It's mostly speculation but it's plausible. We know there's got to be quite a few Hezbollah officers working for Israel.

Young Tanzanians send a beautiful message of solidarity with Palestinians ✊🏻🇵🇸 pic.twitter.com/AO3uq1r9qj

— ADAM (@AdameMedia) November 3, 2024

Just fascinating the things zoomies will do because its the internet trend.

BREAKING:

4.6 magnitude earthquake strikes near Tehran, Iran pic.twitter.com/Ochq1LcBIp

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) November 3, 2024

Neither of these worth it's own post frankly, so I put them together

Lots of conspiracy theories that Iran either tested or messed up a nuke, or that SUA and/or Israel bombed one of their nukes. I don't know anything about Iran's tectonic history so whatever, but if anyone wants to check there are lots of twitter comments.

https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1gjaifz/two_of_irans_revolutionary_guards_die_in/

And the gyro crash. I'm impressed these guys even had the guts to climb the pseudo-copter considering what happened last time

I was wrong... about a lot of things and remarkably accurate about others. I planned to do a lessons learned thing after the war if it ended soon, but that isn't going to happen and I'm afraid with the election I'll forget about all this. Also a very large number of folks with special needs have become very interested in me and are telling me I said certain things that I actually didn't, so I ought to refresh their memory. Also I apparently lack humility. I never admit that I'm wrong and I think I know everything. I guess that's true if you ignore all the times I've admitted I was wrong and all the times I've not written about something because I don't know about it.

Pre-War

On Oct 7, this is what I expected if full-scale war broke out between Israel and Hezbollah:

• IDF will be completely unopposed in the air and use that to inflict heavy casualties, a few thousand at least. IDF will make devastating attacks on civilian infrastructure too.

• Hezbollah will respond with saturation attacks, firing so many rockets at once that Iron Dome can't handle all of them. These will cause significant damage to the economy.

• Hezbollah will also keep a lot of its rockets to use in daily harassing attacks.

• IDF will invade on the ground, advance very slowly (like in Gaza), and eventually run out of steam. They'll get farther than in 2006 but not all the way to the Litani.

• IDF will suffer from poor intelligence compared to Hezbollah, especially human intelligence.

• The war will last a long time. Much longer than in 2006. Months at least or maybe years.

Reality

So, how did I do?

IDF will be completely unopposed in the air and use that to inflict heavy casualties, a few thousand at least.

First part is a no-brainer.

Second part I'm getting right so far. Both sides agree that it's somewhere above 2,000 dead. If anything, I'm a bit surprised that after 3+ months of really intense bombing it's not higher.

Third part is true, but I wasn't completely right. There's targets that I assumed would be hit right away (airport, bridges) that haven't been and I never anticipated that Israel would go after individual bank outlets. Also they've destroyed some housing in south Beirut but I expected they would have done more by now.

Hezbollah will respond with saturation attacks, firing so many rockets at once that Iron Dome can't handle all of them. These will cause significant damage to the economy.

First part I was 100% wrong about. They don't seem to have tried to shoot more than 100 in a day, where I expected they would shoot 100 at once. I'm not sure what their logic was here. They need to hoard a lot of them to keep firing into the future, but I don't see why they didn't try it out at least once. Maybe it's the gradual way the war developed, where by the time Hezbollah was ready for that kind of escalation it was too disorganized.

Second part I was wrong about. There has been a disruption to the economy from the citizens of the north being forced to evacuate, but I expected that the rockets would actually hit something and life in Haifa would be disrupted.

Hezbollah will also keep a lot of its rockets to use in daily harassing attacks.

100% correct. They've kept firing daily for months and there's no sign of them letting up.

IDF will invade on the ground, advance very slowly (like in Gaza), and eventually run out of steam. They'll get farther than in 2006 but not all the way to the Litani.

Wrong, but not in a way you r-slurred chuds can gloat over. They didn't lose the ground war because there wasn't a ground war. The IDF crossed over in some sectors and blew up villages along the border. That's it. They've had about 30 killed to gain 3 kilometers in 3 months a month [thx @Mr_Hershey_Nesquik for catching this], so it's safe to assume that if there had been a real invasion it would have stalled quickly.

IDF will suffer from poor intelligence compared to Hezbollah, especially human intelligence.

