Poverty is a given. Right now economically speaking they'd be better off just retreating than taking over Ukraine - replacing all of the infrastructure they've bombed to shit and demining the fields they need to farm will take potentially decades and will cost niggillions of rubles. And that's just Ukraine, you have military stock to replenish, veterans to reintegrate into society, wounded and crippled to care for, so on and so forth.
Szia_uramhung/aryan
Lois, democracy and liberalism is non-negotiable
1d ago#7397687
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Honestly depends on how much the russian demoralization and scare tactics work on western audiences.
If the EU and USA keeps up the supplies, Russia will have to face internally a lost war, crippling inflation and a recently laid of mass of people who can point at the cause, the current leadership.
If it doesn't, Ukraine falls, etc, then it will maybe will be able to keep the internal strife at a low point and Russia will only slowly decay away because of the aforementioned reasons.
I really hope Trump isn't actually serious 'winning' peace on russian terms for the domestic 80 IQ audience, but is willing to channel the dumb-r-slur energy of ruralcels into something productive for the hegemony of his country.
US funding to Ukraine will wither away. European funding to Ukraine will remain. Ukraine won't collapse. Russian economy will keep worsening as the war goes on.
Avalonthey/them 1d ago#7397354
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Depends on the post-Putin period. In my mind you can get a Russian (political) stagnation as "easily" as you can Russia orbiting a stronger EU ala Macronian ideals.
Which is why I said depends on how it all pans out. Noncommittal answer I know but Putin's successor left in a place of political strength + popular discontent vs his successor left in a politically weak place with strong popular backing operate as two entirely different regimes and so on.
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Half of these already happened
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Which half?
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Poverty is a given. Right now economically speaking they'd be better off just retreating than taking over Ukraine - replacing all of the infrastructure they've bombed to shit and demining the fields they need to farm will take potentially decades and will cost niggillions of rubles. And that's just Ukraine, you have military stock to replenish, veterans to reintegrate into society, wounded and crippled to care for, so on and so forth.
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first world expectations
First world expectations
True
Political suicide
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Honestly depends on how much the russian demoralization and scare tactics work on western audiences.
If the EU and USA keeps up the supplies, Russia will have to face internally a lost war, crippling inflation and a recently laid of mass of people who can point at the cause, the current leadership.
If it doesn't, Ukraine falls, etc, then it will maybe will be able to keep the internal strife at a low point and Russia will only slowly decay away because of the aforementioned reasons.
I really hope Trump isn't actually serious 'winning' peace on russian terms for the domestic 80 IQ audience, but is willing to channel the dumb-r-slur energy of ruralcels into something productive for the hegemony of his country.
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US funding to Ukraine will wither away. European funding to Ukraine will remain. Ukraine won't collapse. Russian economy will keep worsening as the war goes on.
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The war in Ukraine wouldn't have even happened if Russia wasn't already a regional power.
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Russia cannot be a regional power with China right next to it in the region.
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Idk what to tell you, China sure ain't hegemon of the caucasus yet
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Fair enough.
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Depends on the post-Putin period. In my mind you can get a Russian (political) stagnation as "easily" as you can Russia orbiting a stronger EU ala Macronian ideals.
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Why would Putin choose an anti-Putin successor?
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The question is whether he'll have much "choice" at all. After all Yeltsin "chose" Putin but he obviously didn't choose Putin.
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Putin is far more "secured" than Yeltsin though.
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Which is why I said depends on how it all pans out. Noncommittal answer I know but Putin's successor left in a place of political strength + popular discontent vs his successor left in a politically weak place with strong popular backing operate as two entirely different regimes and so on.
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fair
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