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As you can see on the list, only one Patriot system has been delivered and that one is from 2022, if I remember correctly. Biden announced another patriot system in June 2024, but it seems that that's exactly one of those AA systems Ukraine is still waiting for.

:marseyflagukraine: : America, can you give us that Patriot system we talked about? We could really use it right now.

:marseypatriot: : Nope, sorry Ukraine. I'm too busy sending another THAAD to Israel, you understand of course.

:marseyzelensky: : Oh...

Interesting bit of news from a month(ish) ago - the EU promised Ukraine 1 million shells in March '23 but as of September 30th, has only been able to deliver ~30% of it πŸ™ƒ

:marseyflaggermany: : Is anyone actually making that munition we promised to give to Ukraine?

:marseyflagfrance: : Lol, no.

just send in NATO troops already and settle this conflict. we know what russia does as time goes on, no need to give them more time to "debate" pulling out of ukraine

Lots of angry comments here :marseyraging:

Dude needs to keep down the whinging for a week or so unless he wants all the aid stopped.

And here :marseymad:

Who cares. They should fight strategically not with so much volume of consumption.

>slavs

>fighting strategically

:marseyclueless:

I have vague memories of a pumpkin faced man telling Europe they need to up their military spending and be laughed at for it back in 2016

You mean when he tried to claim the increased spending by European nations as his own work while it was exactly on the schedule Obama negotiated?


Nato's military doctrine is to gain aerial superiority and subsequently crush opponents through a combined arms means. It's fundamentally not designed for prolonged artillery satuation like we are seeing in ukraine, as such nato countries have not had much reason to manufacture artillery at scale prior to this war since it was not how nato planned to fight any war its directly involved in.

:marseypatriot: : Wtf are you people even doing at this point?

If the race really is as close as it is or Trump does win it, Bidens last act needs to be donating all the US's aircraft carriers, Tomahawks and F35s to Ukraine.

Democracy will fail either way but at least this way we go down fighting.

How is giving up all your shit and doing nothing else going down fighting? :marseysnoo:

So, the Federal Government is shelling out the money to defense contractors and the Pentagon but only 10% of the actual hardware is getting delivered?

So who is stealing the remaining 90%?

This is the kind of thing firing squads were invented for.

Didn't pack the rockets to Ukraine fast enough? Straight to firing squad you go :marseyshooting:

That's a bit of a reach. The items just haven't been delivered yet. I placed an order online 2 days ago, 0% of my order has been delivered today, it looks like it's en route and when UPS drops it off 100% of my order will be delivered.

That doesn't mean 100% of my order has currently been stolen.

We can certainly talk about lead times, delays, etc. which can be a problem, but what reason do we have to assume 90% has been stolen?

I want to see the Amazon tracking for billions in military hardware en-route to Ukraine.

Especially the photo of all of it sitting on Zelensky's doorstep.

Consider this, the shortest route is off the east coast of the US. Shipping was shut down for a while. Then also take into consideration that Customs can take a REALLY FREAKING LONG TIME for non-military shipments and requires detailed information. Now if it goes through an anti-Ukranian country then they can make the process take over a year for customs to clear it to pass. Now add the other countries en route. What does that mean? Shipping is a -b-word- when it comes to moving military equipment.

Why the shit would America's weapons go through an anti-Ukraine country? :marseyconfused:

youre assuming things

Yep. And I will continue to assume them while the evidence appears to support the assumption.

I will un-assume them when the missing 90% of aid winds up where it is supposed to be.


Yeah, imagine assuming defense contracts are bloated sham deals where many individuals line their pockets.

You could just check the GAO's high risk list and associated assessments and see the US gov confirm, with research, the vulnerabilities of DOD contracting to boated sham deals and individual enrichment, across seven broad DOD-related entries.

That's not what it's reporting, and you darn well know that... Why blatantly lie? The GAO's report is on high risk projects and programs, such as ambitious programs that are likely too demanding on technology, or a way too low ball deal.

The willingness of people to blatantly lie when their own sources call them a liar is baffling, yet here you are... Pathetic and shameful

I actually don't think OP is lying he's just really dumb lol

Just reddit things :marseyhammersnoo:

??? they are just slow at transferring the material to Ukraine, nobody is stealing it

The argument goes on if you're curious :marseynouautism:

The U.S. military has noted repeatedly that readiness stocks have been dangerously depleted and that manufacturing is not keeping pace with replacements necessary before releasing further stocks. Add in Israeli requirements and this is no surprise. The US is not going to jeopardize its own defense for Ukraine, no matter what

:marseypatriot: : Look Ukraine, not sending weapons to Israel is a threat to America, ok?