What really happened wasn't even the opposite of this, it was the opposite of this x10. Somehow since 2006 the Israelis have developed an incredible ability to track down the locations of Hezbollah leaders. Not just the top level leaders in Beirut but also the military commanders at the front. It's to be expected that they have really good signals intelligence and access to American satellites, but they must have also infiltrated the organization in multiple different places. The beepers thing proves it. To be fair to me, nothing like this has ever happened in any war ever so it wasn't easy to predict.

The war will last a long time. Much longer than in 2006. Months at least or maybe years.

Again, this is a no-brainer. Nobody (except for some tarded chuds in here) expected that they were going to blitzkrieg to Beirut in a few days.

Assumptions

Let's look at some of the assumptions I made (I believe mottecels call these "priors") that led me astray:

• Israeli intelligence will be worse or on par with Hezbollah's. In the decades they had spent fighting Hezbollah they had failed to infiltrate or track down their leaders. Also Oct 7 proves that they're not supermen. I think I can be excused for this since nobody else in the world predicted it.

• Hezbollah has 150,000 rockets. After the 2006 war you started seeing articles about how Hezbollah was building up its rocket arsenal. There would be "estimates" over the years that they now have 10,000, 30,000, 50,000. For a while it plateaued at 100,000. Then in recent years it was bumped up to 150,000. I've always been skeptical of these numbers since there was never an explanation of how someone could know that. It was probably coming from counting how many boxes were being unloaded from planes, which is far from an exact science. So I suspected the number was exaggerated. Apparently it's not even in the ballpark. Since Oct 7 they've fired about 8,000. If they had 150,000 rockets they could keep up the current rate of fire every day for 9 years. They're not that patient. All the experts believed in the 150,000 number so if anything I deserve some credit for actually doubting it.

• We can apply what we know from the 2006 war to this war. This assumption is kind of mandatory because there's nowhere else to start from. For both Israel and Hezbollah that was the last time they were in this kind of war, so we don't have much else to go on. I actually did a pretty good job of extrapolating from that in some areas, like knowing that the IDF wouldn't make substantial gains on the ground. But their amazing feat of intelligence work completely shocked me.

Conclusion: All in all, I think I did fairly well. There were some big surprises but they were big surprises for everyone else too.

If you actually bothered to read this and want to point out some more mistakes I've made, please do so. Here's some tips:

• Talk to me, not your straw man of me.

• Don't accuse me of loving Hezbollah just because I don't personally identify with either side.

• Read carefully. Make sure you're not accusing me of saying the exact opposite of what I'm saying. That's happened a lot lately.

• If you feel that a relatively impartial observer talking about a war far away is the most offensive thing on this site, do some self-crit.

Nah quite happy with the state of my peepee and, while we are talking about it, so is your mom.

— Furious Jew 📟 (@Furious_Jew) November 4, 2024

This is a really weird thing to say to a random Jewish person

I know your scottish catho ancestors are looking up from heck so proud of you for continuing their antisemitic traditions 🥰

— school🎃boo👻horse (@horsegirl3005) November 4, 2024

That's not what I said at all. I don't think Palestinian people should be r*ped or murdered. I'll stand by that.

You said this. Do you stand by it?https://t.co/M6LUELVTA7

— Furious Jew 📟 (@Furious_Jew) November 4, 2024

Where did the Southerners move from before they lived in the south, think about this one now

— school🎃boo👻horse (@horsegirl3005) November 4, 2024

Lmao you larping posters don’t even talk about firebombing a Walmart https://t.co/qlrRJNmWpz

— simon (@simonblight) November 4, 2024

You obviously didn't. Prove it. Show us you donating everything you own to an indigenous charity. You said you would be happy to. Just do it.

— Furious Jew 📟 (@Furious_Jew) November 4, 2024

It's literally not. https://t.co/gFd3cmiNVS

— oldhollywoodfan (@filmclassics) November 4, 2024

Google “quit claim” and send it to a tribe of your choice.

— Until They Glow☢ (@nukepolicywonk) November 4, 2024

She isn’t serious and so she never will. She will continue to scapegoat Jews because it absolves her guilty gentile settler colonizer conscience.

— school🎃boo👻horse (@horsegirl3005) November 4, 2024

pic.twitter.com/XQbCmJa25v

— ROMAN SCHOOL BONDS (@LupusErogare) November 4, 2024

No, because it's a stupid point that has nothing to do with the topic at hand. I realize you're losing the argument and we both know it, but really try to stay on topic

actually, you know what? I'm gonna go do something else with my night. Become a lib; we're just better people

— Reasonable Doubt (@Redoubters) November 4, 2024

Literally google philosemitism is a form of antisemitism, numbnuts

— school🎃boo👻horse (@horsegirl3005) November 4, 2024

I hate the antichrist!

