Entire nation states are going to depopulate before the end of the century.

Greece and Japan shows us the future of nation states that do not succeed. As a "Developed" economy fails and begins to decline, the only way for the people within the nation state to have their quality of life go up is for either:

1. PPP GDP growth to remain steady and high. ( Japan) which is only possible for very advanced developed economies.

2. People immigrating out of the nation state and the remainder being able to hold on to larger chunks of the resources lying about. ( Greece )

Most of the world is not the Japanese style of competent and would actually fall into the second category. Which means continual decline of populations in Eastern Europe and South America over time.

As of now North America, South America, and Asia have a population growth rate of 0.6%. Europe is the only continent with a negative population growth rate. It is a strong possibility that the population growth rates of both North America and South America are kept artificially up via immigration policy. In which case we can expect the population of North America and South America to keep growing at 0.5-0.6% for decades to come.

Europe does not have this luxury as there is a strong anti-immigrant sentiment on the continent. Europe's only choice is to grow horizontally.

We must also account for the fact that the species is expected to become a type 1 civilization by the end of the century, a civilization capable of controlling the climate on its own planet and have access to the entire planet's resources and energy. As a type 1 civilization with only 7-8 billion humans on the planet, everybody would be able to live a life of luxury with ease.

Do demographics matter for a type 1 civilization? Not really no. The primary advantage of demographics is in providing for ever increasing R&D input. Once a species is a type 1 civilization all the capabilities of a type 2 civilization are so far out there that humanity cannot little steps its way to it unless its willing to take a billion little steps that add nothing in the present or the near future or the far future. It is more likely that we would simply get stuck being a type 1 civilization and the way of life that comes with. Most of our wars are already cultural rather than physical. Even economic warfare is going down globally as there is more advantage to continuing business. Cultural warfare being the only means of conducting warfare means that global homogenization of values and lifestyles is what the future holds for the planet.

Globalization is where the future lies. What globalization tells us is that labor, food, transport, research, and specializations move wherever they provide the most benefits on the supply chain.

The system benefits most from having people living close to one another and aggregating together. Which means a species that reaches 100% urbanization rates.

Globalized trade means the best trade products winning out at the cheapest prices all over the planet. Which means everybody eating the same kind of food across the world.

Globalization means things costing the same across the planet. Which means global prices stabilizing across the world, which is only possible if everybody has the same incomes to be able to buy the same products. Which means global economic equilibrium is reached in the future across the world.

For a global supply chain that stable and large would require the end of wars which would only be possible through the formation of continental unions. So we are definitely getting continental unions.

Global supply chains are best maintained by giant corporate entities so we are going to end up with corporations with more power than any nation state as the corporation is an entity spread across the world and supplying the entire planet. Corporations will overtake governments and that is the next phase of civilization evolution.

By 2100 we can expect the entire planet to be a corporatocracy built off of the laws already in place across the world. Just as Samsung practically owns South Korea, we are going to see other developed economies owned by their biggest companies as well, as it is the only way to maintain GDP growth over time.

Ukraine is expected to be the first nation state that empties out, as their population is already too old to rebuild after a war, and their fertility rate and immigration rate was already abysmal before the war. Another example of population disappearance in the current era is the decline of populations on Island nations such as cook Island where the population is now below 1960 levels.

The population for most tiny nation states has already peaked and is now set for long term decline. After the extinction of villages and small towns, the smallest nation states follow as they no longer guarantee a good quality of life compared to the more advanced economies out there. For Example, Cuba's population is going down year on year right now at rates similar to some of the faster shrinking European populations.

In the future we can expect the shrinking of nation state populations to be the norm rather than the exception. With the smallest independent territories depopulating completely by the end of the century.

Currently the majority of the planet has a negative net migration rate, which means once population growth rates near zero, most nation states of the world will begin to fall into perpetual decline.

The majority of the planet is also growing its GDP at a slower rate than global inflation, which again implies that most of the world is going to have its quality of life go down over time and the only way to survive is to leave for better pastures.

Conclusion:

Smaller nation states are going to disappear altogether. As globalization continues to further open up borders, the only way for nation states to keep their populations rising is to guarantee continual growth, failing which the people disappear over time. There are hard limits to how far most nation states can grow. For most of the planet there is a stronger incentive to immigrate than there is to remain in place.

The US remains the future.

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