The story of Michael J Burry the neurodivergent stock exchange savant

https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/1510821172518301702

For those of you who didn't watch The Big Short or follow stonks at all, Michael J Burry is one of the first people to predict the 2008 sub prime mortgage crisis, and took massive advantage

TLDR: guy is an neurodivergent rich af chad similar to notch :marseyautism: but minus the incel shit and doesn't have to care what anyone thinks anymore and just tweets inane shit with grunge rock clips at the end for a week until it all gets deleted

So the guy started out as most neurodivergent do, never fitting in. He lost his right eye to cancer as a kid which made him even more avoidant. He didn't know he had autism but he focuses on his studies, got an MD at Vandy, and eventually started a residency at Standford. The insane hours and medical learning wasn't enough and didn't interest him however, so he used the hospital computer to post on a early stock trading advice forum that emphasizing calculated efficient investing. He made such a name for himself that prominent investment firms reached out to him to fund his own hedge fund Scion Capital (named after a fantasy novel of course). He continued to beat average rates of return year after year. :marseylongpost:

Eventually he got interested in the subprime market. This is how I understand it: Smaller banks were enticed by the giant ones to give out loans with shitty terms which started out from the US government push for Americans for Homes or whatever the frick they called it. They ranged from deceiving starting teaser rates to straight up pay nothing for a year until they frick you in the butt rates loans that could never possibly be paid back. These shitty loans were then bundled together with other loans and reevaluated by ratings agencies who were also incentivized to push them through, and given better score due to "diversity" and called them Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) or their derivatives Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO). People then were allowed to invest in these just like a bond. He meticulously went through these records and realized it was 90% garbage unpayable shit and that if a certain percentage of these loans failed, the whole bundle would as well. This was in like 2006 :marseysal:

So what do you do, the backbone of the US economy is based on nothing mortgages, no one was listening to you, and there was no direct way to make money off them failing. He then invoked the "Credit Default Swap". This was usually used between two giant banks giving eachother a loan and a third party would insure just in case anything happened which everyone knew wouldn't happen. Well Michael amended the documents himself to apply to MBSs and went to the giant banks to basically buy insurance on their shitty bundles. If the bundle failed, he would get paid out the full value of it. Most of them laughed him out of the room, but a few took him up on the offer thinking they just scored an easy couple hundred mil :marseysmug3: :marseyclueless:

A few years went by and nothing happened. His investors were furious and wanted to pull out and tried to sue him. He locked the accounts saying something will happen just give it 2 weeks. This went on and on until he was paying so much in interest he basically had to fire his entire staff. But others eventually caught on and it did indeed happen. He personally made 100 million dollars and 700 million for his fund, recording a profit margin of almost 500%. However he pissed off a lot of people and was basically blacklisted by big investment firms for calling them out and investors for playing hardball. He's doing well however as what every wall street bets losers wishes they could be. Has an asian wife too :truestorybro:

In reference to my link, he now just tweets rightoid nonsense with a grunge youtube link for a week then wipes his account every 6 months. Hope he's doing okay :marseycarp:

more contemporary note: He invested heavily in Gamestop around 2019 using his tried and trued "value" investing strategy that made him big in the first place. The company was undervalued as people obviously thought brick and mortar video game stores would go the way of blockbuster. He used his massive investment to push for being not r-slurred and get a change of management. The stock grew but hedge funds doubled down. Reddit caught wind and the rest is history. How much was actually a short squeeze, idk. More technical analysis from bronance: gme was heavily shorted at the beginning but shorts got btfo at around $50 and covered, most of the action afterwards are retail buying, institutions momentum chasing, and market makers delta hedging their short call options.

lets see if we can get him interested

https://x.com/bigbooba8/status/1511218567529865219

inb4 it gets deleted

https://i.rdrama.net/images/16841354999162881.webp

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The only problem is that you don't know if he's still right about current events or whether the fame went to his head after they made a movie about him.

