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EFFORTPOST Today is big day for Ukraine

It's been 2 years since Russian retreat from Kherson. There are a lot of "technically" stuff like it wasn't a battle, Wikipedia don't call that event a battle, Russian retreated from Kherson earlier and etc. But if we go very technically we will end up with Ukraine winning 0 battles.

So it's been 2 years since last time Ukraine liberated a something bigger than a village

:marseyclapping: :tayclap:

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17313440025081954.webp

:marseyhesright:

What makes this even more special that it was before Ukraine got all the game changers nato stuff.

Like first leopard enter Ukraine in March 2023.

Let's remember some hype

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17313440362326062.webp

The first shipment of Leopard 2 tanks from Germany has been sent to Ukraine, the German defence ministry says. Eighteen cutting-edge main battle tanks were delivered after Ukrainian crews were trained to use them.

Since the Ukraine received around 300 leopards 2 tanks and around 500 leopards 1 tanks that Ukraine for some reasons doesn't use much.

Abrams didn't had any fancy stories. Only interesting story is that when Russia captured like 10 of those and there was visually confirmation of more than 20 of those destroyed it was announced that Australia is about to give Ukraine 49 more.

https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/media-releases/2024-10-17/australia-provide-abrams-tanks-ukraine

So it's clearly gov don't tell the real number to public.

Like for example people still believe Ukraine has only 108 Bradley. But early this year it was already assumed Ukraine got way more than 300 of those

Kyiv also has 31 Abrams tanks — a fraction of the more than 300 Bradleys it has received as of early July, according to Pentagon data.

Popular believe is also Ukraine getting old junk.

This is false since stuff Russian captured showed all the tech got deep modernisation and very recent one like Bradley's Russian captured in 2023 had 2023 date of modernisation.

For stuff like artillery and AD, Ukraine gets those straight from factories.

Many countries in east Europe like Poland gave majority of its stuff to Ukraine.

Last time Ukraine captured a village was during legendary spring counteroffensive, they liberated back then exactly 1 village and couple of hamlets. They lost it all since then. Lazy to check exactly dates but it's been over a year since they captured and lost.

This is how map looked when I left in August

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17313440027882066.webp https://i.rdrama.net/images/17313440034688718.webp

This is how it look after my return

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17313440041459746.webp https://i.rdrama.net/images/17313440047461348.webp https://i.rdrama.net/images/17313440054023504.webp

Added deep state map since its official government and military sponsored and it shows things even worse for Ukraine

https://i.rdrama.net/images/173134400596045.webp

So what we see Ukraine is losing ground at increasing speed and speed faster than Ukraine been losing ground in April 2022 or March 2022. A sign that attrition starts playing a role.

Western media now doesn't hide that Ukrainian don't want to fight and that Ukraine has hard time finding men

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-draft-female-conscription-valerii-zaluzhnyi-zelensky-1970608

Redditors been telling Ukraine should mobilise women for month tho

:marseyxd:

So since my absence Ukraine lost multiple towns and cities as you can on the map (they also lost stuff in other directions) and now about to lose Kurakhove an strategic city because there are barely anyone defending it and since Russian are already near Pokrovsk.

@Cobra_Cranberrymander <- this homosexual been telling me Russian won't reach Pokrovsk until 2028 because he calculated Russian movement with his epic math. I told him he is homosexual.

Russian would be able to relatively easy capture Pokrovsk and mirnohrad (combine their population is 160k) since there won't be any danger to get hit from flanks for Russian and after they capture pokrovsk there is nothing on Russia way until Dniper river since Ukrainian didn't build any defensive lines. Why because they are at media war where them building in dnipor region defensive lines will be seen as losing.

They losing huge chunks there

They of course love to lie since why would Russian blown up something that they without doubts will capture, they could had destroyed it long time ago but according to Ukrainian statements it happened in last days of that city being under Ukraine :surejan:

So the main question becomes what's Ukrainian goal in Kursk oblast. As you see in the maps, that place has no named settlements beyond Sudzha.

We heard their goal was to capture NPP, didn't happened.

To trade some soldiers, happened but Russia ended up capturing more Ukrainian soldiers in that Ukraine did and exchanging all their conscripts and now have an no prisoners rule in Kursk. Reason for it that Ukraine wants to trade only their elite soldiers and far rights.

Then other goal was to pull Russian soldiers from Pokrovsk, also didn't happened and it's seems they pulled soldiers from North Korea.

Then to humiliate Putin, that's a childish argument especially when Putin act like the good guy. Ukraine send all their elite stuff to Kursk to capture some 5k people town and ended up losing all its mines in Pokrovsk and from country that export coke/coal to a country that will import it. On top of it giving Putin an example that Ukrainian ain't good guys since they been telling about defensive war and then invade.

Western media in September already told Kursk invasion was a mistake and Ukraine should pull out side they are at hard disadvantage and wasting their best soldiers against Russian cops and soon against NK.

So why they still in Kursk ? Just to save face. Or mb hoping to hold it until Trump will be official president and get some trading chip. But it won't work out especially when Republicans showing sign they want election in Ukraine. Putin also pointed he won't deal with an unelected person.

Zelenskyy is mad at Trump because Zelenskyy won't survive without a war. The peace deal will be for Ukraine worse than one from 2022 and people in Ukraine already questioning why he didn't signed it.

But Trump is saving Ukraine because Ukraine now has no power to stop the grinding and no weapons will do it. Zelenskyy still has one fantasy though, getting nuked since it mb can bring burgers boots to Ukraine.

But last time I ended my long post with

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17313440068857496.webp

About them doing something stupid.

