Thread theme

In my last state of the race post I discussed how Biden dropping out and J.D Vance hopping on board affected the race - tldr is that Harris has turned this race from a total Trump sweep to an incredibly close race that narrowly favours Harris. Since then, Walz was chosen as running mate (I had heard the name bounced around but didn't consider him viable, darn it ) and Harris has been officially nominated at a rather eventless DNC. Little has changed, other then Harris' steady climb in the polls - while Walz is the only man in the race to have a positive net approval rating (Walz is at 5.6% approval, Harris is at -2.3% approval, Trump at -9.7% and Vance at -10.3%), he's not going to be election defining. It's not looking great for Harris, as she leads less then Hillary Clinton won the PV by - but there's still two months left, so there's everything to play for.

Teddy Roosevelt believed that the Presidency is a rather powerless office, best used for raising awareness of issues - and he's correct. The President has very, very limited Domestic power. They really can't do much without Congressional approval, they can't even appoint people to the federal agencies (RIP CIA Director Robert Kennedy) Their power emerges mostly in foreign policy, but at the end of the day it's Congress that decides if America goes to war. So it will be the makeup of Congress that decides how the presidencies go.

The House

Neighbor there's 435 races I'm not tracking that.

The Republicans control the House but very narrowly, whoever wins the Presidency will likely win the House as well thanks to downballot voting (where people vote based on the top of the ticket - they're voting Trump, so they'll vote Republican for the Senate, House and Mayor or whatever)

The Senate

Despite Chuck Schumer being the Senate Majority Leader, the Democrats aren't technically the majority. In fact, Republicans have more seats in the Senate.

The Democrat majority is made up with 4 independents, 2 of those independents being nominated as Democrats in 2018. Joe Manchin of West Virginia , Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona , Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine . This means all the Republicans need to do is win two seats to get a Senate majority.

I'll only cover ones that are expected to lose their incumbent or are otherwise expected to be close - it doesn't take a genius to guess who will win in Hawaii, or Indiana.

Montana, Jon Tester (D) v Tim Sheely (R)

Incumbent: Jon Tester (D)

"I'm proud to support marriage equality because no one should be able to tell a Montanan or any American who they can love and who they can marry."

Jon Tester first won his seat in 2006, by just 0.9% of the vote - worth noting the libertarian candidate got 2% of the vote, making Tester's victory a very close one. Despite his narrow victory (and with some exceptions), Tester was a rather firm liberal ally of Obama. He would manage to win re-election twice, but his odds now are looking very dire. Firstly - Trump has gotten personally involved in the race, campaigning frequently in Montana with Tim Sheely. Secondly, Montana has voted Republican for President every year since 1992, and 1992 had Ross Perot in it.

The closest it's come to flipping Blue since is 2008, but not even Obama's once in a generation charisma and Bush screwing the pooch royally could flip it blue. Finally, Tester's co-Senator is a Republican that won by 11%, the Governor of Montana is a Republican that won by about 15%, while Tester himself has never won by more then 2%.

Tester has a record of narrowly winning in unfavourable environments, but I just don't see it for him. Montana is a very safe Republican win.

West Virginia, Jim Justice (R) v Glenn Elliot

Incumbent: Joe Manchin (I)

"I'll take on Washington and this administration to get the government off of our backs, and out of our pockets."

Manchin, the unappreciated gem of the Democrats. Sure, in a lot of ways Manchin is a DINO - NRA endorsed, climate denier, fiscal conservative, so on and so forth. But this one is as simple as looking at the stats - in 2012, WV voted for Romney over Obama by 37%, Trump over Hillary by 42% and Trump over Biden by 39%. By contrast, Manchin beat John Raese by 24% in 2012. He had a much tougher time in 2018, winning by 3%, but shit. The guy still won as a Democrat!

To understand how astonishing Manchin's ability to win as a Democrat is, his co-Senator (a Republican) won her first election by 24% in 2014 and 43% in 2020. There wasn't any vote splitting either - the Republicans are just that darn strong. Admittedly in 2016, a Democrat won the governor's race with 49% of the vote despite the progressive Mountain party vote splitting in the election...

But he defected to the Republicans and won re-election by 43% of the vote.

The numbers don't lie - if you're not a Republican or Joe Manchin, you're shit out of luck. And Joe Manchin isn't running for re-election, leaving the WV Democrats up shit's creek without a paddle, and it doesn't even seem like they're this year. The 2024 Senate election is between Jim Justice, the twice elected Governor of West Virginia, vs Glenn Elliot, mayor of Wheeling. For context on how obscure Elliot is, he doesn't even have a wikipedia page.

