I had to do so.
The DNC doesn't have to pick up 15% of rural voters.
Good thing, because that's unlikely to happen in the near future.
If Trump splits conservative voters all you end up with is 2 unviable conservative parties.
Trump's not a conservative, he's a populist, which is why he was able to expand his support in every demographic except white men, many of whom are like you and addicted to soy and the smell of their own farts. If Trump starts a third party he'll pull from both parties. It might hit the GOP harder than the DNC, but it's going to hit both parties. The GOP has decided to go back to the very shit that had people electing Trump in the first place. Mitch and his cronies are more worried about what the media will say about them than about pleasing their constituents, as if their behavior will make what the media says about them positive in any way.
Rurals are a lost cause, they're increasingly irrelevant and the democratic party shouldn't bother trying to win them
Not only is this exactly the sort of disdain to which I was referring, it's also the precursor to another round of "why don't those dumb, inbred meth addicts fucking their sisters vote for us?" Which is sure to happen the next time democrats lose some elections.
Oh, so now in addition to all your other problems you're developing problems with reading comprehension: It's two sources, one of which cites two polls that had similar results. Edison Research is one of the only two polling outfits that still do exit polls (the other is the National Election Pool also known as NEP), and I shouldn't have to explain what AP is but given the half-wittery you're engaged in at the moment it wouldn't surprise me if I had to do so.
Jubberm you're very much out of your league here bud. I am telling you right now that exit polling data is not at all reliable currently given the nature of the partisan difference in voting methods.
The source they're citing says as much:
While exit polls offer an initial indication of how groups voted on election night, they are not perfect. The polls are not precise enough to distinguish between, say, 53 percent support or 50 percent support from a certain group. Like any survey, they are subject to sampling error, and they rely on estimates of how many people voted in each group.
This is why I'm saying your claim of 4% is dubious. All said in done, it's going to be less than 4%. Or we might not even know, because exit polls even in non-pandemic years aren't all that reliable.
If you want to keep engaging in dunning-kruger, you can. But I am very well versed in polling and elections are my hobby. Trump probably increased his margins among black voters - but the increase wasn't drastic enough to be sure of exactly by how much by. We'll see what it looks like once the validated voter data starts rolling in.
This isn't even getting into incumbency. Did Trump actually expand his margins among any demographic due to shifts in voter dynamics, or did incumbency benefit him? And if so, to what extent?
This is why when we're talking about 1-4 point shifts, it's hard to know anything.
Doubtful. I'd have trouble believing the Klan was racist if that hadn't been well established before you shitheads started calling everything you didn't like racism, sexism, fascism, etc. You've all gotten so bad that WaPo ran an article this weekend that made Dave Chappelle appear prophetic. The whole lot of you have jumped the fucking shark.
Trump was unironically tweeting fake black crime statistics jubber.
Trump's not a conservative, he's a populist, which is why he was able to expand his support in every demographic except white men, many of whom are like you and addicted to soy and the smell of their own farts. If Trump starts a third party he'll pull from both parties. It might hit the GOP harder than the DNC, but it's going to hit both parties. The GOP has decided to go back to the very shit that had people electing Trump in the first place. Mitch and his cronies are more worried about what the media will say about them than about pleasing their constituents, as if their behavior will make what the media says about them positive in any way.
Jubber, stop trying to discuss topics you don't understand. Trump's core support base is the conservative activist wing of the Republican party. Trump in office governed exactly like a conservative. You can tell Trump a "populist" all you want, in substance all he did was push conservative agenda and engage in racial demagoguery.
Trump is one of the least popular presidents in US history. The idea he's going to start a competitive 3rd party is just a delusion.
The man can't even win elections as a Republican. Trump is not going to pull any relevant number of people from the democratic voter base. It will not happen, anyone telling you that it will happen is smoking crack.
Not only is this exactly the sort of disdain to which I was referring, it's also the precursor to another round of "why don't those dumb, inbred meth addicts fucking their sisters vote for us?" Which is sure to happen the next time democrats lose some elections.
Jubber, how exactly is this any worse or different than the shit rurals have been spewing about urban america for years? I don't care about rurals, they're irrelevant to me nor are they needed to win an election.
All Republicans do is attack urban America, make no effort to appeal to urban America. More people live in Urban America than rural America.
Yet we have clowns like you shilling this woe is me rural victimhood bullshit. Save it for someone that cares.
How would you know? I'll grant you that most of us here are playing checkers instead of chess, but you're still stuck on Chutes & Ladders, so don't pretend you're better than anyone else.
Trump was unironically tweeting fake black crime statistics jubber.
I have no idea what this has to do with anything in the paragraph I wrote, but I have learned that your befuddled musings are subject to an indiscernible logic all their own, and have ceased to question how you go from Point A to Point 2.