So here my favourite story since my absence

Guy named: Captain Oleksiy Mes, call sign 'Moonfish'. He was one of top Ukrainian pilots that did some excellent performance during first days of this circus he basically became the proto ghost of Kiev

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksii_Mes

He became the poster boy for demanding f16 and like long Ukrainian tradition, after coming from Burgerstan he died on his first mission. Ukraine gov refused to comment saying oh he crushed but we will find the real reason and got rid of that case. But many saying it was friendly fire.

And that's why I believe in Khohols. Who destroyed first Leopard, first Bradley, first Abrams, first challenger ? So of course they destroyed the first f16 so Russian couldn't flex

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrii_Pilshchykov

Ukraine basically lost all their best pilots from friendly fire and crushing

The situation is also extra stupid because Ukraine got Israeli modified mig29 that can use all f16 arsenal and more, those jets are better than the f16 they got so they waste their best pilots training for inferior jet just for propaganda reasons :marseythumbsup:

It's just a bit sadly that pro Ukrainian ignoring this big day, since it stopped being a celebration day and more of reminder that they had 0 success since then with all their high hopes

https://i.rdrama.net/images/1731344007047113.webp

Thank you for reading

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Can you folks even do some research before arguing

Yeah, how dumb of me to say the part of the country where a high-casualty war occurred is the shittiest part. :marseybrainlet:

You don't even understand the global effect of freezing Russian money. Banks are build by trust what west did is an illegal move that very strongly benefits China and pushing of de dollarisation. You really think they didn't thought it out when they started that Ukraine adventure ? Especially when since 2022 Russia was the most sanctioned country ?

I don't know about you but I trust the west thought it out better than Russia did. But if dictators want to de-dollarize they are more than welcome to own themselves :marseythumbsup:

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Yeah, how dumb of me to say the part of the country where a high-casualty war is occurring is the shittiest part.

Such smart backpedaling, you probably thought when you wrote this that you are very smart. By calling Ukrainian richest part the shittiest. But don't get me wrong I didn't expect you to know that civilian death rate is a lot lower in Ukraine than for example in Israel Gaza conflict. Or that Pokrovsk mines were working until 1 week before Russian captured those.

I trust the west thought

It would be stupid to trust the west when you are the prime example of the west

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Such smart backpedaling, you probably thought when you wrote this that you are very smart. By calling Ukrainian richest part the shittiest.

When did I call Kyiv the shittiest part?

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Giving credit to you, you never mentioned that you understand economics.

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17313739398879955.webp

Kiev resources are 21 billions. That place only offers services that are useless without resources. It also has no sea access.

Dnipro and Donbas is the only region that matters in Ukraine

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ok mercantilist

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You can't be serious. OK for a start if Russia were to keep it's current gains Ukraine still has access to the sea via Odesa.

Second, idk what this map you have is but Ukraine GDP is focused in Kiev and then secondly in manufacturing and industry in Dnipro, neither of which are currently under Russian control. If Russia and Ukraine were to agree today to a peace deal that saw Russia keep its current occupied territories Russia would get most of Donetsk (6th wealthiest region), most of Zaporizhzhia (9th), parts of Kherson (21st) Luhansk (the poorest region in the country). Russia would not even get control of the entirety of these regions, but even if they did the combined GDP of everything here is not even half of Kiev's and barely equal to Dnipropetrovsk's.

These are miniscule gains by Russian economic standards with the combined total gains adding up to be something like 0.7% of the current Russian GDP. To put it from another perspective, estimates from 10 months ago pegged Russia's current direct war costs (as in not including costs of economic decline or sanctions) at $210b or about 8x higher than all the regions mentioned above that it would have secured. If Russia could maintain the regions 2020 economies in a post-war context then it would take over a decade to recoup that lost value.

To swing back to another point from earlier, these 10 month old costs for Russia dwarf the amount of aid sent to-date by the USA. So yet another metric that daddy is BTFOing you on.

And lastly, none of these things even matter because Russian controlled slices of Ukrainian LAND is just that. Land. Russia will not be able to seize the economic output of its territorial gains because Ukrainian owned industry in those regions will not return after the war. They will move elsewhere in Ukraine and continue to benefit that country.

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If Russia and Ukraine were to agree today to a peace deal

Since I made my post Russian got 5km closer to dnipr region and now are just 15km away from it. Ukraine is losing at early days speed now. No mater if Trump or Harris would had won west would had pushed for peace because if Ukraine can't replace their men weapons are going to help.

Second, idk what this map you have is but Ukraine GDP is focused in Kiev

Kiev is capital it's gdp is service that's is useless. Capitals mostly create nominal gdp. Guys like you probably still don't get why country with gdp around Italy survived sanction of half countries that ensemble are half of world gdp. All those countries couldn't produce more ammo than Russia. That's gdp for you. And deep down you know Italy wouldn't had survived Russian situation.

These are miniscule gains by Russian economic standards

Blocking access to Ukrainian resources supports Russian monopoly. For example Donbas has gas (that now mostly in Russian control except that part till Izym but Russian are dedicated to take that city)

It's not much gas but it's many times more than rest of Europe has combined so it deletes the opportunity to cuck Russia

And lastly, none of these things even matter because Russian controlled slices of Ukrainian LAND is just that.

It controls over 50% of most important land of Ukraine.

Ukraine wouldn't had fought this hard for a region that is poor, useless and full with people that hate Ukraine. If Russia had captured Sumy instead of land they now possess Ukraine wouldn't had given much frick and agreed to give it to Russia long time ago

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https://i.rdrama.net/images/1701695785632276.webp

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