:marseyzelensky: : But America...

Defending Ukraine is defending the US.

Lmao :marseyemojirofl:

LMAO. Yall are wild with your takes. What makes you think that Russia could do anything to the US?

The political experts on /r/worldnews have tried to answer this but they used too many :marseylongpost: and I'm too lazy to copypaste everything :marseyantiwork:

Right - just like Vietnam was defending the US. What's NATO membership if you get all the benefits without all the costs and don't even have to join? The Pentagon gave up on the domino theory 4 decades ago, old timer

if they were in NATO there would be F22s and 35s flying over Ukraine carrying out fire missions and the Russian fleet would have been sunk 2 years earlier.

also, pentagon doesn't determine policy. they enact it.

"[The P]entagon doesn't determine policy" - that's a good one, I'll tell that one the next time I get together with my DOD colleagues -ex military, DOD

who controls the pentagon/DOD? who controls their funding?

do they have their own policies? sure. but they answer to the President and Congress. They can't just on their own decide (legally) "hey lets start giving weapons to Thailand and do strikes into Zimbabwe." only the CIA is allowed to do that (/j).

You really are clueless, aren't you? Start with Eisenhower and his warnings about the military industrial complex; move on to the Pentagon Papers… I love you armchair warriors who have never even been inside the Pentagon, where the birds are making the coffee

Although I will grant you that the president gets to choose which Pentagon-formulated policies to implement. That is why the generals didn't like Trump, btw, because he would always choose the craziest and most belligerent policy. After a while, they stopped giving him choices. As for Congress, they don't get squat, other than appropriating funds (which never, never are opposed because "not supporting the troops" is a political death sentence.)

Does the Pentagon control the White House? Or vice versa? :marseyhmm:

Seems the US don't think so. China is the pivot and war is coming with Taiwan being the hot spot.

:marseyzelensky: : But after you're done sending weapons to Israel can you give me some too?

:marseypatriot: : Nope, I plan to go bully China next.

The US must be intentionally sandbagging then. There is no reason the US military, of all organizations on earth, should have any problem moving vast amounts of war material around the globe.

And when the war first started, they was little delay on sending aid, too. Why would there be a bunch of bureaucratic red tape getting in the way now? Frick all that overhead, just put it on a darn ship and send it.

I mean, we failed to move out of Afghanistan effectively despite a year's warning. We pulled out the troops last second, leaving everyone else and all the equipment high and dry.

I think this shows that our military leadership is woefully incompetent right now, either because of red tape or because of extreme stupidity. I don't think they are sandbagging aid.

The US military cold be incompetent - but not because of what happened in Afghanistan. The US went there with the intent to create a new Afghanistan and much of the equipment was to maintain that. What was left in the country was mostly because of practicality and cost, or already given to the Afghan government - although still arguably wasteful.

This particular problem in Ukraine has less to do with military competence and more to do with sand-bagging, or red tape, from bureaucracy.

I guess you could say that could be interpreted as incompetence. I would consider someone mailing a bullet on friday when they should've sent it on monday but got lazy as incompetence. And someone wanting to mail a bullet on monday but can't until friday because contract changes, procurement, or a politician as red tape.

The issue isn't the equipment that would have cost more to ship home than to write off, it was the fact that a small presence could have safeguarded against a resurgent taliban, once it became apparent they were not honoring their part of the deal, and mainly the fact that we pulled out so fast that we left 10s of thousands of interpreters and "collaborators" behind to be murdered. Yes, Afghanistan failed when karzai was chosen and inadvertently overly favored by the us for too long, but the people that were left to fall prey to taliban retribution is the national shame that we carry. But honestly, only a small number of troops could have held off a taliban government being re established, biden and Trump just really wanted entirely out.

Don't feel the least bit of shame. A country that can't prop it self up after 2 decades is their own problem.

:marseypatriot: : You know what? I'm sick of this shit and I'm leaving. The Taliban can have all the equipment for all I care, unlike you they earned it I guess.

:marseyflagafghanistan: : Wait, America, please!

:marseytaliban: : Gib America's weapons!

They don't have any logistics problems supplying Israel though.