Video of the kidnapping:

: Oh? You're not in those tunnels any longer? Fine.

There's lots of rumors that Hezbollah has accepted in principle a cease-fire with Israel that doesn't include Gaza. It sounds quite plausible to me. This war didn't go how they (or a lot of people) expected it would and they at least need some time to regroup and figure out who hasn't been killed yet.

Also, as I've been stressing here for years and none of you r-slurs listened, Hezbollah is in a really bad spot in domestic politics right now.

Does this mean a cease-fire soon? Of course not. Even if both sides truly wanted peace it would take a long time to work out the details. But at least they can maybe start working toward that now.

Anyway, I'm not promising anything, but I want all you r-slurs to read and internalize this so that I don't hear a year from now "you said Hezbollah would never surrender!"

How the New York Times describes a post by actress Selma Blair vs what she wrote pic.twitter.com/FHvj4sKq57

— Hamid Bendaas 🇩🇿🇵🇸🇮🇷 (@HBendaas) November 2, 2024

plus some socialist drama:

And everyone on the left that's been doing the "this could cost her" bit about Cheney et al should be a lot more concerned that it will be framed as having worked, and now you're going to be the non-voting, non-speaking kiddie table members of a neocon party. https://t.co/DaNV3dSIMz

— austerity is theft (@wideofthepost) November 2, 2024

!jidf

Redditard lawyers aren't

This is the second time they bombed UN in two deys

https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1gf06dk/a_rocket_launched_by_hezbollah_terrorists_struck/

The genocide in Gaza has produced more CO2 emissions that the annual emissions of 135 countries COMBINED. We cannot separate the acceleration of climate catastrophes from the environmental cost of Israel’s barbarism. Zionism is not only destroying Gaza, it’s destroying our planet https://t.co/GCEuRNfc2u

— Amina Adébísí Odofin🪬 (@aminaodofin) October 30, 2024

True, thanks for reminding me 💯

— Amina Adébísí Odofin🪬 (@aminaodofin) October 31, 2024

lol

Also, the US military is the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world putting 56M metric tons of carbon in the atmoshohere every year or the equivalent of 47 million american households. All of this just to steal $2.5T of natural resources from other countries annually.

— ohhellno 🇵🇸 🔻 (@itsoverinnit) October 31, 2024

Donald Trump is going around telling Michigan Muslims he'll end the war, be the peace president, and how pro-Muslim (!) he is.

Meanwhile, Dems sent Bill Clinton to lecture Michigan Muslims on how it's all Hamas's fault that Israel is massacring kids and killing civilians holding… https://t.co/rsL6pVWbwy

— Mehdi Hasan (@mehdirhasan) October 31, 2024

!nooticers !chuds

Bill Clinton in Michigan:
"I understand why young Palestinian and Arab Americans in Michigan think too many people have died — I get that, but…"

"Hamas makes sure that they're shielded by civilians, they'll force you to kill civilians, if you want to defend yourself." pic.twitter.com/cYzlsmWTGo

— Prem Thakker (@prem_thakker) October 31, 2024

Arabs are like zombies.

"You entered Gaza (after Hamas's October 7, 2023, onslaught) to take revenge — as much as possible. [Against] women, children — everyone you saw. As much as possible. That's what you wanted," said Uriah Ben-Natan, the brother of 22-year-old Sgt. First Class (res.) Shuvael Ben-Natan, from the northern West Bank settlement of Rehelim.

"You were the happiest and biggest goofball in the platoon. We realized this for the first time when you set a house on fire without approval in order to boost morale," said one of his fellow soldiers in a subsequent eulogy at the funeral.

Ben-Natan's father David referenced his son's arrest last year for shooting dead a 40-year-old Palestinian man in front of his wife and children while they were harvesting olives in the West Bank.

Despite having been severely wronged, Ben-Natan put what happened behind him and decided that he was still going to enlist after October 7, his father claimed at the funeral.

At the start of the year, Iran only had four S300 surface-to-air missile systems. In April, Israel took out one of the missile systems in response to Iran's first ballistic missile attack. A senior U.S. official confirmed the airstrikes took out the three S-300 missile systems.