Top Drama

Relative Drama (takes into account the size of the subreddit)

autodrama: returning jobs to dramautists. Ping HeyMoon if there are any problems or you have a suggestion

https://old.reddit.com/r/popculturechat/comments/1ccrkxe/harvey_weinsteins_conviction_is_overturned_by_new/?sort=controversial

https://old.reddit.com/r/Fauxmoi/comments/1ccrtvx/new_yorks_highest_court_on_thursday_overturned/?sort=controversial

https://old.reddit.com/r/nyc/comments/1ccrjgq/harvey_weinsteins_conviction_is_overturned_by_new/?sort=controversial

https://old.reddit.com/r/law/comments/1ccrnhh/harvey_weinsteins_conviction_is_overturned_by_new/?sort=controversial

https://old.reddit.com/r/entertainment/comments/1ccrjeq/harvey_weinsteins_conviction_is_overturned_by_new/?sort=controversial

Harvey Weinstein's r*pe conviction overturned in New York

The disgraced movie producer was convicted of r*pe in February 2020.

The r*pe conviction of movie producer Harvey Weinstein has been overturned by New York's highest court.

The New York Court of Appeals, in a 4-3 opinion, overturned Weinstein's conviction on s*x crimes against three women, finding the trial judge "erroneously admitted testimony of uncharged, alleged prior sexual acts against persons other than the complainants of the underlying crimes."

The court said that testimony "served no material non-propensity purpose" and "portrayed defendant in a highly prejudicial light."

Weinstein, 72, was a well-known, powerful man within the entertainment industry and prosecutors said he abused his power to take advantage of aspiring female actors, like the alleged victims, to coerce them into unwanted sexual encounters. According to the prosecution, the quid pro quo of assisting them with their careers in exchange for sexual favors on demand was both common behavior and a well-known secret throughout the film industry.

Prosecutors said the testimony of women other than those whose claims formed the basis of the criminal charges spoke to Weinstein's state of mind to use forcible compulsion. The majority opinion, however, said that eviscerated the time-tested rule against propensity evidence, "which, in criminal cases, serves as a judicial bulwark against a guilty verdict based on supposition rather than proof."

Weinstein remains in prison. The Manhattan district attorney's office could decide to retry him.

Weinstein was also convicted of s*x offenses in Los Angeles and sentenced to 16 years in prison there.

!dramatards

https://twitter.com/stone_toss/status/1783496187250700338

https://stonetoss.com/comic/malgorithm/

SINGAPORE -- The car driver involved in a six-vehicle crash in Tampines that killed two people has been handed four charges.

Muhammad Syafie Ismail, 42, was charged on April 25 with dangerous driving causing death, dangerous driving causing hurt and dangerous driving. He was also charged with failing to stop after an accident.

The prosecution said additional charges may be tendered against Syafie, and sought an adjournment for investigations to be completed and for a medical report to be ready.

Syafie was offered bail of $30,000. As part of his bail conditions, he must not have contact with any of the prosecution witnesses and must report to the investigation officer when required. He must also be electronically tagged.

The prosecution said he should be monitored with an electronic tag because of the serious charges he is facing, and noted that he could be a flight risk.

In response, Syafie said: "I don't think it is necessary to put an e-tag on me as all my documents, my passport, have been seized by the police. I am on bail, and am already present today and will be present for all the court matters.

"But it is up to the court to make the decision."

Syafie arrived at the State Courts at around 8.30am with his arm in a sling. He was escorted by the police and Aetos officers.

His case began at around 10am. He was expressionless as he stood before the judge.

When the judge asked him if he wished to say anything, Syafie said he would be engaging a lawyer.

The Straits Times understands that Syafie was driving a black Saab, which was seen in dashcam footage posted on social media.

According to charge sheets, Syafie allegedly failed to stop at the red traffic light, which resulted in his car colliding with two cars before surging forward to crash into another car.

Meanwhile, the first car Syafie crashed into spun before overturning, and this caused it to collide with a van. The van then collided with a minibus.

The impacts allegedly caused the deaths of Madam Norzihan Juwahib, 57, and Afifah Munirah Muhammad Azril, 17.

Charge sheets also stated that Syafie's driving allegedly injured Ms Lee Yau Meng, 42; Mr Weng Haifeng, 42; Mr Chia Tong Chai, 64; and Mr Mohammad Azman Mohd Enjah, 39.

Two 11-year-old boys were also injured in the accident.

Those convicted of dangerous driving causing death can be jailed between two and eight years, and be disqualified from driving.

