There appears to be a 30 years gap between the competence of the average Ukrainian soldier and the average zerg rush Russian soldier. You shouldn't be having a stalemate against another army with tactics that are older than your grandfather.
The real embarrassment of the Russian-Ukraine war isn't that the Russians have a 2 day special operation going on for 3 years. The real embarrassment of the Russia-Ukraine war is that the Ukrainians are getting bogged down by the guys who would hit and explode their own troops in a warzone.
With the capabilities that the Russian troops are displaying, the death to kill ration of Ukrainians should be 1:10 yet they appear to be far below target.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/putin-orders-russian-army-expand-war-ukraine-rcna171429
Just look at them. Russia is still trying to win with a numbers game. Becoming the second largest military in the world won't win them the war but they are unable to accept this fact.
Ukraine is going to have no future at the end of this war, but nor is Russia.
Russia is keeping 1.5 million active military personnel at all times.
Based on the Russian hiring numbers. The Russians appear to be losing 400,000 troops per year who need to be replaced to maintain military strength.
In 2023 1.3 million children were born in Russia. If the above estimates are correct, Russians are losing 1/3rd worth of people compared to the number of Russian children born per year.
If you look at their population numbers by age, after the age of 30 the Russian female outnumbers the Russian male, in the age brackets before the age of 30, the Russian male outnumbers the Russian female.
The smartest thing that a Russian man can do after the war is over is to leave the country. He very obviously has no rights within his own country worth having him stay there for.
Conclusion:
Russia is either going to lose the war or be defeated by the aftermath of the war.
USD to ruble value has already crossed 105 ruble for 1 dollar.
Right now one Indian rupee is worth 1.25 rubles.
If the rubles value falls below that of the yen, they are done for. There is no recovering from that. Even the Japanese are not able to survive at those numbers.
It's Joeover for the Russian empire and the reason for it is that they actually didn't have enough human rights and human dignity for their people to want to stay. Nor the wealth distribution among the common populace to make them want to stay.
In a globalized world you have to either be very rich with equitable wealth distribution or you have to have very high standards of human rights and dignity. Otherwise your people just leave for better pastures.
All the smart Russians are going to leave for Brazil if they aren't allowed into the US or Europe.
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Russia is doing the same thing that it did in WW2, having a horrifically bad strategy to begin with and having a military that is full of people who are in their positions because of politics rather than competence and that is completely full of corruption, but then slowly developing an actually competent military over time due to the Darwinian pressure of having to actually fight a war against a peer adversary rather than just using the military as a way to steal taxpayer money. Time will tell if this evolution pays results fast enough to win the war for Russia in any meaningful way. I think that the next year will probably be the decisive one for this war, between Ukraine's manpower issues, Russia's economic issues, and the wildcard of Drumpf, who I have no idea what he will actually do about the war once in office.
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What Russia doesn't have is the Soviet Unions immense manufacturing capacity (and tons of freebies from the US). The Russian military hasn't developed meaningfully since the fall of the Soviet Union, and they have utterly failed to develop the precision combined arms capabilities the US has had since the 80s. They are still fighting wars like it's 1945.
They have seemed to adapt well to low-cost drone warfare however, which I suspect is something the US will struggle mightily with in our next war
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lol. Lmao.
The challenge for the US military has always been not overpricing everything. That low cost drone costs 10x more by the time it has been through American logistics.
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The Russians troops are still running over other Russian troops with their vehicles. This Darwinian pressure is taking its time.
As long as there are Ukrainians in Ukraine, the manpower issues are not a real problem in the way manpower issues are a problem for an invading force.
Wildcard of Drumpf is real. I don't think Russia will listen to Drumpf though, and Ukraine won't make peace where they have to give up their territories. So the only thing Drumpf can do is to stop supplying both sides.
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