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I studied the middle east. Israel is going to lose in the end.

Here is why:

A) Iran's GDP has continued to grow year on year and it is currently a healthy economy:

This means that the main rival of Israel in the middle east is a nation state that is growing in power year on year and will not over time become pro Israel or even neutral to Israel. It ensures that whenever Israel stops the current conflict, the next one will be worse with middle eastern organizations attacking Israel again in 10-20 years time.

B) Saudi Arabia cannot actively side with Israel even if it benefits them:

Saudi Arabia has stated it will not normalize relations with Israel until a Palestinian state is formed for the Palestinians. The current conflict has frozen the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and while Saudi Arabia continues to liberalize, that liberalization in no form guarantees Saudi Arabia getting along with Israel as a friend in the region. The populace of Saudi Arabia itself would likely turn against the monarchy if they ever made open gestures of goodwill towards Israel. This means Israel at best has neutral powers in the middle east, and at worst enemies, but never allies.

C) The Pro Palestine protests in the US are far larger than the Pro Israel protests

This would have been unheard of and unthinkable even 10 years ago. Based on the trends we see among the US populace, they have zero interest in supporting an Israeli regime in the middle east, and the support is by the political bureaucracy rather than the public which over time continues to grow more anti-middle east participation for the US. The current generation college kids being anti-Israel means the next generation of politicians will be anti-Israel. This puts a 20 year window for Israel after which the American elite will end up being anti-Israel, especially taking into account how heavy handed the institutions of the US have been against anti-Israel protestors to the point of making the US appear to not be a democracy even in name. Nobody who participated in the protests came out later thinking darn the Israeli's were actually right, but many people who were neutral probably came out thinking why the frick are we kissing Israeli butt this hard I don't want to support these guys.

D) As far as the average middle easterner is concerned Sinwar died as a Martyr:

For them the drone released footage of Sinwar shows a man fighting till his last breath in defiance against the Israeli occupation. For the Israeli's it shows a man dying a pathetic death. ( A pathetic death according to Israeli's is when it takes three tank hits, one MATADOR hit, a drone, and a sniper to kill a single man). The Israeli's made the mistake of thinking showing footage of the death of Sinwar would demotivate the average middle easterner but they do not understand the different cultural mindset of the middle east. There dying for a cause is something to be celebrated and considered heroic. Releasing the footage of the death of Sinwar struggling against the IDF till the last breath only guaranteed that the middle east will have more Sinwar's emerge in the years ahead.

E) The Isreali's keep shooting themselves in the foot with bad decisions:

13 years ago, Sinwar was am Israeli prisoner. They released him to the Palestinians along with 1026 other prisoners in exchange for a single Israeli soldier. Any person with common sense can tell you this was an r-slured decision. As nobody is worth releasing 1000 enemy combatants for. The Israeli's however go on to put such a premium on Israeli lives that they would release a 1000 potential threats for a single one of theirs even though those thousand threats could end up killing another 100 Israeli's down the line. Israel being Israel is pretty much guaranteed to make similar decisions again down the line. The downside of a superiority complex.

F) Israel has committed war crimes in their zeal to destroy HAMAS and other threats to Isreal:

The most visible of these is the destruction of medical facilities in Gaza making it impossible for any part of the Gazan population to seek medical treatment. This indisputably counts as a war crime. More than 11,000 children are also believed to have been killed in Gaza so far by more conservative estimates. Only in a mindset where an Israeli life is considered worth more than a middle east Muslim life can the attacks and the scale be justified in terms of how many civilian casualties have taken place. If you are not r-slurred, you might be able to comprehend why the middle eastern neighbors of Israel themselves may not consider this to be an equal exchange and carry on hating Israel for mass crimes against the Muslim populations of the middle east.

G) Israel doesn't understand that it is not the US:

Even the US invasion of Iraq after 9/11 may not have killed as many Iraqi's as the number of Gaza population so far killed by Israel since the beginning of this conflict. What Israel appears to be unable to comprehend of accept is that the US can get away with it because they are a continent away and even when they invade they do their best to limit their damage to the actual combatants and kills thousands of people in total across a decade instead of an year of constant shelling. Even by US we can do whatever we want war standards, this is a massacre being perpetrated by the Israeli's. A killing spree large enough in scale as to 100% guarantee that there will be further retaliation down the line no matter what the Israeli's do now.

