I remember some alt right twitter people at the start of the war talking about how the russian army was super powerful and was going to create a huge mercenary army full of seasoned ukrain vets and crush the decadent west. Flash back to reality and they've captured only slightly more than they did in the half war of 2014 at the cost of hundred of thousands of lives and thousands of tanks.
Nato didn't get 100% off scot free. Although a lot of the fancy tech paid off the fact that they couldn't supply an ally with enough ammo is embarrassing and shows that they were not prepared for a real war.
Anyways tune in next week for another episode of 10,000 Dead Slavs in a Corn Field.
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One common response when it's pointed out that you can't always tell is "well we can tell 99% of the time", or some other high percentage pulled out of nowhere. This is a clear overestimate of how often someone can tell, but let's charitably assume that that number is true for a moment and do some maths. If you could tell who was trans or not 99% of the time, that would still lead to nearly two thirds of the people you read as trans actually being cis.
The mathematics is clear, using Bayes theorem.
Even if we very charitably assume that the sensitivity and specificity of "we can always tell" in detecting a trans person is both 98% then they are still wrong 50% of the time and accuse a cis person of being trans.
This is because there are vastly more cisgender than transgender people.
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