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Vladimir Putin would lose a war against Nato in "three days", according to human rights activist and former financier for Russia, Bill Browder.
Fears the West could be pulled into direct conflict with Moscow have soared recently as Ukraine's allies consider allowing Kyiv to fire their long-range missiles into Russia.
There are also concerns that the Russian president could go nuclear if he thinks the West cross his own red lines.
But, Browder – who was the largest foreign investor in Russia until 2005, when he was declared a threat to national security and denied entry into the country – thinks worries over escalation are overstated.
"Putin thought he could win a war with Ukraine in three days, and it's now been two and a half years," Browder told Times Radio on Tuesday.
"If he were to initiate a war against Nato, he would lose that war in three days – and he's not going to do that."
Nato is a defensive military alliance and keen not to be pulled into a war against Russia – but it is seen as one of the world's most powerful organisations, with more than 3.39 million active military personnel.
For comparison, Russia has fewer than 1.5m troops in its army.
Browder continued: "Anyone who understands military strategy and military outcomes knows he is not going to do that.
"We effectively have two different types of people involved in the decision.
"You have the military men, who are all saying, 'This is nonsense, we should give Ukraine what they need.'
"And you have the non-military men, the policy men, who are analysts not soldiers, who are all just hiding under their desks and not wanting to be the person to take any kind of risk which would push Ukraine's interests forward."
Browder added that it was an "understatement" to say he was "frustrated" by the delays in allowing Ukraine to use the West's long-range missiles – made by the UK and France – called Storm Shadows.
While Ukraine does have access to such weapons right now, it is only permitted to use them for defensive purposes.
And, even if the UK and France give Ukraine permission to use the missiles for offensives, Kyiv would still need the go-ahead from the US to operate them fully because the weapons use American targeting systems.
Touching on the Kremlin's ongoing threats to go "nuclear" if the West help Ukraine too directly, Browder said: "Putin has already done everything we are afraid of him doing.
"The only thing he could do more is to initiate a nuclear attack, that's the big sort of boogie man.
"But if he does that, he ends up losing his alliance with China, losing his alliance with India, and there will certainly be a devastating response from Nato if he were to do that."
China's president Xi Jinping and India's PM Narendra Modi have both warned Putin against nuclear weapons in over the last few years.
Browder claimed: "From any sort of wargaming perspective, there's not that much of a downside whereas there is a big upside, which is Ukraine may be able to get the upper hand."
Putin would lose a war with NATO in three days. We should ignore Putin’s sabre rattling and allow Ukraine to use long range missiles to hit strategic targets in Russia. All military strategists think this is right. It’s just the appeasement policy analysts holding this up. pic.twitter.com/pX5v8XH0Zp
— Sir William Browder KCMG (@Billbrowder) September 17, 2024
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Sensors detected 2.8 magnitude earthquake lol https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/earthquakes/quake-info/9611698/mag2quake-Sep-18-2024-BALTIC-STATES-BELARUS-NW-RUSSIA-REGION.html#google_vignette
Xitter thread about the attacked base:
Tonight Ukrainian OWA-UAV's successfully struck and have severely damaged the Toropets Northeast Ammunition Depot which has seen significant expansion since the declassified June 1965 report by the National Photographic Interpretation Center now known as the National Geospatial… pic.twitter.com/sASOM0dA69
— Intelschizo (@Schizointel) September 18, 2024
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- BimothyX2 : Unfunny, uninteresting and unrelated to drama
- KissingerFanBoyNoCarp : /h/sandshit
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Few Israelis from Aidar battalion🇺🇦
— 🇮🇱 🇺🇦 Knukli (@11Knuk123) September 12, 2024
🇺🇦🇮🇱♥️ pic.twitter.com/SZf42xInn5
Can't make this shit up
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I hope you can all appreciate why I've taken my time to make a statement.
— Lauren Southern (@Lauren_Southern) September 8, 2024
What has happened with the DOJ indictments and Tenet Media is obviously a serious matter. I’m treating it as such.
A few short facts.
I am not accused of any crimes and the allegations I’ve read about in…
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Death to ziggers
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“Founder 1” is Lauren Chen, who gained these contacts when she worked for RT between March 2021 and Feb 2022. pic.twitter.com/k22brlpMFf
— AG (@AGHamilton29) September 4, 2024
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🇺🇦 On the fifth day of competition at the 2024 Paralympics, Ukrainians won another 8 medals:
— MAKS 24 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) September 3, 2024
🥇2 gold, 🥈2 silver, 🥉4 bronze.
👀 In total, Ukraine currently has 35 medals and is in 10th place at the 2024 Paralympics. pic.twitter.com/oemcsn5NRd
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Are the rumours true? Is lavrov dead? Wtf.. pic.twitter.com/yn4W2GbdNu
— #NAFOViking (@nafoviking) August 30, 2024
Mandatory TDS
With reports of Lavrov’s death, I’m going to leave this here.
— Arlington National Cemetery isn’t trumps prop (@foolm1ns) August 31, 2024
When Russia won the Presidential election in 2016, and installed a shit throwing ape named trump in the White House. pic.twitter.com/x9vtVQeUcV
Lavrov is reportedly dead, so I'm just leaving this here for you pic.twitter.com/PmsnXfp3BL
— KT "Special CIA Operation" (@KremlinTrolls) August 31, 2024
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Russians just tried to blow up the Kyiv hydroelectric dam.
— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) August 26, 2024
If successful, this will permanently flood one of the largest cities in Europe.
Meanwhile, US forbids Ukraine from stopping it. pic.twitter.com/16paLGfG45
Ukros claim that ruskies used over 200 drones and rockets and that they destroyed most of them before they caused any damage
Good lord. The Ukrainian Air Force reported about the huge missile and drone attack that happened this morning. A total of 236 missiles/drones were used by Russia.
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) August 26, 2024
Shot down:
1/3 Kinzhal Kh-47M2 aeroballistic missiles
1/6 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
1/1 Kh-22 cruise… pic.twitter.com/tZjJk2SGfE
But the important part, Khohols, in some stroke of pure genius, built their capital city downstream of a massive dam, so big that the resulting lake is called the Sea of Kiev. For some reason they didn't consider what would happen to their biggest and most important city if the dam breaks, and considering the shit they pulled at Chernobyl there's always a non-zero chance that Kiev will be dragged into the Black Sea. Slavs
Anyway, Putin just droned the dam Didn't managed to break it tho. Although there's still time, and there can always be more attempts in the future
Video from /k/ about what would happen if the dam breaks, don't know or care how accurate this is
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Robert Magyar reveals details of a new program for Ukrainian drone pilots that offers financial rewards for hitting specific targets. The program also allows pilots to accumulate points, which can be converted into drone equipment for their units.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) August 23, 2024
The image shows a T-90 tank,… pic.twitter.com/yDh0YigI1O
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They are also putting mesh wire on random stuff
Mad max oil edition. pic.twitter.com/AVYkTSCUH2
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) August 23, 2024
And rubber
🤔 Russians have begun to cover tanks with rubber. pic.twitter.com/fPNbPh6Y7I
— MAKS 24 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) August 23, 2024