Conclusion:

The Israeli's are behaving with the confidence of the US while attacking their enemies but they do not realize that the US only ever did that was because they were always safely a continent away. The US also was killing fewer people per year even during wartime standards and Israel continues to further lose global support over time. The pro-Palestine protests dwarf the pro-Israel protests in the US now and we can expect today's anti-Israel public in the US to be the anti-Israel politicians 20 years down the line. Israel is in time gong to end up stranded with zero support fighting off the entire middle east by itself. Sinwar's death made him a martyr to the average middle easterner and attacks would continue on Israel 10 or 15 years down the line even if Israel were to stop the conflict now. The very existence of Israel in the middle east creates a forever war and that will never change. A forever war and losing support consistently over time guarantees the state losing in the end. Factor in the Iran's economy is growing well right now and we can see that the attacks on Israel will only get worse in terms of capabilities over time.

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Iran and Hezbollah understood that Israel was on a timer due to demographic changes and Iran leveling up its nuclear program and military. The birth rate differential between Israelis and Palestinian is why Israel is funding their Orthodox community to spawn tons of babies despite those neighbors being obnoxious leeches on their government. With each decade that passed Iran and it's allies would be better able to defend Gaza in with conventional and nuclear missile systems as deterrence, and Israel would have less manpower to stop them.

But Hamas fricked it up with their attack last year. Even when they met with Hezbollah beforehand the Hezbollah officials asked for more time to prepare. Hamas went ahead anyways and it's resulted in Gaza being levelled and Hezbollah+Hamas getting their leadership cooked. The territorial gains Israel made are very real, and Israel will likely consolidate them even further. Sure the Palestinian resistance will continue, but it's taken huge blows that it will struggle to recover from in the next few decades.

The rest of the Middle-East would like to help the Palestinians in Gaza but they have their own problems to worry about. Saudi Arabia is pivoting towards being closer with the West, Jordan just wants to keep the peace as they've been burned by both Israel and Hamas before, and Egypt is in the same boat as Jordan. Erdogan from Turkey has postured a bit but ultimately Turkey and it's closest ally Azerbaijan are military partners who have their own battles to fight and don't want more Arab refugees flooding in. That leaves Lebanon, which Israel is invading right now, and Syria, who is in no shape to fight any sort of war right now after their brutal civil war.

Basically Israel is in a good position right now to do what it wants.

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is why Israel is funding their Orthodox community to spawn tons of babies despite those neighbors being obnoxious leeches on their government.

Wouldn't this completely backfire in the end no matter what?

Basically Israel is in a good position right now to do what it wants.

Yeah, but doing what it wants is still going to result in Israel being surrounded by nation states that despise Israel and terrorist organizations that would be attacking Israel in another 10 years time.

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Wouldn't this completely backfire in the end no matter what?

Probably. If I had to guess I'd say Israel plans on making even the Ultra-Orthodox neighbors be useful, as seen in the recent ruling that removed their military exemptions.

Yeah, but doing what it wants is still going to result in Israel being surrounded by nation states that despise Israel and terrorist organizations that would be attacking Israel in another 10 years time.

Iran might, which is why Israel is trying to get the USA to fight Iran now. But the rest of the Arab countries are becoming increasingly grillpilled and just want to improve their own economies in peace. These governments have been burned by the Islamist groups they've previously assisted and sheltered.

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Good last point.

I still think Israel is going to lose in the end because the Ultra Orthodox jews are going to out reproduce everybody else and become a default backwards Middle eastern people.

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The only smart point you've made so far. That said, we're already building backup gas chambers just incase those r-slurred freaks get too uppity.

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:marseyxdorbit:

Jewbros are setting up gas chambers in case the orthodox jews get too uppity.

You know what. I can't even be mad about you guys destroying the middle east anymore. You are all just equal opportunity r-slur hunters. Carry on then.

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Honestly it's a real concern for Israel. The competent people in Israeli (and Jewish) history have typically been the secular ones who don't have a high birth rate (well higher than the western world but still barely at replacement).

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In all of human history the top 10% appear to reproduce far less than the rest.

That's why the real challenge is to keep making the general populace smarter until even your r-slurs are smarter than they were 10 years ago.

I think if Israel is not destroying from outside, it will end up destroyed from within. Too many r-slurs inside having 7 kids per couple.

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:#marseywords:

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