The offence of dangerous driving causing hurt carries a penalty of up to two years' jail, a fine of up to $10,000, or both.

On Syafie's dangerous-driving charge, court documents stated that he drove his car recklessly by making an abrupt lane change from lane two to lane one of a two-lane road to overtake another car.

He also filtered back “acutely” into lane two in front of the other car, resulting in a side-swipe collision, causing the car to veer to the left and its left tyres to graze the kerb.

He then allegedly failed to stop after this, despite being required to do so after an accident.

A pre-trial conference will take place on June 7.

He was arrested on April 24 after being discharged from hospital. His driving licence was suspended with immediate effect.

The police said investigations are ongoing for other potential offences.

The crash involving four cars, a van and a minibus occurred on April 22 at the junction of Tampines Avenue 1 and Tampines Avenue 4.

Madam Norzihan and Afifah, who died after the accident, were both buried at Choa Chu Kang Muslim Cemetery on April 23.

Madam Norzihan was a passenger in the van, on her way to work, when the accident occurred. The right side of the vehicle was badly dented. She was a senior technician at pest control firm First Choice Pest Specialist and had worked there for about 10 years.

Afifah, a first-year student at Temasek Junior College, was a passenger in a car, on the way to take part in her school's annual cross-country event.

Her father, Mr Muhammad Azril, a Police Coast Guard officer, was driving their car when the impact from the collision caused it to turn turtle with its doors flung open.

He was taken to hospital with kidney- and spine-related injuries.

Five other people, including the two 11-year-old boys, were also taken to hospital.

The offence of dangerous driving carries a jail term of up to a year, a fine of up to $5,000, or both.

For failing to stop after an accident, an offender can be fined up to $1,000, jailed up to three months, or both.

An American dad faces 12 years in prison for having a tiny bit of hunting ammo in his carry on bag in Turks and Caicos.

He could miss his son growing up over this.

Do not visit there until he’s sent home. Let @TCIPremier know what you think about this! pic.twitter.com/ssOjS5sOPE

— Robby Starbuck (@robbystarbuck) April 24, 2024

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1783131128922087840

Bruh it's just spare bullets, he didn't know it was illegal!

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1783146493731295429

Y'all

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1783145423978242252

https://twitter.com/shakoistsLog/status/1783271257628438555

Remember Brittney?

https://twitter.com/smalls2672/status/1783146569136496837

You really have to respect our FtM transgenders they try to pass much harder than their MtF contemporaries I haven't heard a single story about a MtF throwing a newborn baby in the trash but there appears to be many examples of FtM shooting up schools so I tip my hat to the transmen.

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ROCKVILLE, Md. (CITC) — The Maryland high schooler accused of writing a 129-page school shooting "manifesto" found the Nashville Covenant School shooter "relatable," according to charging documents.

18-year-old Andrea Ye, who authorities say identifies as Alex Ye, was arrested by the Montgomery County Police Department (MCPD) on April 17. The arrest followed weeks of joint investigation by MCPD and the FBI Baltimore Field Office into Ye, who attends Montgomery County Public Schools (MCPS) virtually.

In the "manifesto," Ye strategized how to carry out shootings at MCPS's Thomas S. Wootton High School and Lakewood Elementary School, according to authorities. Excerpts from some writings included in charging documents show the student also researched other school shootings, including those at Columbine High School in Colorado and The Covenant School in Nashville.

"The shooter was also trans. His name was Aidan [sic] Hale, though the news keep calling him Audrey," Ye allegedly wrote of the Covenant shooter. "Makes me want to change my name legally before I commit a shooting to make sure the news doesn't misgender me."

28-year-old Audrey Hale, who allegedly was transgender and went by Aiden, killed six people after breaking into the Christian elementary school last March. Three of the individuals were students at the school, which officials say Hale previously attended.

"He was suicidal before the shooting. Just like me," Ye allegedly wrote. "He, too, wanted to kill little kids. A rush of adrenaline fills my body. He's so relatable."

A group of Covenant parents urged against the release of Hale's "manifesto" last year, raising concerns doing so could encourage copycat attacks and traumatize survivors. An attorney representing the parents also argued releasing the writings would allow Hale, who died after being shot by police inside the Covenant School, to "haunt [students] from beyond the grave." Portions of the "manifesto" were later leaked on social media, prompting an investigation.

Montgomery County officials have raised concerns over Ye's mental health, noting the 18-year-old was previously placed in treatment. A judge denied bond for Ye Friday, a decision Montgomery County State's Attorney John McCarthy feels was fueled in part by safety fears.