So the Republicans need two seats to get a Senate Majority. And they're virtually guaranteed two seats. Well, shit. The rest of this is pointless. The Republicans are gonna win the Senate. But by just how much? Let's keep digging - these races next races are ones that are expected to be close, something to expand a majority that the Republicans are flat out going to get.

Ohio, Sherrod Brown (D) v Bernie Moreno (R)

Incumbent: Sherrod Brown (D)

"To a trade unionist, a strikebreaker - scab - is the lowest form of human life."

The last time Ohio for a Democrat president was 2012, by 3%. In 2016, Trump won by 8% - and in 2020, an election he lost, he managed to win Ohio by the same margin, 8%. Trump's brand of politics has proven itself by poison nationally, but it's tremendously effective in Ohio - the former swing state is now correctly regarded as safe Republican. The fact Senator J.D Vance barely won Ohio despite his massive funding advantage speaks more to how much he sucks, not that Ohio is secretly a swing state - as seen in the gubernatorial race, where Mike DeWine won re-election by 35%.

Brown is comparable to Manchin, in his way, except the man isn't a DINO - he was even considered for Clinton's running mate in 2016 as a peace offering to Bernie Sanders, ultimately failing because the governor that would have replaced Brown had he won was Republican John Kaisch. Unfortunately for wokesisters, his record of victory as seen diminishing returns. He won his first race for the senate against DeWine in 2006 by 13%, then his second race in 2012 by 6%, but bounced back a tad in 2018 by winning by 7% of the vote. If the votes this year are the same, that means Brown loses by 1%.

Ohio is has been utterly and totally solidified as a Trump state now, and Brown running is during a Presidential election - he's in deep shit. He has two saving graces however - one, Brown is personally quite popular. Ohio likes the guy! He's mastered the use of language to keep up with Ohio's shift to populism, and can keep up with the best of them when it comes to ranting about elites looking down on workers. Secondly, his opponent Bernie Moreno is on record for a total abortion ban. If Brown is able to turn the race to a referendum on , Brown wins. We know this because in 2023 Ohio literally held a referendum on it, and the baby killers won handily.

Brown is in a difficult spot, but the race is far from unwinnable for him.

Pennsylvania, Bob Casey Jr (D) v David McCormack (R)

Incumbent: Bob Casey Jr (D)

"Democrats in 2020 can't just drive by red counties. You have to stop, get out of your car, ask for people's votes, and engage with them on issues that relate to their lives."

If you just look at the results, Casey Jr should be perfectly fine. Biden won in 2020, Shapiro and Fetterman ran as unabashed social progressives, Casey is an incumbent and his father Casey Sr was governor of the state. How on earth could Casey lose?

This ignores some crucial factors. Biden won by 1.78%, and Shapiro and Fetterman were blessed by truly terrible opponents. Shapiro ran against Doug Mastriano, a frothing lunatic that said woman that have abortions should be charged with murder , insisted that the 2020 election was stolen and put on his platform in 2022 that marriage is between a man and a woman. Fetterman's opponent, Mehemet Oz, wasn't as bad, but while Fetterman did run as a progressive, his campaign was built around attacking Oz as an outsider (since he was from New Jersey and had citizenship in Turkey).

By contrast, Casey is running against David McCormack. McCormack did some work for the Bush administration, moved to the private sector where he worked as a GOP donor. He has acceptably moderate stances, including relatively early support for gay marriage, and was headhunted by the Penn GOP to run for the Senate.

Casey is a moderate Democrat with family ties to Penn and a great record of winning, while McCormack is a very qualified moderate Republican. If I had to bet, I would give it to Casey Jr thanks to his incumbent status, but I think whoever wins this race will be because of the Presidential ticket. This one is far too close to call.

Michigan, Elissa Slotkin (D) v Mike Rogers (R)

Incumbent: Debbie Stabenow (D)

"Forget about whether global warming exists. My focus is on jobs."

Michigan is staying blue. Since Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 by 0.23% of the vote, Republicans have become convinced it's the new Ohio, despite the fact that since 2016, the GOP haven't won a single major election. there. Governor Gretchen Whitmer won her election by 10% in 2018, then her re-election by 10% in 2022. When it comes to federal elections, the margins are a bit better - Biden (remember that guy? Wonder what happened to him.) won Michigan by 3% in 2020, while Gary Peters won his 2020 race by a narrow 1.68% margin.