No :parrotunitedstatesofamerica: :parrotisrael:

At least there is no parts supply chain to keep those vehicles and such running well. Much of it was disabled before leaving

Now the equipment left by the ANA? Most was likely not disabled.

Imo the only thing it shows is that the pull out should have been properly negotiated and prepared for by the person who negotiated it. It also shows the US will still honor it's agreements.

Could it have been better? Probably. There were a lot of issues that started with the agreement made by the previous admin.

Who's to blame for the embarrassing Afghanistan pull out? Trump or Biden? :marseynoyouwingcuck:

Israel, they have used up all the US's missile interceptors, artillery shells, etc for their greater Israel campaign.

Like fighting a war with somebody else's weapons is a bad thing :marseysaluteisrael:

The West has proven itself to be both unwilling and unprepared to respond appropriately to the threat posed by Russia and Putin has been able to run rings around both the US and the EU. Will the larger NATO partners actually defend smaller states like the Baltic States with more than words if and when Russia decides that it's time to chance its arm.

I keep seeing this take, but I was actually impressed at how fast NATO reacted to this war despite owning Ukraine nothing. If anything it proved that if NATO is willing to go this far out for a non-NATO country then it's willing to rain heck for an actual member :marseyshrug:

If the Ukraine soldiers arent trained for all the new weapons. Its a waste to send them now. Just like the F16 fighters they are getting. It takes time to train personel to maintain and fly those things.

Which equipment ? It's been 2 years, they have been trained on most pledged equipment.

:marseypatriot: : We trained you to fight in modern planes, what more do you want?

:marseyzelensky: : The actual planes too?

:marseyflageu: : Oh yea sure, just give us another year or so! We promise!

(we don't have a NATO marsey unfortunately :marseysad: )

Funny that you mentioned it. USA also restricted the number of Ukrainian pilots it trained. https://kyivindependent.com/delays-to-f-16-training-ukrainian-mp-says/

That's a very old article and misleading. The US didn't 'restrict' Ukrainians from training. The US didn't have slots in the foreign pilot training programs because they are booked far in advance by other nations. Also Ukraine did not have enough English fluent pilots advanced enough to go straight into F-16 training. The training is only done in English.

Therefore, the US opened another F-16 training program in Romania to accommodate more pilots and they began training Ukrainian pilots from scratch. Training from scratch adds an extra year onto the training. But there weren't any more Ukrainian candidates that could start at the B-Course level, which is the course where you start actually flying the F-16.

:marseypatriot: : Right, look what we're gonna do. You'll train alongside one of your neighbours.

:marseyflagromania: : Sure! Do we get more american soldiers in our country is we do this?

:marseypatriot: : You'll have to pay for all of this...

:marseyflagromania: : No problem! I'll mooch the money back from the EU at some point.

:marseyzelensky: : But what about the actual planes?

Because the pipeline is already tight as most us allies train their fighter pilots in the us. I mean I take your point, but when you state it like that it sounds like some sabotage campaign.

:marseyflagromania: : We can train them too now! EU gib money!

:marseyflageu: : Really?

:marseyflagromania: : It's for the safety of us all!

The pattern I noticed is the entire war effort is dependant on US and Europe doesn't care

US gives guns, Europe gives money. US aid is govt funding to buy stuff from US-based companies to then send to Ukraine. If the US govt pledges weapon packages in the form of pledge to buy from local aka US suppliers, but the guns do not end up in Ukraine, how is this Europe's problem?

https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-us-aid-going-ukraine

The clearly end up in Ukraine, that list of what's been delivered by the US is massive. Something your country can't say.

:marseysaluteusa:

Unpopular opinion - these delays exist for the same reason the Justice Department has done frick-all about domestic terrorism and Republican sedition for four years. Biden is a gutless do-nothing kitty that is soft on real crime that threatens our national security and that of our would-be allies. He is so old, feeble, senile, and out of touch he won't lift a finger to challenge those who are attacking our democracy and sandbagging/obstructing aid to Ukraine.

Our only hope is that Harris successfully stops the steal, fires Garland, rolls heads at the corrupt DOJ, FBI, and Pentagon and starts the real work of purging Federal power structures of traitors who have for too long aligned with Trump, Putin and other agents actively destroying our country.

Kamala will save America! :marseykamakama:

I wish my country just surrendered and gave green corridor for Russia to attack Europe. All we get is words of encouragement and pressure to lower our conscription age to send more of our men to die. I just read that North Korea handed over to Russia 6 million shells. FRICK THIS SHIT.

