DEAD RUSSIANS

SPLODY PAGERS

CAPTURED CITADELS

INVADING TURKS

WHAT THE FRICK IS GOING ON

Around 2014, shortly before I went to prison, the civil war in Syria was very fun to follow - the Ukraine or Israel of its day but less normie. It was in the sweet spot between these wars - very well reported, slow, and with a couple of cohesive factions - and jiggaboo hijinks in Africa where there are dozens of factions, zero cohesiveness, minimal information, and rapid butt movements and upsets because Russians came or a white man got mad.

Then I got out and shit was boring again. ISIS was gone, the rebels were cucked, and Assad had mostly won. How'd that happen?

2011-2012: Humble beginnings

Bashar Assad, the Alawite leader of Syria, had brutally oppressed his people for many years. In Arab fashion, it took American glowies on X (at the time known as "twitter") to galvanize them into rebelling, which they did, mostly ineffectually, over 2011-2012.

Though their achievements were minimal, with every massacre and atrocity, Assad's grip over the population and business establishment weakened. This emboldened individuals and factions, and everyone (perceiving weakness) shifted from keeping their head down to aiming for a piece of the Syrian pie.

2013: Shit gets real

Red is Assad, supported by the Alawites (inhabiting the coast, mostly), secularish and nationalist Syrians, certain classes of society like Sunni businessmen who supported him pragmatically, various Sunnis in his patronage network, and regular people either coerced or cajoled into it.

He was backed by Iran in exchange for further influence, an open lane to supply its Shiite proxies, like Hezbollah (via Iraq), and as a geopolitical ally and counterweight to the western gulf states. Also, to a lesser extent, by Russia (who operate a port in Syria), China and other contrarians.

Green is almost everyone else: dozens of armed groups with grandiose names and wide-ranging political views, from moderate Islamists to hardcore Islamists. You think I'm kidding. No joke, every single Sunni Arab anti-Assad group at the time had some flavor of Islamic flavoring. The "moderate" guys wore short beards, listened to music and took American funds while beheading Alawites whereas the hardcore guys beheaded music listeners and moderates too

The rebels held the suburbs - but not centers - of Damascus (capital) and Aleppo (second biggest city), the rural north (Sunni and neglected under Assad) and various positions in between. They were supported by wealthy gulf donors, Turkey, who gave them a free hand to cross the border and engage in commerce, and western powers like America and Europe. Like any non-state group they engaged in their fair share of smuggling, petty crime, taxation and tolls.

Yellow are the Kurds, who varied politically and religiously but always put their Kurdishness first. Initially, they were anti-Assad due to years of oppression, etc. but seeing how the Islamists treated them turned them more pragmatic. Poor guys, nobody except Israel likes them :(

There were also some Druze in the south, under the green faction for convenience.

2014: Rise-is of ISIS

Some ex-al Qaeda members in Iraq, battle-hardened and bored, saw an opportunity in the power vacuum to free Sunnis from Assad, which in practice became freeing them from their more lenient Sunni overlords (rebel militias proving an easier target than a theoretically professional army). Within a few months, they bulldozed most of the Syrian rebel factions in the east, turning their sights onto and humiliating Iraq as well.

At their height that winter ISIS was wrecking Arab armies everywhere and about to demolish Kobane / Ayn al Arab (one of the three Kurdish cantons). They did so much nasty shit there's no point in mentioning or cataloging it. IIKYK, if not, have a listicle I haven't read from google. Many locals felt some kinda way about their behavior but couldn't do much without getting beheaded. However, besides a huge number of foreign volunteers from shitholes like Chechnya and Tunisia, they also had local support from true believers, Shia-haters and those who appreciated unified governance over the mess of squabbling factions which had preceded it.

The Western reaction was wholly negative, so much so that even stodgy bureaucrats, Assad opponents, and kumbaya-singing libcucks from cowardly first world nations were galvanized into action. In September, 26 countries met in Paris and agreed to started bombing ISIS heavily; the US also bullied Turkey into letting the Kurds take their shit back.

2015: Meh

Not much changed this year. Besides Kurdish successes, the rebels took Idlib and consolidated in the south with the Druze. Most of the rebel-Assad line of battle was very low intensity, like Ukraine today. Neither side had the manpower, weaponry or supplies to engage in a more serious manner. In Iraq, the jihadis suffered multiple serious defeats by Shiite paramilitaries and the army.

I'm mostly not covering other name and branding changes in this article but (since it might come up later) in exchange for American support the Kurds accepted some token Arab groups and rebranded as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in October.

2016: Two more weeks

There was a ceasefire most of the first half of the year, everyone focussing on beating ISIS. You'll notice a large green swath in the south: a Jordanian-trained, Western-aligned, U.S.-led opposition group. When the greenbacks started coming in, they spun off from the Allahu Akbar brigade, traded bobbing their heads 5 times a day for a pair of raybans and never looked back. No bullshit, check the article, their predecessor organization was literally called that. 'Moderates'

They remain there to this day.

The latter part of the year offensives ramped up against the jihadis.

