https://old.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/1fbs7it/elon_musk_the_first_starships_to_mars_will_launch/
!spacechads !ifrickinglovescience this is all the infamous "Elon time" but SpaceX will attempt uncrewed Starship flights to Mars in the next launch window (2026), to test landing capabilities. Late 2030s would be a more realistic estimate for crewed missions but it would still be cool
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Currently it looks like it will take about 10 launches of Starship to get to the Moon with all the refueling. In my expert opinion (having played KSP), if that's an accurate number it might take 15 to 20 launches to get to Mars.
Now if they want to return it might take another 10 launches from Mars, each of these ship having to be transported to Mars makes for over 100 launches. Refining fuel on Mars could cut this number down somewhat.
I like Starship but this sounds completely r-slurred. And we've seen that a full stack launch can't make it much further than LEO.
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Mars Gravity is weaker, it will be a single stage launch and fuel is set to he produced using ISRU. It's still r-slurred because you need a lot of power to produce all of that fuel and I'm not convinced a single-stage starship could go back all on its own, of maybe they're planning another starship in orbit for Mars-Earth transfer but you would still need to refuel.
I still think Mars missions will take a traditional NASA approach with Starship being used solely as a lander and with a transfer vehicle like Deep Space Transport being used.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Space_Transport
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I have no idea if this will turn out to be practical or not, but I wouldn't send a bunch of people out to another planet where their survival depends on successfully setting up an entirely new industry on another planet. We can't even imagine what could go wrong.
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