I live close to the frontline. I am so fking tired. My life was good. Better than most americans and europeans. Living standards were pretty high. I refuse to be a refugee, life in europe is a downgrade. I think we chose wrong allies. North Korea and Iran have no problems delivering what's needed.

You can always surrender :marseyshrug:

Ask Europe.

In-depth breakdown of the EU/US contribution :marseynoyou:

This shit is just getting pathetic. Has been pathetic.

Frick the GOP, frick the Putin sycophants, frick the authoritarian enablers stealing Ukrainian lives for votes.

Does he know that Biden is president? :marseyquestion:

Can supply the genocidal israelis but not Ukraine. This is deliberate and if Ukraine falls then NATO is done. Who is going to trust the Americans and I guarantee every NATO country, except maybe Canada, will drop out. America will be isolated and the world will be at war. I'm not keen in dying in atomic hellfire and I hope the Americans get their heads out of their asses and are honest to their word for once.

The US maintains stockpiles in Israel.


Lol what? Ukraine is not part of NATO, so Ukraine falling isn't going to affect it.

You can't help this non-NATO country! You need to help this other non-NATO country or NATO is finished! :soyreddit:

Meanwhile, another 100 billion to Israel!

:chadj!ew: : Problem?

England has given over 1.6 BILLION, and a lot of that money has been misplaced according to Ukraine

Hmm. Lies.

Google it also you've got a few weird things on your profile p-do

Look, copious amounts of alcohol is a human right, chud :marseyrussianmutt:

Wrong! They should have much more by now!

:marseyconfused:

Probably using those funds for some other shady shit

This article is about military equipment pledged but not delivered, not funds.

Like an eastern european country couldn't find a way to do shady shit with equipment. This is an insult at this point! :marseyannoyed:

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Republicans are betting big on trans issues. :marseywholesometrans:
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  • Qar : Doxing me

YOU VILL LISTEN TO THIS SONG WHILE READING THIS TEXT:

!spongebob

Hello :marseysadwave2:, I'm a 22 year old male :zoomertears: presenting with a smell of feces around me despite being clean. :marseysniff: :marseystinky: I've had this issue for 10 years.

People avoid sitting near me :marseyblops2cel: and often ask me if I've farted or had an accident. :marseyfart: :!marseybrap: It's humiliating and has had an immense impact on my quality of life. :chuditsover: I've self harmed a total of 8 times now :marseycut:, which were all a result of days when people noticed my smell and either said something horrible or blatantly held their nose/moved away. :marseyduriansniff: I'm upset as self harming isn't like my character at all. I was extroverted and confident. (:marseysurejan:)

I can smell feces on my breath too. (:gigachad2:) This is quite minor though, I can only smell it when flossing my back teeth. People don't comment on my breath. (:surejan:) The body odor is the issue.

I am not incontinent (:marseysurejan:) and there is never staining in underwear. (:marseysurejan:) My clothes never smell of feces after I've worn them. (:marseysurejan:) I wipe myself with wet wipes and shower after every bowel movement, putting a lot of effort into cleaning. (:marseysurejan:)

I have had chronic constipation as long as I or my family can remember. :marseysurprisedpikachu: My first fibre sachets were prescribed when I was 3 years old. :bruh: I currently suffer from obstructed defecation and the feeling of incomplete evacuation. :chuditsover: I was diagnosed with a grade IV internal rectal (mucosal) prolapse / AKA internal intussuseption, via proctogram. :marseygoatse:

I'm considering a rectopexy to excise the excess muscosal tissue. :marseymaid4: I'm worried about the risk of incontinence and no improvement of symptoms. :chudconcerned: I've had one biofeedback session and am finding the sphincter/ pelvic floor exercises prescribed easy. :marseyexercise:

It currently takes around 20 minutes of wiping to get clean. :marseywait: :marseytime: :bruh: Then I have a shower. :marseybath:

My colonoscopy came back normal. :mariogoatse: :marseyokay: Coeliac test came back negative. Trimethylaminuria (TMAU/fish odour syndrome) also came back negative :marseysrdine: :marseysniff:, though I am not confident in the validity of this TMAU result. :marseynooticeglow:

I have also tested for SIBO, Leaky Gut, H Pylori and parasites. All negative. :marseyscientist: A stool test showed I have low IgA immunity in the gut and bacterial dysbiosis. :marseyill:

Cutting out gluten reduced the fecal smell of my breath but not my general body odor. :muttobese:

I am a healthy weight and body fat. (:marseysurejan:) I exercise regularly and drink plenty of water. (:marseysurejan:) I don't smoke and drink alcohol rarely. :!marseyrofl: :marseystinky: :marseylaugh: :marseypipe: :marseyboomer:

White European Male 22 years old :brazilaryan: Healthy other than chronic constipation Only medication prescribed is stool softeners :marseymeds:

I've tried every vitamin and supplement I can think of. I can tell you which ones if you like. :!stoningpills: :crap: :stoningpills:

Do you think my smell is to do with my lower GI problems or metabolic? :marseygigathonk: ANY help at all would be appreciated. I just want to sit next to someone again in my life. :marseyelliotrodger3:

Thank you :marseythanks:

SUMMARY: Generally Healthy (but constipated) 22 y/o male has body odour that smells of poop despite being clean https://i.rdrama.net/images/17303953947061536.webp

I'm blown away by everyone's support. Everyone who has commented and voted has been truly amazing and been really generous! I'm still working through the replies whenever I get a spare moment! :chudheartwarming:

:!#speechbubble:

https://i.rdrama.net/images/173039539427317.webp !moidmoment !pantspoopers !shitheads !Incels !ifrickinglovescience !biology

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The Trump Bubble is Popping

Prediction markets made up of idiot rationalist types displayed an idiot rationalist belief that the country would make the suicidal mistake of putting a 78 year old man in power again.

Look at this guy on TheMotte.

How do you think the Puerto Rico joke will affect the election?

greyenlightenment investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ... dsfewr 3d ago

Judging by the massive surge in DJT stock this morning, or prediction markets, not at all.

So a bunch of Trump people have a party and they go home and they put their feelings into a market action and someone says "look, there's market action, that must mean we're winning."

It's a circular process, a bubble like this.

But people are starting to realize: the prediction markets take the existing available information, and then add feelings about the election from men who are well known to be inclined to emotional thinking.

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17304035710439668.webp

And $DJT continues to lose money as people get out. Peak $DJT was mid-October, since then it's just a slow, steady decline, which has continued today.

Donald J Trump is Dead in the Water.

The market knows it.


The polls say it's 50/50. The feelings markets say Trump will win. The real market is dumping the garbage stock. Between the feelings market and the real market, I trust the real market.

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Kamala Rally D.C - no cap on god

!khive @Mummyvann

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Least creepy fanfiction.net review
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:marseywomanmoment2: Pizzacake posts are now banned : bonehurtingjuice :!marseyjanny:

https://old.reddit.com/r/bonehurtingjuice/comments/1ggn4a6/pizzacake_posts_are_now_banned/

Subreddit dedicated to repurposing redditor comics has been threatened with legal action from annoying reddit comic artist, jannies put their foot down to avoid… litigation over satire/fair use?

:#marseysurejan:

I really tried to be civil with this mod but they made it impossible. I asked them to help curtail the assault and people following me to my profile and other sites from this subreddit (still happening today)

I had to resort to legal action to stop from people leaking my paid content and spamming my content everywhere, flooding search engines with sometimes hateful edits that have my signature on the bottom

For years, I've been a chill person and arguably more accepting to people editing my stuff than most folk. It was fun for a while, but when yall started stealing from me, sending threats and legit stalking, it went too far. Touch grass if you feel the need to harass others.

For those of you who just wanna have fun and be playful, sorry others ruined it. I tried to make it work, but I gotta think about my own mental health, too.

Edit: I literally asked this mod for help and he TOLD me to threaten legal action so here we are.

Honest question, what does having your comic edits on this sub have to do with people leaking your stuff? To my knowledge, that doesn't happen here, and hate speech isn't allowed here either. Sounds like your problems are elsewhere and you're taking it out on this sub.

:#marseyfoidretard:

This seems ridiculous but also people are really mean to her for, like, no reason. Even if you don't like her comics there are so many worse ones.

Threatening to take "legal action" against a meme subreddit seems to have created a reason.

Also the reason of downplaying men's issues.

Then when called out for it "I can't be sexist against men, I have a son!"

:#marseypearlclutch:

What an unfunny b-word

You don't have to be misogynistic about it, you chud.