Jubber, stop trying to discuss topics you don't understand.
How would you be able to judge whether anyone understands a given topic? You're a witless moron who thinks being pretentious makes you smart.
how exactly is this any worse or different than the shit rurals have been spewing about urban america for years?
How would you know? I'll grant you that most of us here are playing checkers instead of chess, but you're still stuck on Chutes & Ladders, so don't pretend you're better than anyone else.
Jubber you realize this is literally my hobby right? Like did you even read what was said?
This is why I'm saying your claim of 4% is dubious. All said in done, it's going to be less than 4%. Or we might not even know, because exit polls even in non-pandemic years aren't all that reliable.
If you want to keep engaging in dunning-kruger, you can. But I am very well versed in polling and elections are my hobby. Trump probably increased his margins among black voters - but the increase wasn't drastic enough to be sure of exactly by how much by. We'll see what it looks like once the validated voter data starts rolling in.
This isn't even getting into incumbency. Did Trump actually expand his margins among any demographic due to shifts in voter dynamics, or did incumbency benefit him? And if so, to what extent?
This is why when we're talking about 1-4 point shifts, it's hard to know anything.
What about this seems incorrect to you?
I have no idea what this has to do with anything in the paragraph I wrote, but I have learned that your befuddled musings are subject to an indiscernible logic all their own, and have ceased to question how you go from Point A to Point 2.
Why would a non-racist running for president be tweeting fake black crime statistics jubber?
How would you be able to judge whether any understands a give topic? You're a witless moron who thinks being pretentious makes you smart.
Jubber you're claiming a man that did nothing but shill conservative policy and engage in racial demagoguery was a real "populist" or has some populist appeal outside of the socially conservative rural base.
He doesn't. If Trump had some wide-populist appeal he would have left office with more than a 34-37% approval rating. He wouldn't have been the first president since 1932 to lose the WH, senate, and house in 1 term.
Trump was bad at politics, and he wasn't a real populist at all. He was a grifter.
Such as?
Where do you think shit like this comes from Jubber:
Inb4 blormph patriot party is projected 20% by poooolsters yet snatches a narrow 2024 win after gaining the basketballamerican vote because cop mommy pulls a Nixon
The election was stolen, Jews and Negros rigged it, and every Republican Senator who certified the election is a traitor and needs to be primaried with a person who is actual loyal to Trump and the Cunttry!!!
I have been saying this for his whole term. Even though he ran as an R it was really the first third party presidential victory ever. What pisses me off the most about Trump is that he actually pulled off something that is damn near impossible in American politics but he totally squandered it because he couldn't be bothered to grow the fuck up for ten seconds.
We have two Trumps: Orange Man and Bizarro Trump. They both have dementia, and they're ostensibly in charge of their own party, so they get called 'daddy.' Thus we refer to them as DD: Dementia Daddy. We can tell them apart one of two ways. The first is coloring. Orange Man is Orange and Bizarro Trump is pasty white. The second way is by party affiliation, which is why we have Dementia Daddy(D) and Dementia Daddy(R), or simply DD(D)/DD(R).
46 comments
84 adminsare55IQ 2021-01-20
The democratic party should invest a ton of money into trying to make this happen.
Imagine the shit show of some little rat party just taking 25% of all conservative votes.
52 Zero5urvivers 2021-01-20
It won’t get 25% but even if it steals away 3% then the republicans are fucked for the presidential election.
29 jubbergun 2021-01-20
It will get more than that. A lot of GOP voters are tired of the GOP.
-9 AwanBros 2021-01-20
He said the basketball vote. That 13% will chop more off the Democrat dick than the Republicans.
38 adminsare55IQ 2021-01-20
No universe in which they take any relevant amount of black voters.
16 jubbergun 2021-01-20
Depends on how big a number you find relevant. If democrats lose 20% of the black vote they're fucked. The Black male vote for Trump increased from 13% in 2016 to 18% in 2020. The Black female vote for Trump doubled from 4% in 2016 to 8% in 2020. Those are significant gains. Telling black voters they're sell-outs for voting for a republican doesn't seem to be working as well as it once did.
12 adminsare55IQ 2021-01-20
Trump did like 1% better overall with black voters in 2020 than he did in 2016.
Either way I don't see how you go from 9% to 20%. The DNC could also afford to lose 20% of black voters if the GOP lost even 15% of rural voters.
This is also assuming Trump would take all conservative black voters, which is false.
7 jubbergun 2021-01-20
Hmmm...
It was also more than 1%:
That's a significant shift considering four years of Orange Man Racist.
In other words, the DNC can't afford to lose 20% of black voters. It's not likely they're going to pick up rural votes while you mouth-breathers are doing your "inbred meth morons" routine.