I think it was the escalating intensity and planning that was cited by the judge as one of the primary reasons to believe that this young man had a serious history of mental issues for a long time, but it seemed to be escalating," McCarthy said after the ruling.

Montgomery County Executive Marc Elrich has affirmed Ye "clearly had mental health issues," stating during a Friday press conference "it would be worth our while to figure out when could we have known and when we should have possibly intervened."

This woman Ella Gorgla has been getting attention for her videos claiming that she is being stalked, harassed, and gassed in hotel rooms, and for some odd reason cops treat her like a crazy person

She was actually an executive at Estée Lauder until being fired for whistleblowing about some racism shit, apparently the company's people are trying to kill her now.

This all happened in like 2021 and she posted it on instagram then, but now she's reuploading everything to TikTok and some responses are brain rotting lol

@ RedCoogiSweater: Ecolab is mostly just bug extermination most likely one of the units on the floor have bed bugs

@ Ella Gorgla: Lol. I suggest you visit the EcoLab website. They are not mostly ‘bed bug exterminators'. 🙄

No they literally are

@ Matt Wap: I work at a hotel as maintenance and we have Ecolab spray the rooms daily for roaches and other bugs.

@ Ella Gorgla: What hotel sprays DAILY 🧐

Dirty and shitty ones lmao

The comments on that more popular video are pretty reasonable, but other vids cause fellow schizos to come out of the woodwork

@ ForeverPretty: Ella, me and quite a few people actually believe you are Gang stalked. Now you need to do something tactical and substantial about it. Get a PI.

@ Johnny C: They can turn the PI's against you

@ ForeverPretty: I'm still dumbfounded that this a real thing. It's dystopian. I can't wait to completely destroy them. I aim to dedicate the rest of my lifetime to their demise. It's my true calling.

@ KNN: How many states are we up to now? New Mexico, Charlotte, Nc, DC, and Texas? Did I miss any?☹️Be safe!🙏🏽 You need to stop, allow your mind to settle on your new reality and create a new plan.

@ Ronnisha Franklin: It's an organized crime group going around trying to kill us!

All in all, these commenters suck. Enabling paranoia is kinda shitty

It's funny that the psych response to BPD's in our hospital who threaten to kill themselves is "do it you won't" and they are right every time

People made fun of Burat but he was right on so many things

It doesn't matter the reason. It was Freddie Gray/BLM back in 2016 and George Floyd in 2020. Now it's Pro-Palestine. The same type of agitators (far left weirdos) have started riot season once again.

Weird how it always happens during an election year.

R*ddit and 4chuds imploding with righteous anger, this is the LAST STRAW!!!! Surely the most addicted among them will not simply buy the new package

https://boards.4chan.org/vg/thread/474735120 (current 4cringe thread as of posting, don't expect it to last long, it's flying by fast and every post is primo seethe)

Since the advent of modern financial markets, bonds have always had the reputation of being conservative. The saying has been “Bonds would never make you rich.”

However, they would provide you with a moderate, steady, and dependable income.

This reputation was challenged in the 1970s and 1980s by treasuries yielding more than 10% in the wake of high inflation and the explosive growth in the high-yield market. In the decades that followed, yields drifted down in parallel with inflation, but investor excitement was maintained by a steady stream of capital gains (with the proliferation of ABS and MBS) as well as income.

However, once monetary easing hit its peak in the days following the Great Financial Crisis, high-quality bond yields fell to levels that promised very little income and at best modest capital gains, and it took a long time for yields to eventually recover to their historical averages. However, in the aftermath of the pandemic, massive government borrowing, inflation, and Fed tightening have all contributed to rising bond yields. But since over the past year, despite a winding down of pandemic effects, very steady economic growth, declining inflation, and a pulse in Fed tightening, bond volatility has persisted, with yields seeing sharp swings in both directions.

Indeed, since the Fed last raised rates on July 26th of last year, the 10-year Treasury yield has ranged from a low of 3.79% to a high of 4.98%. Statistically, this represents well above average volatility, and it raises some important questions for portfolio optimization (how to practically hedge). So it raises the question why bond volatility has risen, where it might go from here, and how investors should adapt to a world of more volatile bonds.

First, take a look at some key economic data and events for the week ahead. The most important economic numbers will be contained in Thursday's GDP report (keep an eye out for that). Business fixed investment, inventories and trade are all likely to detract from growth. However, the broad story appears to be one very modest deceleration from the 3.1% GDP growth seen over the course of last year to a 2.2-2.4%, while still running a little above the Federal Reserve's 1.8% longer-run estimate of the potential growth of the US economy.