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lmao that's exactly why I made this. He ITS HAPPENING posts constantly so I watch his twitter to see all the desperate stock bros try to get advice

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One correction - the diversity loan shit is highly over-rated and seems to be pushed by bad actors looking to score "but the wokies" points.

A buddy of mine at goldman has told me a bunch of war stories and said the crash was primarily r slurs over-reacting and the default rate was completely normal.

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Every crash starts with an overreaction to an asset perceived as "toxic". Also, the default rate was over 10%, and there was no way to know which mortgage backed securities we're "safe" because subprime mortgages were packed in with normal mortgages. If you weren't panicking about your potentially garbage assets, then you'd be a complete r-slur

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oh shit I never heard that side of it. So you're saying it was a human overreaction to the scale of the bad loans?

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human overreaction

Worse than that, there is evidence that the housing bubble wasn't actually a bubble, which means that when the Fed tried to pop the nonexistent bubble, it popped the entire economy instead. Whoops!

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I need to know what Zerohedge thinks of this before I decide if it's legit

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Jews did it

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Well do it again, it’s the only way half these r-slurs will ever afford a home.

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Basically yes, the risk assessment was way off.

I never even looked into this but he told me the default rate never went beyond normal levels.

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Interesting. I could definitely see the overreaction not being as bad as the cause. That's normal stock market panic

But from multiple sources I heard they weren't "normal". I guess it depends how you define normal

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I'll try to find the convo with him but from what I remember (this was years ago) the mortgage default rate was basically normal right up until the full crash.

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yea interesting I'd love to see that side of it. You don't hear it much for obvious emotion bait reasons

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He might have been talking about federally backed loans.

https://www.americanprogress.org/article/2008-housing-crisis/

This sounds similar to what he was saying (not identical) and I don't really wanna misquote him.

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That's the current academic opinion too. There just weren't enough subprime loans to topple the whole thing.

What appears to have happened was everyone got high on a price rally. Then people took r-slurred but prime rate loans. Eventually when some people decided they didn't want in, people who over levered couldn't sell, prices stopped going up, and middle class households that couldnt afford mortgage payments either got out at massive losses or defaulted.

The paper below is probably the best explainer I've seen. https://mfm.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Adelino_Schoar_Severino_Loan-Originations-and-Defaults-in-the-Mortgage-Crisis-The-Role-of-the-Middle-Class-1.pdf

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yea so everyone assumed the housing market would go up so they made these shitty loan deals thinking worst case they'd get their money back, and when the average r-slur eventually wized up the thing fell back on itself

correct?

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pretty much

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That’s called a bubble

Make bets that only pay off if the price continues to rise, and if it goes down even a little everyone wants to pull out. Thus overvalued

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absolutely false

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My dad is a bond trader and says the opposite. Blames the rating agencies mostly though. It doesn’t matter if there’s a bunch of shit on the market if people know it’s shit but if they think it’s AAA then you get fricked

I think your friend at Goldman is :marseycope: and/or :marseygigaretard:

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The problem with defaults is how highly they were correlated. This really fricks up the math they used to value CDS

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Tbh I read that as β€œdiversity of loans” as in some mortgages, some car loans, some commercial. Diverse loan packages track with market growth better.

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The main issue is that they had too much stuff that would have been quickly sold on their books at once, so banks that didn’t hold such assets were actually holding them in between times to at they would buy it and then sell it to someone else

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and seems to be pushed by bad actors looking to score "but the wokies" points.

I’m confused as to what people you say are over exaggerating the influence of diversity loans? :marseyconfused:

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That's one dilemma, the other is that with the number of people making bets on predictions some of them are going to be right some of the time, for no other reason than the law of large numbers, and then all it takes is a well-written movie to make them seem like Nostradamus.

In other words, he may have been right about 2008, but there is no way to tell the difference between skill and sufficient luck.

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That’s what I always wondered. movie aside his track record was pretty good so far. Until recently that is, he keeps it’s happening posting. Which I think will be right eventually

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