11 adminsare55IQ 2021-01-20
Few things here jubber.
You're looking at one source of information based on incomplete exit polling. Other sources using the same data show a much smaller swing towards Trump.
Seemingly that guardian article is just citing early exit polls from one source before any weighting was even done? I don't know, either way, the swing towards Trump as likely not 4%.
I mean he is a racist? The guy ran a campaign based on pure white idpol. The black men that did swing towards Trump did so for the same reasons men of most demographics did - the country is increasingly polarizing along gendered/education/regional lines.
Trump didn't even do all that well, he did worse than most previous Republican presidents with minority groups in recent history.
Are you having trouble following what's being discussed here jubber?
We're talking about Trump creating a 3rd party. The DNC doesn't have to pick up 15% of rural voters. If Trump splits conservative voters all you end up with is 2 unviable conservative parties.
Rurals are a lost cause, they're increasingly irrelevant and the democratic party shouldn't bother trying to win them, but 15% of them going off to some Trump party would be good.
6 jubbergun 2021-01-20
Oh, so now in addition to all your other problems you're developing problems with reading comprehension: It's two sources, one of which cites two polls that had similar results. Edison Research is one of the only two polling outfits that still do exit polls (the other is the National Election Pool also known as NEP), and I shouldn't have to explain what AP is but given the half-wittery you're engaged in at the moment it wouldn't surprise me if I had to do so.
Doubtful. I'd have trouble believing the Klan was racist if that hadn't been well established before you shitheads started calling everything you didn't like racism, sexism, fascism, etc. You've all gotten so bad that WaPo ran an article this weekend that made Dave Chappelle appear prophetic. The whole lot of you have jumped the fucking shark.
Good thing, because that's unlikely to happen in the near future.
Trump's not a conservative, he's a populist, which is why he was able to expand his support in every demographic except white men, many of whom are like you and addicted to soy and the smell of their own farts. If Trump starts a third party he'll pull from both parties. It might hit the GOP harder than the DNC, but it's going to hit both parties. The GOP has decided to go back to the very shit that had people electing Trump in the first place. Mitch and his cronies are more worried about what the media will say about them than about pleasing their constituents, as if their behavior will make what the media says about them positive in any way.
Not only is this exactly the sort of disdain to which I was referring, it's also the precursor to another round of "why don't those dumb, inbred meth addicts fucking their sisters vote for us?" Which is sure to happen the next time democrats lose some elections.
5 adminsare55IQ 2021-01-20
Jubberm you're very much out of your league here bud. I am telling you right now that exit polling data is not at all reliable currently given the nature of the partisan difference in voting methods.
The source they're citing says as much:
This is why I'm saying your claim of 4% is dubious. All said in done, it's going to be less than 4%. Or we might not even know, because exit polls even in non-pandemic years aren't all that reliable.
If you want to keep engaging in dunning-kruger, you can. But I am very well versed in polling and elections are my hobby. Trump probably increased his margins among black voters - but the increase wasn't drastic enough to be sure of exactly by how much by. We'll see what it looks like once the validated voter data starts rolling in.
This isn't even getting into incumbency. Did Trump actually expand his margins among any demographic due to shifts in voter dynamics, or did incumbency benefit him? And if so, to what extent?
This is why when we're talking about 1-4 point shifts, it's hard to know anything.
Trump was unironically tweeting fake black crime statistics jubber.
Jubber, stop trying to discuss topics you don't understand. Trump's core support base is the conservative activist wing of the Republican party. Trump in office governed exactly like a conservative. You can tell Trump a "populist" all you want, in substance all he did was push conservative agenda and engage in racial demagoguery.
Trump is one of the least popular presidents in US history. The idea he's going to start a competitive 3rd party is just a delusion.
The man can't even win elections as a Republican. Trump is not going to pull any relevant number of people from the democratic voter base. It will not happen, anyone telling you that it will happen is smoking crack.
Jubber, how exactly is this any worse or different than the shit rurals have been spewing about urban america for years? I don't care about rurals, they're irrelevant to me nor are they needed to win an election.
All Republicans do is attack urban America, make no effort to appeal to urban America. More people live in Urban America than rural America.
Yet we have clowns like you shilling this woe is me rural victimhood bullshit. Save it for someone that cares.
7 jubbergun 2021-01-20
How would you know? I'll grant you that most of us here are playing checkers instead of chess, but you're still stuck on Chutes & Ladders, so don't pretend you're better than anyone else.
I have no idea what this has to do with anything in the paragraph I wrote, but I have learned that your befuddled musings are subject to an indiscernible logic all their own, and have ceased to question how you go from Point A to Point 2.
How would you be able to judge whether anyone understands a given topic? You're a witless moron who thinks being pretentious makes you smart.
Such as?