2017: Bye-SIS

Mainly Assad and the Kurds benefitted from pushing ISIS' shit in, with the exception of that small green slice up north: Erdogan's belated decision to establish a direct Turkish proxy instead of broadly supporting the opposition. That said, progress was slow as mutual enemies proceeded cautiously. That changed in July, when America and Russia agreed to a ceasefire to focus on the jihadis. Crucially, America agreed to stop funding and supplying most rebel groups. By then, ISIS had lost the north side of the Euphrates and many key positions, but still retained their capital, Raqqa, and significant territory within Syria and Iraq.

By the end of the year that was gone too. The terrorists were defeated, and all they'd accompished in the long run was a transfer of Sunni Arab land to Alawites and Kurds.

2018: Tits-urkey and Butt-ad

Turkey was pissed off at the success the Kurds were having and the fact PKK (Kurdish rebels from Turkey) fighters were a large part of the Kurdish army. Also, 3 to 4 million Syrian refugees had fled to Turkey, where they were causing societal issues !chuds and !nooticers might recognize. Consequently, they invaded Ifrin (the leftmost canton), kicked out the Kurds and resettled many refugees there.

Meanwhile Assad took the opportunity to wipe out any rebel pockets left south of Idlib/Aleppo. By and large, he seemed the biggest winner of a multi-year debacle which had left hundreds of thousands dead, an economy destroyed, and many millions fled in all directions, but Assad still in office and in control of the majority of the country and its population, and in negotiations with the Kurds, who'd earned some crucial respect and were angling for autonomy (obviously, independence was a non-starter, given the small size of Syrian Kurdistan, hostile neighbords, lack of port and the presence of Arab factions within the SDF).

2019: Sunni shenanigans

You'll notice a splotch of c*m on the green; over the course of the year, HTS (a Salafi Islamist group that had, unlike ISIS, renounced global jihad) mostly subdued other rebels in the Idlib area. I haven't mentioned inter-rebel fighting in the interests of brevity and sanity but you should know Wikipedia acerbically calls this the "fifth inter-rebel conflict." Keep that in mind when @sandkwinn and other 80-iq antisemites call for pan-Arabism, peace with Hamas, and the like. Arabs couldn't peacefully unify in a single PROVINCE while having 1. the exact same ideology, religion and langage and 2. least two, maybe four serious external enemies in common including a bloodthirsty tyrant and the world's worst terrorist organization.

Also, Turkey expanded their foothold in the east to a 30-km "buffer zone." The Kurds reacted by letting Assad's troops in to reestablish their presence alongside SDF forces throughout much of northern Syria. Notably, throughout the whole war, Turkey refused to consider a full invasion of Syria or direct, serious confrontation with Assad (for boring reasons), so this was basically ensuring an end to Turkish incursions in exchange for letting Assad back in the hen house.

In October, Trump's Navy SEALs capped Baghdadi in Idlib. The world rejoiced.

2020:

Assad, with serious Russian support, pushed up on Idlib, and the Kurds let him operate in even more of their territory. Dozens of Turks got merked by the Russians (probably on accident), causing a diplomatic rift and retaliatory bombing of Syrian gov't positions.

2021-2024: Nothing ever happens

The frontlines stabilized and fossilized, most direct conflict ending.

Sanctions of Assad's economy caused him to increasingly rely on the production and distribution of Captagon (meth / adderall type stim) to the gulf for foreign currency. Deciding their shit wasn't fricked enough, G-d sent them some earthquakes.

The Kurds mostly acknowledged Assad's suzerainty in case of a war with Turkey while retaining their militias and local administration. Occasional skirmishes against the Syrian Army and between Kurds and Arabs within the SDF continued.

HTS "unified" Idlib - in the bare minimum sense that the 11 other factions there acknowledged their superior position while remaining independent - and started professionalizing their army, integrating drones and shit.

The American proxies sit in the desert guarding a CIA listening post and the only direct road from Baghdad to Damascus.

Everyone got bored and stopped checking r/syriancivilwar.

UNTIL THIS WEEK

Wednesday, November 27th

Neighbors in the loop saw on X that HTS had launched a small offensive in the villages west of Aleppo, catching a mostly-demobilized Syrian army by surprise and capturing a few bases, some dozens of soldiers, vehicles and equipment commensurate with a raid of that size.

Ah, the famous West Aleppo HTS T-90 is returning to the area (mildly different owners to last time) pic.twitter.com/sso4Bhw5Bh

— Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ (@CalibreObscura) November 27, 2024

This footage of regime soldiers running away from their positions was taken at 36.269153, 36.958279, just to the east of the town of Qubtan al-Jabal.

