Vladimir Putin would lose a war against Nato in "three days", according to human rights activist and former financier for Russia, Bill Browder.
Fears the West could be pulled into direct conflict with Moscow have soared recently as Ukraine's allies consider allowing Kyiv to fire their long-range missiles into Russia.
There are also concerns that the Russian president could go nuclear if he thinks the West cross his own red lines.
But, Browder – who was the largest foreign investor in Russia until 2005, when he was declared a threat to national security and denied entry into the country – thinks worries over escalation are overstated.
"Putin thought he could win a war with Ukraine in three days, and it's now been two and a half years," Browder told Times Radio on Tuesday.
"If he were to initiate a war against Nato, he would lose that war in three days – and he's not going to do that."
Nato is a defensive military alliance and keen not to be pulled into a war against Russia – but it is seen as one of the world's most powerful organisations, with more than 3.39 million active military personnel.
For comparison, Russia has fewer than 1.5m troops in its army.
Browder continued: "Anyone who understands military strategy and military outcomes knows he is not going to do that.
"We effectively have two different types of people involved in the decision.
"You have the military men, who are all saying, 'This is nonsense, we should give Ukraine what they need.'
"And you have the non-military men, the policy men, who are analysts not soldiers, who are all just hiding under their desks and not wanting to be the person to take any kind of risk which would push Ukraine's interests forward."
Browder added that it was an "understatement" to say he was "frustrated" by the delays in allowing Ukraine to use the West's long-range missiles – made by the UK and France – called Storm Shadows.
While Ukraine does have access to such weapons right now, it is only permitted to use them for defensive purposes.
And, even if the UK and France give Ukraine permission to use the missiles for offensives, Kyiv would still need the go-ahead from the US to operate them fully because the weapons use American targeting systems.
Touching on the Kremlin's ongoing threats to go "nuclear" if the West help Ukraine too directly, Browder said: "Putin has already done everything we are afraid of him doing.
"The only thing he could do more is to initiate a nuclear attack, that's the big sort of boogie man.
"But if he does that, he ends up losing his alliance with China, losing his alliance with India, and there will certainly be a devastating response from Nato if he were to do that."
China's president Xi Jinping and India's PM Narendra Modi have both warned Putin against nuclear weapons in over the last few years.
Browder claimed: "From any sort of wargaming perspective, there's not that much of a downside whereas there is a big upside, which is Ukraine may be able to get the upper hand."
Putin would lose a war with NATO in three days. We should ignore Putin’s sabre rattling and allow Ukraine to use long range missiles to hit strategic targets in Russia. All military strategists think this is right. It’s just the appeasement policy analysts holding this up. pic.twitter.com/pX5v8XH0Zp
— Sir William Browder KCMG (@Billbrowder) September 17, 2024
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If he does that, it's Armageddon… but he also loses his friendships with other countries!!
Look at this military genius here.
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Also "If he initiate ww4 against NATO that he would lose in three days, but he is not crazy enough to use nukes that is his only defence against NATO"
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Still a loss any way you cut it
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Tactical nukes probably wouldn't cause Armageddon. Strategic nukes definitely would. I hope to not find out the outcome either way
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The fear always was tactical usage would escalate in a tit for tat manner. Cold War plans being declassified revealed that this was only wrong in that it the initial tactical strikes would be against nearly every army base, port and runway in Europe.
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Isnt the whole MAD thing kinda based on the idea that all these major countries have systems to respond practically the instant a missle is detected? I dont know how itchy the trigger fingers would be in reality, but I wouldnt count on rationality and careful decision making to prevail in that scenario
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MAD only works as a doctrine when ICBMs were borderline unstoppable in the 70s and the US liked Europe so much it didn't want it get glassed in the event they first-striked the Soviets. However ICBMs are killable now, and even wonder-weapons that could evade counter-measures are either too low in numbers or too low-yield to make MAD an actual problem in 2024 and the US doesn't like Europe nearly as much as it did back in the mid-20th century.
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You should killable yourself
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Nah. Gonna laugh as Yurop gets glassed first.
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Nuclear capable submarines are even more unstoppable and reliable than long distance ICBMs ever were.
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Thats what the cucks in Washington wants you to think. We can survive total nuclear war by trading California and New York to kill every Zigger, Chink and Jeet! A small sacrifice!
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Don't forget all the gooks being busily r*ped by the American soldiers in Seoul.
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Uhm ackthually, its Pyeongtaek ruralcels getting r*ped so it doesn't count
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We can also just encourage a Chinese Indian war. Nukes would fly but stay within the Eurasian continent. Jeets would destroy the three gorges dam killing hundreds of millions, and then got responded in kind by the Chinks
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Wait until the anti-missile ai drone swarms become a thing.
Imagine being able to deploy many thousands of micro drones to form a blanket over an entire area.
Missile defenses are and will advance faster than the missiles do when it comes to icbms, given the cost and time it takes to design and build new icbms.
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Lmbo.
