It's basically everything I said except with more detail.

Notice how I already knew about the North Korean connection to the tunnel construction because I read it in some article Nicholas Blanford wrote in the 2000s. I'm so clever sometimes.

Netanyahu:

Hitlеr didn’t want to extеrminate the Jеws, a Muslim convinced him to do it pic.twitter.com/m06tLj66I0

— What the media hides. (@narrative_hole) August 17, 2024

Redditards are what the typical Nazi would actually be like

I checked there's no homeless drama today. If you find some post it yourself

This complex is called Imad 4, named after the terrorist Imad Mughniyeh who was sent to heck in 2008. Hezbollah claims there are several more like it. It is presumably dug into the mountains east of the Bekaa Valley along the border with Syria. Hezbollah says the missiles shown are precision guided and have a range of 140km which would just barely be enough to hit Haifa from there. I can't tell if the guy on the motorcycle is just going around in circles, but clearly the place is pretty darn big. In addition to Iran they've had North Korean advisors teaching them how to dig tunnels so they know what they're doing.

Roughly the area where I expect most of Hezbollah's tunnels. I had to draw the border myself by eye because Google Earth didn't feel like displaying that layer at the moment.

I mention Haifa because it's going to be one of the primary targets of Hezbollah in a full-scale war. Tel Aviv and Jerusalem are about 200km away from the area in the Bekaa Valley where Hezbollah's most powerful rockets will be firing from and in Jerusalem you've got to be careful not to hit anything of religious importance. Haifa is about 130km away, so it can be hit by smaller missiles with a shorter range. It's also the main port of the country. Most of Israel's trade passes through it. Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah has said that in the event of war they would target enemy economic infrastructure in the north, and there's no reason to doubt him. Crippling the port of Haifa would cripple the economy.

Haifa port complex with obvious targets marked.

There's worries about the oil refinery in Haifa. The port and its industrial complex is truly massive, about 5km across. Just looking on Google Earth I could see two big farms of oil storage tanks, two large chemical plants, and a power plant as well as the refinery. Some people there are afraid that if these are hit there could be a big explosion or a cloud of toxic gas or something. I think that's probably overblown. The authorities say they've moved the really dangerous stuff out, and crude oil doesn't explode. The port complex is definitely one of Hezbollah's main targets as they've said themselves, but if I lived nearby I would worry more about a getting hit by a rocket aimed at it.

I couldn't find any picture that shows just how huge all this is.

Looking south from the northern oil tanks.

Meanwhile Hezbollah isn't doing so well casualty-wise. They're up to 400 dead now including a few dozen of their Sunni allies. That's not really a significant number in itself as Hezbollah has tens of thousands of troops, but when you look at who is getting killed it's another story. That guy who got killed recently who they're so butthurt about commanded their military. Their forces on the border are divided into two sectors and the commanders of both of those got killed. Presumably a lot of the others were at least somewhat important.

A funeral for Hezbollah's casualties in Houla, South Lebanon, March 2024.

Diplomacy continues. It appears the deal would basically be a cease-fire in Gaza in return for Iran not attacking and Hezbollah to stop shooting. One of the current stumbling blocks is that Hamas is demanding a complete Israeli withdrawl from Gaza, but the Israelis want to keep some troops along the Gaza-Egypt border. I'm a bit confused by this. Maybe it's a language thing. In English "cease-fire" just means everyone stays where they are and stops shooting, so this agreement would be more than a cease-fire.

US envoy Amos Hochstein leaving a meeting with Amal chief Nabih Berri. You might remember Berri from the civil war.

I hope you f-slurs appreciate this because I'm sure I got some glowie's attention by spending so much time looking at likely targets for rocket attacks in Israel. After about an hour I suddenly had this pop up in Firefox every time I tried to go to a new page. I don't remember it ever doing that in all the years I've used it and there's no concievable reason for it. Why would I be forced to do the update immediately? Seems kinda sus to me. I've probably got Unit 8200 frantically trying to figure out what the Hezbollah code phrase "dude bussy lmao" means before it's too late.

Just kidding. I probably had another instance of Firefox running that was trying to update and things got screwed up.

JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Iranian media reports "in coming hours, the world will witness extraordinary scenes and very important developments." pic.twitter.com/Llsgvo65qb

— BRICS News (@BRICSinfo) August 2, 2024

This guy actually knows wtf he's talking about. Confirms some things I'd suspected, like that the fricking MEK are the fricking ones out in the fricking field actually physically doing the fricking assassinations. This was fricking something I'd never heard of but would explain a fricking lot:

One of the fricking factors that has enabled this level of penetration is the fricking degree of groomercord between the fricking various intelligence agencies in Iran itself. In recent years, the fricking IRGC has gradually been taking over all the fricking Iranian agencies and has succeeded in pushing out Iran's Ministry of Intelligence and Security, often referred to by its acronym, the fricking MOIS, which was fricking responsible, among others, for counterespionage. The fricking MOIS was fricking actually quite effective and successful for some time in dismantling a fricking number of foreign cells run by foreign intelligence agencies, including CIA spy rings, but when they were fricking forced out by the fricking IRGC, whose level of professionalism is fricking apparently not as developed, Iran became more prone to infiltration by intelligence organizations.

Goddarn fricking edgelord award.

She's a cute twink even if she's a woman

One day the Palestinians will bow down and apologize for what they have done. pic.twitter.com/iPs7NbqxAZ

— Yossi Goldstein (@YossiGoldstein8) August 12, 2024