Overall, it is expected these numbers to point to continued moderate economic expansion. Turning to the earnings season, with 14% of S&P 500 market cap reporting so far, the profit picture appears mixed, showing 70% of firms beating analysts' expectations in EPS, but only 46% beating on revenues. However, first quarter of corporate performance should be much clearer by the end of this week, since 158 of the S&P 500 companies are set to report over the next five days. Meta, ThermoFischer, IBM, AT&T and Boeing are set to release theirs today. Microsoft, Google, T-Mobile, Merck, Intel and Comcast set for tomorrow and Exxon, Chevron and Abbvie due on Friday. (Find your portfolio holdings date here https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/earnings , can't list them all 😴😴😴)

Investors will also be very interested in the translation of earlier CPI data for March into the Fed's preferred consumption deflation measures due out on Friday. Markets in general are pricing in that both the headline and core consumption deflation measures rose by 0.3% month to month in March, with year-over-year gains rising by 0.1% to 2.6% at the headline level and falling by 0.1% to 2.7% at the core level, that core inflation pressures are still easing, but at a glacially slow pace.

Just as financial commentators routinely say that we live in uncertain times, Michael Burry routinely says another recession is coming and Disney often claims the next Marvel movie is the best one yet, markets often claim that market volatility is unusually high. However, when it comes to the US bond market today, this is actually true. Looking at the Bloomberg aggregate bond index from January 2002 to June 2022, the average monthly return was 0.3%, with the standard deviation measured over a 24-month lag of 0.9%. That is to say, roughly two-thirds of the time, the monthly return was within a range of 0.6% to plus 1.2%. However, from July 2022 to March 2024, the standard deviation of monthly returns has actually fricking been 2.0%. A crazy amount for a piece of paper which basically does nothing but guarantee a coupon and a maturity payout.

In examining the causes of this volatility, it's easiest to start with what isn't causing it.

First, it's not due to increased volatility in economic growth. Over the past two years, the macroeconomic outlook has, if anything, become steadier. The unemployment rate has now been in a narrow band between 3.4% and 4.0% (literally all of rdrama.net) for 28 straight months, while real GDP growth appears to have settled into a steady, if somewhat strong, path.

Nor is it due to increased volatility in financial markets in general. This can be seen by the fact that equity market volatility has not risen nearly as much. Between January 2002 and June 2022, the standard deviation of bond market returns measured over a 24-month lag was just 27% of that of the equity market, as measured by the S&P 500 total return index. From July 2022 to March 2024, that ratio has been 37%.

Finally, and most interestingly, it's not due to greater volatility in inflation expectations.”

Measured on a monthly frequency, this expectation has stayed in a narrow band between 2.18% and 2.41% since September 2022. In fact, the standard deviation of inflation expectations measured in this manner has been almost 20% lower since July 2022 than in the prior 17.5 years. Think about it, not since the Invasion of Iraq and the global oil supply shitshow, has inflation expectations been so low.

When you look at more recently at data, CPI's are not doing much anymore. They have kind of bottomed. You being r-slurred, can argue that goods disinflation, which had been very powerful was the main driver of this disinflation trend. Well, no. That is over. Goods disinflation is arguably behind us now. And in some segments, you are seeing goods prices starting to rise again. The monthly core CPI was boosted by rents. Motor vehicle insurance was another driver, surging 2.6%. That was the largest rise since July 2020 and followed a 0.9% gain in February. There were also increases in the prices of apparel and personal care. But prices for used cars and trucks, recreation and new vehicles fell. Make of that data what you will. If you can match that to your portfolio company's earnings and cash out on expiring options, congratulations, you have just made your money like the big boy bucks in The Street.

But obviously, energy is still a question mark. And with what's going on in the Middle East and the most recent moves in rice, cocoa, oil, one can wonder to what extent there might be some pickup in energy inflation and consequently commodity inflation. And finally, and most importantly, obviously, services inflation is very resilient.

This is especially problematic in the US. US isn't China where you can just manufacture bullshit. Everyone knows that services inflation is very sensitive to the job market, to the resilience of the economy, to wages. And on this front, obviously, the job market across both sides of the Atlantic is very strong.

So, you know that the economists at the BLS and Fed think we have reached kind of a plateau.

But then, what is causing higher volatility in bonds, you ask incredulously?