3 adminsare55IQ 2021-01-20
Jubber you realize this is literally my hobby right? Like did you even read what was said?
What about this seems incorrect to you?
Why would a non-racist running for president be tweeting fake black crime statistics jubber?
Jubber you're claiming a man that did nothing but shill conservative policy and engage in racial demagoguery was a real "populist" or has some populist appeal outside of the socially conservative rural base.
He doesn't. If Trump had some wide-populist appeal he would have left office with more than a 34-37% approval rating. He wouldn't have been the first president since 1932 to lose the WH, senate, and house in 1 term.
Trump was bad at politics, and he wasn't a real populist at all. He was a grifter.
Where do you think shit like this comes from Jubber:
0 AlecOzzyHillPitas 2021-01-20
Go off king 👑
1 [deleted] 2021-01-20
[deleted]
6 AwanBros 2021-01-20
Oh Pizza, never change.
The black man has no reason to stay on the Plantation anymore. The Dems are the party of women and important victims. Men are unwelcome.
9 WithoutAComma 2021-01-20
This could not possibly be a more terminally online political take
0 AwanBros 2021-01-20
Come on 🍕you know better. Why treat the Negro like a plaything? Today's Negro is on to you white-guilt-ridden male-feminists.
38 Goes_Down_on_Women 2021-01-20
Inb4 blormph patriot party is projected 20% by poooolsters yet snatches a narrow 2024 win after gaining the basketballamerican vote because cop mommy pulls a Nixon
30 Doctor-Pavel 2021-01-20
Ross Perot 2.0, but even more insane.
QTARDS WHO LURK DRAMA, PLEASE MAKE THIS HAPPEN!
The election was stolen, Jews and Negros rigged it, and every Republican Senator who certified the election is a traitor and needs to be primaried with a person who is actual loyal to Trump and the Cunttry!!!
15 pepperouchau 2021-01-20
Chart Daddy could have saved America 😭😭😭
14 -M-o-X- 2021-01-20
If there was ever a conspiratorial thing Soros should do it is exactly this.
56 [deleted] 2021-01-20
I have been saying this for his whole term. Even though he ran as an R it was really the first third party presidential victory ever. What pisses me off the most about Trump is that he actually pulled off something that is damn near impossible in American politics but he totally squandered it because he couldn't be bothered to grow the fuck up for ten seconds.
24 EarlCampbellsMeat 2021-01-20
Sounds boring. A good looking powerful maybe even the wealthiest man came into our lives for a wild moment not a stagnant eternity✨✨👑🍔
19 idio3 2021-01-20
Shine on you crazy diamond!..
6 jubbergun 2021-01-20
"Well you wore out your welcome with random precision" is an apt description of DD(R).
3 idio3 2021-01-20
Well, he was caught on the crossfire of childhood and stardom, blown on the steel breeze...
2 MooseHeckler 2021-01-20
What does the DDR mean again?
4 jubbergun 2021-01-20
We have two Trumps: Orange Man and Bizarro Trump. They both have dementia, and they're ostensibly in charge of their own party, so they get called 'daddy.' Thus we refer to them as DD: Dementia Daddy. We can tell them apart one of two ways. The first is coloring. Orange Man is Orange and Bizarro Trump is pasty white. The second way is by party affiliation, which is why we have Dementia Daddy(D) and Dementia Daddy(R), or simply DD(D)/DD(R).
1 MooseHeckler 2021-01-20
Thank you I haven't kept up on drama happenings.
2 idio3 2021-01-20
Deutsche Demokratische Republik, AKA Best Germany.
2 MooseHeckler 2021-01-20
The only Germany.
11 TaysSecondGussy 2021-01-20
Don’t worry, it will never happen again. That was the point of Orange Man hysteria, really.
54 Zero5urvivers 2021-01-20
Image how owned the libs would be if they had to run against two conservative parties.
4 seenten 2021-01-20
At the same time though it'd give more credence for the Green party or something to come in and take a good chunk of their voters as well.
26 ForDramaAndBussy 2021-01-20
Extremely good for future drama, invest now
24 Eternal_Mr_Bones 2021-01-20
I thought this may happen, but not in this manner.
12 tenebrous_cloud 2021-01-20
Patriots in control
Trust Sessions
Wait...
11 tiptopkitkat 2021-01-20
Daddy should do it, because Repubs didnt support him.
5 Maskedrussian 2021-01-20
Isn’t this just metal gear but even more r-slurred?
4 heretobefriends 2021-01-20
*happy Democrat noises*
3 RedPillDessert 2021-01-20
FWIW: The subset of republicans who are favourable towards Trump: https://i.imgur.com/FHUnIab.png
2 Pepperglue 2021-01-20
I hope he does this, and hopefully siphons all the crazies from GOP so they can drop that luggage and shape up.