:#marseychudgenocide:

As per the policy with any social media site/app, once you post something publicly online, any legal binding or regulation is up to those who run the company it's posted on. Unless something counts as libel, such as "blah blah here's the reasons u/ "whatever" has groomed minors", there is very little grounds for action. These are not serious accusations on this subreddit, no one actually thinks anyone is being serious, and no one claims they are. If someone doesn't want to risk being gossiped about, don't post your life on the Internet.

:#marseyhesright:

Can we make crudely drawn templates of the classics?

I'd like to avoid blatant copying at least for the short term, let's say 1 month. We can decide whether this is allowed then.

:#marseyjanny2:

IMO if she doesn't like it that much, it makes sense to ban it. Relentlessly poking fun at someone who is not enjoying it isn't good for any community to do. We're not talking stonetoss or anything, it's some woman living her best life.

:#marseymoidmoment:

She gets annoyed over the response to this.

https://old.reddit.com/user/Pizzacakecomic/comments/1ggo54q/posting_this_response_here_for_when_it_inevitably/

Unfortunately MOST subs on reddit now have been taken over by the hateful stalkers, bots, disinformation, content thieves, reposters, shitposters, CHUDs and generally the worst of the worst.

I can't think of a single sub I visit that hasn't been affected by it since the API purge.

:#marseysnoo:

EDIT: janny's official reaponse to her sneed

asked them to help curtail the assault and people following me to my profile and other sites from this subreddit (still happening today)

When I asked for clarification regarding "hate" you were receiving from the subreddit, you made assertions that BHJ has a toxic culture:

There's a very toxic mindset present. BHJ users seem to exclusively targetΒ Β content (without permission) for the sole purpose of attacking creators. I'm sure if other artists saw their work there and the constant insults and group attacks, they would make the same requests to disallow it.

I don't want my content somewhere where people congretate to attack me. Recently, my patreon page was temporarily removed because of people mass reporting it. It was eventually reinstated, but I need to avoid hate groups and unfortunately this subreddit has become one. I wouldn't be surprised if in the future, users found posting on BHJ were automatically banned fromΒ , as artists do not want to be harassed and have their work abused on the same site they frequent.

I spent the next 2 hours scouring related comments, and had found no links to your patreon or other sites besides to your comic posts. The "attacks" that were not removed were primarily limited to "unfunny", "uncreative", or "unattractive art style" within the last month since the previous correspondence regarding the leaked comic "Manicure" (which from what I remember had been posted elsewhere on Reddit before being copied to BHJ). To my knowledge there has not been additional leaked content since that one.

Regarding users following you to your profile/other sites, I encountered no URL links to your Patreon within the last 2 months on BHJ, nor to any of your other sites. Kemono links are now blocked by automod. Based on the above information my assessment was that after the changes in the last month the problematic users you are facing are not likely from this subreddit itself, and I told you as much.

You had not mentioned search engines with hateful edits in the correspondence, or I would have informed you that while many of these were posted to BHJ, even ones that were removed within 30 minutes would often still find themselves posted elsewhere on the Internet (Facebook etc). If you did not want your name associated with edits you could have also mentioned that at the time.

Lastly, you had asked me to not inform the users of the reason for removing posts containing your content. I had said I will either be informing them of the reason, or you could take legal action and I will still be informing them of the reason. You chose the latter.

:#marseyflamewar:

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Wish i still had a reddit account so i could argue with the shitlibs who unironically think Trump's detention centers were the worst, but also that Kamala promising to return to them is based. Or that Kamala will keep China in check despite the admin preparing to go to nuclear war with it, iran and russia as per their own talking points

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gjsman-1000 2 hours ago [flagged] [dead] | parent | context | flag | vouch | favorite | on: An Update on Apple M1/M2 GPU Drivers

Asahi Lina

You mean Marcan42's alter ego. I know, I know, but I'm still viewing it as offensive to women in tech when men adopt female alter egos for false appearances of diversity.

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!chuds in shambles

All the polling supports the buzziest statistical claim of the 2024 election: Black voters are moving toward Donald Trump. An October 2020Β Pew Research surveyΒ found that Black voters favored Joe Biden by a margin of 81 points, 89 percent to 8 percent. But four years later, Vice President Kamala Harris's margin of support among this group isΒ just 65 pointsΒ (79 percent for her vs. 14 percent for Trump). In an extremely tight election, a 16-point drop seems like a very big deal.

