Now the primary focus seems to be around Donetsk and Luhansk, where parts of the territory would be under pro Russian rebels. (Al jazeera for rebels in those places info)
There have also been civilian deaths due to shelling in that territory.
Japan has initiated plans to improve defense ties with the US due to the Russian invasion.
Partial/limited SWIFT sanctions have been placed on Russia targeting specific banks.
Starlink satellite has been activated in Ukraine so complete loss of internet access shouldn't be a problem.
Ukrainian UN ambassador has requested red cross to collect Russian soldiers dead bodies so the families back home can know what happened. Further moral victory for Ukraine
Ukraine and Russia have signed agreement to not frick over the nuclear reactors.
That is all I am aware of.
Discuss.
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I’m a betting man. I think China will do Taiwan in the coming months. I also can’t bet I don’t think on this website.
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They won't. Too much hit back. Only way that happens if new formed unity of the west with this event immediately crumbers right after.
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I thought the same about the Russian incursion into the Ukraine. Then I really thought about it…. what better time is there? The West is likely as weak as it will be.
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The West is actually more united than it's been in years
However that could mean China will invade before the West unites even more
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Interesting point.
I would agree. But I would also disagree.
Internally, I think the west is more divided than ever.
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Pretty much, America broadcasts how divided it is for the rest of the world as entertainment. And America is really the only West that matters militarily.
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lol, look at the hope
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What am I hopeful for?
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That this is the lowest it's gonna get.
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I mean you can continue to think I’m dumb or you can say something
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Why would those two things be mutually exclusive? I DID say something, you didn't even understand what I was saying.
"Look at the inherent optimism this fool displays, saying that this is likely the lowest the West is going to sink. No, it will likely sink much lower." - that is all.
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“didn’t understand what I was saying”
You might want to change your argument friend.
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But even at their weakest they aren't weak enough to lose it seems.
Beyond that unlike Russia China is genuinely dependent on National prosperity to guarantee long term power and support internally.
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“National Prosperity”
I think this phrase means something entirely different to you and I than it does to Beijing.
I also believe the US government shares my beliefs by ignoring engineering requirements in building chip plants in Arizona.
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??
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China should wait until the 2024 election. Then the American wingcucks will be too busy fighting each other to fight china.
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Agreed.
Imagine you are a Chinese government official. You know the west is undergoing political and social unrest. No one in the west trusts each other they are worried about idpol and Ukraine. They think every independent voice is to be ignored.
Their economy is also in the dumpster fire.
Your economy is faltering but everyone in your nation believes you can deliver an improvement to their quality of life.
If I was Chinese, I would cut off the bandaid.
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There's no natural gas under Taiwan though
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Least r-slurred pinkoid.
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China is too big. It can't move that fast. Politically, bureaucratically and mobilizing physically. On top of that the Chinese government is quietly terrified of losing control of its own population. A political snowball rolling down the hill of Chinese demographics could swell into a veritable unstoppable force.
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You can make that same argument about NATO
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Perhaps, but NATO nations can still move and prepare independently. America can choose to remain focused on the Pacific while other nations focus on their own priorities. The Chinese have all their decisions made by one party. It is more cumbersome and unwieldy. The upside is that they have an easier time committing their full weight to war. NATO will always have to engage in internal negotiation of who is willing to commit what, when and where.
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I like you.
Unfortunately I think NATO will not do much without US blessing. Be it public or backdoor.
The Chinese have all their decisions made by one party yes, but does that mean that party will act as the west expects? If I were on the Chinese party council I would be hawkish. Who knows when such opportunities arise again.
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I agree that a Chinese hawk would view this as an opportunity but I think that the logistics of amassing and preparing a multi-wave air-sea-land invasion force involves more than a few months even if you assume political consensus. That's not mentioning the economic buffers they would have to put in place to not crumble domestically during that war effort. And all of that creates opportunity for dissident voices to gain traction and power. China is not ruled by popular consensus. There is no institutionalized pressure relieve valve for public discontent and there are a lot of critical views of government actively being suppressed.
The Chinese government is sitting on the back of a giant dragon hoping it doesn't question their authority. I think they fear it as much as we do.
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I don’t disagree with you. That is always where people get upset.
China needs raw manufacturing capability for everything. They also see Taiwan as a personal test of their power.
I don’t see a future where they don’t invade.
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I'm not an expert but I could see an unlikely but not implausible scenario where China recognizes Taiwan in return for them actively associating as their closest ally and ditching America. I'd put the odds of invasion in the next 15 years as 70-80%. After that the new generations who might feel very different will be rapidly gaining in influence and all bets are off.
That said, NATO deterrence is the only reason it's not 100%. It was almost all America before but thanks to Russia defense budgets in Europe will swell. These will be interesting times.
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I am willing to take the bet on the other side of this.
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I’ll bet you, I don’t know how to goomble here though. I guess all my drama coins they actually start escalating by eoy
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15 to 1 bets on actual currency they take action by eoy
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Would be hilarious if Ukraine wins then Taiwan does the same. Can’t imagine the CCP has moved very far from human wave tactics
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Sorry whiteboy, we're gonna need to see some ID before you start throwin that word around like it's nothing. Take a 10 minute time-out and come back when you've learned your lesson and/or paid reparations (by purchasing a BIPOC Approved™ rDrama NWord Pass© from the shop) This is an automated message; if you need help, you can message us here.
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