This confirms initial reports Syrian rebels have captured this town in theb western #Aleppo countryside.#Syria https://t.co/yf083BTbKW pic.twitter.com/HTjqGQmCR5

— Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) November 27, 2024

قوات الأسد يسقطون أسرى بالعشرات وأحدهم يوجه رسالة إلى الباقين في جيش الأسد#ردع_العدوان #إدارة_العمليات_العسكرية pic.twitter.com/SAV6WfYaTB

— قتيبة ياسين (@k7ybnd99) November 27, 2024

Most tweets are already deleted but there were some fun vids of them beating captives, a dead Russian or two, spoils of war etc. Nobody thought anything of it. We're all used to these shitty little propaganda raids from two-bit outfits in BIPOC parts of the world like Myanmar and Ukraine. You'd have to be mainling copium to expect anything more given the shit performance of the rebels the past decade and a half... right?

Thursday, November 28th

I was busy mowing the lawn, trimming trees and hedges, weeding, cleaning out the AC drain and, like all Americans, having Thanksgiving dinner. Turkey, not Syria, was on my mind.

Turkey was on the Syrian National Army's mind too, which is to say they were grateful Turkey did not take advantage of the fact HTS was overrunning their entire shit west of Aleppo, maybe the only bright side of the debacle so far. It seems the consolidation of the past few years paid off - HTS used better equipment, were better trained, and had drones and operators never before seen in sandshit outside Israel. The advance showed no signs of stopping.

Suheil al-Hasan was spotted near the front - the pro-Russian commander of the "elite" Tiger Forces and somewhat of a civil war celebrity.

HTS managed to swiftly advance into Khan al Asal - after fierce clashes, HTS manages to seize and secure the city/suburb

They are now at the gates of Aleppo and are carrying out artillery strikes on Aleppo https://t.co/BOblD6Uh5D pic.twitter.com/sFJAAFkYfA

— ScharoMaroof (@ScharoMaroof) November 28, 2024

They reached within 7km of Aleppo's center, killing and plundering on the way. Many Syrian army guys got caught with their pants down - an Arab specialty, to whom discipline outside of active combat is a foreign concept.

https://old.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/1h25kga/dead_kia_as_regime_truck_ambushed_somewhere_in/

It looks like they knocked off an Iranian general...

NEW: Syrian rebels managed to kill IRGC’s Brigadier General Kiyomarth Porhashmi in Aleppo during the latest offensive, Iran’s SNN agency reports

He is described as the the commander of the Iranian advisors in Syria pic.twitter.com/7febUeRdm2

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) November 28, 2024

Meanwhile the Turks and Kurds got spooked...

🇷🇺🇸🇾⚡- Russian airstrikes are getting closer and closer to Turkish military presence. Footage shows Russian attacks against Arihah, just 2km from the Turkish base at Kafr Lata. pic.twitter.com/qTRjO1nYQL

— Zlatti71 (@Zlatti_71) November 28, 2024

🔴 Suriye Milli Ordusu, Halep Operasyonu’na katılmak üzere kuvvetlerini seferber ediyor. pic.twitter.com/NKT5hOHzIV

— Conflict (@ConflictTR) November 28, 2024

HTS and SNA media channels have started to post this - so we can do now too.

SDF is moving as well - SDF reinforcements are being deployed into Manbij. https://t.co/cYTHwBoBxQ pic.twitter.com/3nABfj9Iar

— ScharoMaroof (@ScharoMaroof) November 28, 2024

Friday, November 29th

HTS continued their excursion in Aleppo:

#BREAKING #Syria JUST IN: Video footage shows Syrian rebel forces in the Al-Furqan district of Aleppo. pic.twitter.com/b22deYQ6xM

— The National Independent (@NationalIndNews) November 29, 2024

Freeing their neighbors (and some hos) from the torture prisons:

https://old.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/1h2vzk2/tariq_bin_ziyad_prison_near_alrahman_mosque/

Capturing mad shit:

https://old.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/1h2aidp/videos_of_some_of_the_20_tanks_captured_by_rebels/

Opposition forces inside #Aleppo city have captured a whole stock of MANPADS.

Sources tell me more tanks, BMPs, anti-tank guided missiles & more have been seized in multiple weapons stores left behind by fleeing #Assad regime forces. pic.twitter.com/eCYD2wUJp8

— Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) November 29, 2024

And the police HQ:

https://old.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/1h2v880/hts_fighters_captured_the_aleppo_police/

Laughable showing by Assad honestly.

https://old.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/1h2yxyi/rebels_caught_a_soldier_in_aleppo_who_had_been/

Most importantly, THEY TOOK THE CITADEL! This dumb butt castle or something was held by the regime the entire fricking war. It's almost unbreachable (by middle eastern standards) if properly defended. Big propaganda coup for the rebs.

History.#Syria opposition fighters pose in front of #Aleppo's citadel tonight, as the city falls from #Assad's control. pic.twitter.com/rhsHHhHAbY

— Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) November 29, 2024

The future...?

Are Islamists (HTS), Turkey (SNA) and the Kurds (SDF) - the most unlikely allies - really going to campaign together against Assad? After 13 years during which zero cooperation took place between anyone, including at times when a slight intervention by, say, Turkey or Israel would have toppled the dictator? Or is this all hype and nothing ever happens? Will Assad counterattack with Russian or Iranian help and kick these neighbors back to Idlib?

No one knows

P.S. @DWHITE___________DYNAMITE please teach your mans how to spell drumstick