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Theres only really enough active warheads for military targets at this point.
The logic being you want to wipe out as many nukes as possible so the exchange ends up being favorable.
Nobody outright wins but one guy is losing harder than the other. When you start going down the nuclear war rabbit hole "we survived with 60% of the population left" becomes a favorable outcome.
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The issue is just one has to get through defenses to obliterate a huge population center.
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That and everyone deciding to push the button and assuming every missile is fired with the goal of maximizing complete damage and destruction against the other country incase they planned the same.
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Makes sense, unfortunately the idea of a 'middle ground' between that and no nukes fired doesnt really make me feel comfortable either lol
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Well the middle ground would be the use of tactical nukes on military-only targets like bases, airfields or other nuclear launch sites.
Probably a bad idea of anybody ever chooses to use it to hit the capital in an attempt to kill a leader though since that'd just set a precedent.
Back then America had more a focus on the middle ground usage, like hey let's just juke the Korean-China border so Chinese don't help . Or let's just use a ton of nukes to make an African lake.
But then one journ*list opened Pandora's box by making everyone in the world aware that we can just fully kill each other by using the biggest nukes on every part of the enemy nation in the hopes it means they can't retaliate and if you don't do it first the other guy will
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Unironically a fantastic idea.
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Please aim for Joburg, it's a godforsaken hellhole
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I dont want to
@sneedman die. Im waiting for him to do it himself 
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he'll be fine if he only fires self-defense nukes
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Hurr durr look at this idiot analyst who thinks Russia wouldn't use nukes.
to be fair to you I am betting on Russia using nukes at some point. My bet is on a tactical nuke in Kursk if the Ukrainians get the long range missiles, with the bombing followed by deescalation as Russia threatens to nuke the rest of Ukraine as well if they don't give up. Russian history then talks about the sacrifice of the soldiers of Kursk to stop the world falling into ww3 which makes the Russians the heroes of their story.
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If Putin even tries to push the nuke button the consequences for Russia will make current Vatzigstan look like a paradise by comparison.
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I highly doubt those 50 year old rotting nukes could do more damage than a pipebomb by uncle ted
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Where did this meme that nukes are super scary come from?
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A three days special military operation to denazify Russia you say?
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just two more days!
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Its true and I totally agree but
Im not sure he is a credible source on the relative militaries.
For air superiority F35 vs the Su57 & J20 its just not fair, F35 can fire on both 80 miles before they can even see it and even that range is a limitation of the current gen AAM. Naval its even worse, coal powered aircraft carrier that doesn't work vs 10 the US have in operation at any time.
This is the natural consequence of Russia & China using what their military can do for propaganda while the US is stupidly modest and doesn't show off capabilities of many of the toys. Military industrial complex likes that arrangement because it allows congress to justify spending silly money, the US isn't equivalent to Russia or China it is dominant to a degree it really becomes bullying not war.
I do hope Putin tries something. Having a great reset where its made clear how absurdly powerful the US is would fix tinpot dictators trying to start shit and we could start spending less. Also force the US to finally admit they have no problem intercepting & destroying ballistic missiles but didn't want to upset the great balance that really hasn't existed since the early 80's.
We shouldn't execute Putin or Xi. They should be locked in clear plastic boxes and toured around the world like zoo animals so people can throw shit at them. They will be made to live, no easy way out like suicide or execution, so they know how utterly they have failed. Their families will be executed in front of them as a warning to the rest of the world. Frick with the rules based international order and your entire lineage becomes non-human.
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If Russia did that the US would just absolutely long-peepee them into oblivion conventionally
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Not enough
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine_familial_exterminations
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This guy's book was pretty good. Red Notice
Every book I've ever read about Russia lowers my opinion of it. The fact that some people follow a Russian's plan for a better system of government is so hilarious given how r-slurred and backwards they've been since the beginning of time
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It's truly marvelous how incompetent they are. Their entire history too. You'd think they'd luck into a good government eventually but nope
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Three days is generous. One carrier group could bring Vlad to the negotiating table in 24 hours
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Everyone who doesn't want to give Ukraine
military 
hardware I know irl are fricking military 
or ex military 
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Because they want shit that costs even more fricking money.
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oh yeah, that little thing. and you're saying that's his only option if NATO attacks?
fricking idiot.
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"3 day special military operation"
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lol lomao, kim jong un
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Well he's been losing one for over 2 years and he still survives somehow
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NAFO cope
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LMAO where have we heard three days before
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Come story, HuffPo
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Snapshots:
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/vladimir-putin-would-lose-a-war-against-nato-in-three-days_uk_66eac1d3e4b051614c508403:
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Vladimir Putin :
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Nato:
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Ukraine's:
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long-range missiles into Russia.:
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told Times Radio on Tuesday.:
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Russia has fewer than 1.5m troops in its army.:
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to go "nuclear":
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weapons:
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over the last few years.:
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pic.twitter.com/pX5v8XH0Zp:
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September 17, 2024:
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