Debbie Stabenow won her 2018 race by an impressive 7%, but she's retiring this term. This means the race is two non-incumbents, giving neither side a major advantage.

: Erm Mr. R-slurredDramanaut, the 2020 Senate race also had no incumbents, and that was very close. How can you say Michigan won't swing?

Good question, myself. It's because the Michigan GOP is fricking bankrupt, having defaulted on it's bank loans. While perhaps they could have stood a chance if they had any money, watch the Republican GOP be buried in attack ads and slaughtered in the election.

Arizona, Ruben Gallego (D) v Kari Lake (R)

Incumbent: Kyrsten Sinema (I)

Krysten Sinema dancing while voting against a minimum wage increase bill

Sinema, what a weird freak. A former green party member that won her Senate race as a Progressive, she flip flopped hard into some kind of bizarre moderate -, becoming so hated by her party she had to retire from the senate at 48. This was a bitter disappointment for libbers, because it marked confirmation of a charming myth - that Arizona is a new swing state. In 1964, Arizona was the only state in America that voted for Barry Goldwater (that didn't also have Jim Crow laws stopping black people from voting) and from then on voted Republican in nearly every single election, from Nixon to Reagan to Bush to Trump, with a brief break in 1996 to vote for Clinton. Joe Biden managed to snag to the state in 2020 by 0.3%, which when coupled by Sinema's upset win in 2018, indicated that Arizona was a swing state.

It really isn't. Mark Kelly's win by 2.4% in 2020 is more indicative of his strength then Arizona going woke.

Having said that, I think the Arizona senate race is too close to call.

The Democrat in this race is Ruben Gallo, a fairly non-descript liberal with progressive leanings that had previously fought Sinema over her flip-flop once she arrived in Congress.

The Republican in this race is Kari Lake, 2022 Republican candidate for governor and fricking r-slur.

If anyone could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, it would be Lake. When she ran for governor, she spent a truly bizarre amount of campaign feuding with a dead man. After winning her primary, she declared "We drove a stake through the heart of the McCain machine!", at an event she told "McCain Republicans" to "get the heck out" and when talking about how the Arizona GOP was the party of McCain said "Boy, Arizona has delivered some losers, haven't they?"

Despite constantly shiting on McCain for no reason, she managed to lose her race by just 0.62% of the vote. It's fairly obvious that picking on a beloved, moderate, war hero who's death was relatively fresh in people's memory hurt her campaign, but she was still a c*nt's hair from winning.

Were Lake not running, I'd call the race a fairly safe Republican win. But with Lake in the race... god knows.

TRUTHNUKE ALERT - FLORDIA, Rick Scott (R) v Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)

Incumbent, Rick Scott (R)

(Ran out of photos to post, pretend an ugly bald dude is here)

"I don't look at polls."

Florida? Crazy Ron's Republican utopia? That's a close race?

The narrative that Florida one day took a redpill and became Hyperborea is a very strange one to me. Trump only won Florida by 3.5% in 2020, and while DeSantis fricking crushed re-election by 20%, that's because he was running with a massive fundraising advantage against a former Republican. In his first actual race in 2018 against Andrew Gillium, he only won by 0.4%. Gillum just the year prior was forced to give Florida $5,000 after he was found to have used state money to buy email software for personal use - DeSantis won by less then 1% against a thief.

And that brings us to Rick Scott, who in a fairly impressive feat, unseated an incumbent in his 2018 race. But he only won by 0.12% - he's not some Floridan juggernaut.

Scott has the advantage - he's an incumbent running against a no-name Democrat and he has $10 million more then her, he's got decent odds of winning. At the same time, it's not set in stone. Florida isn't this crimson red state that people seem to think it is, it's a still at heart a swing state. It's just a swing state that has narrowly swung Republican.

Of couse, perhaps I'm wrong. Perhaps DeSantis has been such a godlike leader of Florida he's changed the state totally, and his re-election will be standard for Republicans.

I doubt it though.

Conclusion

Harrisheads...

If Trump wins, and my prediction that the winner of the general will win the House, he will walk into the White House with an outright trifecta and a stacked supreme court. There's very little he won't be able to do, he could as a random example go to war with Mexico. By contrast, if Harris wins, she's stuck with a certain 51 Republican majority - and with the Republican style of politics being that of "massive resistance", turning even appointing a federal judge into a knock down, drag out brawl, she's set to be as impotent as, say, a senile old man.

As a random example.