First, Occam's Gillette. That this may be due in part to the huge volume of government debt that needs to be financed today. 20 years ago, treasury debt in the hands of the public was $4.2 trillion or 36% of GDP. Ten years ago, it was $12.6 trillion or 74% of GDP. By the end of last month, it was $27.5 trillion or 99% of GDP. It's quite possible that this extraordinary level of debt is straining global capital markets in a way that just wasn't the case 10 or 20 years ago, leading to more volatility.

This effect may be further amplified by quantitative tightening, which is having the effect of transferring treasury ownership from price insensitive buyers such as the Federal Reserve to much more price sensitive private sector actors. Moreover, this effect could be further increased by the general decline in dealer balance sheets in response to regulation, even as the overall size of the global bond market has increased. Second, higher short-term rates may be contributing to higher bond volatility.

With a normal upward-sloping yield curve, it's easy to assign investors to one of two well-defined camps. Those willing to accept some risk and return for better yields and potential capital gains would invest in long-term bonds, while those willing to sacrifice return for safety would stay at the short end of the curve. However, with overnight rates well above 5% and long rates significantly lower, many long-term investors may be tempted to tactically switch in and out of the short end of the market, adding volatility to bonds. Basically instead of hedging equities with bonds and credit with rates, they are speculating with your pension funds and having fun. (Let them have fun, bigot 🤬🤬!!).

Finally, and most hilariously, today's volatile bond market may reflect hypersensitivity of the Fed. Prior to the most recent inflation surge, Fed officials appeared to be relatively unfazed by small overshoots and undershoots on inflation. However, today we appear to be in an era of zero inflation tolerance on the part of the Fed. Consequently, a very slight overshoot in the March CPI numbers induced an immediate and violent reaction to the bond market, as futures markets almost overnight went from pricing in three full rate cuts in 2024 to barely pricing in two. Even if the inflation environment is relatively steady, any sharp change in expected Fed policy could add to bond market volatility.

Think about it for a second. We have reached metamarkets now. The market's expectations of inflation are tempered but since the Fed's inflation expectations haven't, so the markets are literally pricing in a quasi inflation derivative, ie the expectation of the fed's expectation of the inflation. This is your portfolio manager, Chris Nolan, and he's here to give you a lesson on markets called Inception. 😴😴😴

Then that brings us to the next question, that if, let's say, the Fed waits, is there a risk that given how strong the US economy has been, that there is a chance that inflation might actually slowly creep up instead of going down as it has done, let's say, last year? This is really the key risk here. And when you look back to, for instance, the 1970s, this is really what happened. (Already covered in previous effortpost).

But maybe the truth is, most likely, we have a very different situation. Most likely, the cyclical part of inflation is probably gone now. It has all but disappeared. And in many ways, the western countries are now left with the structural part of this inflation. Structural part, which is clearly the consequence of very long term factors on the economy, demographics, deglobalization, international wars etc. I am not a Political Economist, so I'll just say vote for Biden. Or for Trump. Or just have fun.❤️❤️❤️

Clearly, there's no evidence that Washington is going to reign in fiscal deficits or the regulators will act aggressively to deepen liquidity in treasury markets. While many still expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates later this year (pipe dreams), yield curve inversion could persist for a further year or more.

Nor is there any sign that an inflation-scarred Federal Reserve is going to moderate their reaction to inflation news going forward.

In this supermeta scenario, bond market volatility is here to stay at least for a while, and as a pesky investor you may want to consider if your bond allocations are appropriate for the overall balance of their portfolios. In other words, fricking sell your current bonds and load up on the next offerings because I don't see rate cuts soon.

Sauce:

https://www.bea.gov

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_bill_rates&field_tdr_date_value=2024

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20240417.pdf

And finally,

Your mum's shrieks when I was doing her

!r-slurs !math

@Proud_Mossad_Asset please effortpost sir before it's too old

Not only did Columbia make the horrific decision to mobilize NYPD on their own students, but the units called in have some of the most violent reputations on the force.

NYPD had promised the city they wouldn’t deploy SRG to protests.

So why are these counterterror units here? https://t.co/nfDVfueNSz

— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) April 24, 2024

A study on ADHD by University of Central Florida pic.twitter.com/jPGFlYul9k

— Historic Vids (@historyinmemes) April 25, 2024

The govt
“if u salary and work over 40 hours a week, u will be eligible for overtime”

“If the airline cancel ya flight, lose luggage or delay flights you will be given an automatic refund”

“Non-competes are now void”

35 yr olds on Twitter: “They banning TikTok?!”

— PhillyTheBoss.com (@PhillyTheBoss) April 24, 2024