My expertise isn't in predicting election outcomes, so I won't attempt to do so using this data. I'm a decision scientist and a retired professional poker player. I study how we make decisions and how we can train ourselves to make better ones. The conversation around Black voters is an example of one theme I plan to explore in this year-long column for The Post: how our instincts about data can lead us to draw the wrong conclusions.

For all the talk about misinformation these days,Β misinterpretation of factually correct information is what keeps me up at night. The research backs up my concern.Β A May studyΒ by researchers at MIT and the University of Pennsylvania found that information about covid-19 vaccines that passed a fact check but was misleading was much more consequential than misinformation in driving a potentially bad, high-stakes decision. How much more consequential? TryΒ 46-fold.

When we look at the case of Trump and Black voters, the trend is not in dispute. The problem is that we've neglected to gather all the information we need to put the trend in context. We can't know what to make of the numbers --- whether they are big or small, or significant or not --- if we're looking at the data in isolation, as the majority of commentators have presented it.

As is often the case, we have yet to ask two necessary questions of the data: "Compared with what?" and "Out of how many?"

For the movement among Black voters to matter, it must mean a net loss for Harris and a net gain for Trump. When we compare Black voters only to themselves, and no other group, it creates the appearance that this is the case. When we change the comparison to all voting blocs, the picture changes. According to recent polling, Trump is doing worse with White voters, specifically those without college degrees, than he did in 2020 and 2016. I was relieved to seeΒ CNN's Harry Enten point this out last week.

In the last two elections, Trump's key demographic --- his base --- has been non-college-educated White voters. In 2016, he did better than Hillary Clinton with this group by 33 points. Then in 2020 he outperformed Biden by 31 points. But according to the latest polling averages, Trump's lead among this group has fallen by 4 points from 2020: He now holds a 27-point margin over Harris.

Of course, Trump's 16-point gain among Black votersΒ feelsΒ a lot bigger than Harris's 4-point gain among non-college-educated White voters. Four times bigger, in fact. That is probably why Trump's gain is getting a lot more of our attention.

But this framing cuts off the full picture. Elections are about total votes, so we need to figure out what percentage of the electorate these two groups represent.

According to Pew, Black voters make up about 14 percent of the electorate nationally. In battleground states Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Black voters representΒ smaller sharesΒ of the electorate: 14 percent, 11 percent and 6 percent, respectively. Nationally, non-college-educated Whites make up 40 percent of the electorate, but in those Great Lakes states, they make upΒ 51 percentΒ of the vote. So although Trump's gain with Black voters looks to be four times bigger than Harris's gain with noncollege White voters, Harris's "new voters" demographic outnumbers Trump's by significantly more than 4 to 1.

To give you an idea of how much the proportion matters, if you selected 100 voters at random in Michigan, Trump would be predicted to gain about two Black voters, while Harris could expect to gain about two noncollege White voters. That's a wash. In Wisconsin, Trump would be predicted to gain about one Black voter, while Harris would be predicted to gain about two non-college-educated White voters. That's 2 to 1 in Harris's favor.

This is why it's so important to ask "Out of how many?" and "Compared with what?" When we don't, we're basing our beliefs on a statistical illusion. Making more accurate predictions depends on drawing the right conclusions from that data --- and, just as important, not drawing the wrong conclusions.

In a presidential election, quality information about the state of the race is crucial becauseΒ it can shape our behavior. Research has shown thatΒ polling can influence how people vote, so misinterpreting it has consequences.

Trump's improvement with Black voters might ultimately matter more in the right places than Harris's improvement with White voters. But we can't assume so based on the headlines we're reading today, so we shouldn't make decisions based on them.

I'm writing this column because I've spent my career thinking about these issues. I've discovered that there are all sorts of things we can do to improve our decision-making. Becoming a better consumer of information is at the top of my to-do list. We can learn to ask the right questions about the information we encounter. We can learn to ask for more context. We can become better at avoiding these self-inflicted errors.

Whether at the ballot box or the poker table or the kitchen table, learning how to become better consumers of information is a project worth pursuing. It's a project I am excited to share with you over the course of the next year.

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23
they all feel good, but some feel better than others

!unblockablechads !khive

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17304067851799138.webp

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17
r/punk says you aren't welcome if you aren't mainstream :marseykickflip:

It's so fricking incredible how sanitized and castrated the shitlib multitrillion dollar corporate oligarchy has made everything that was once subversive. Punk, metal, witchcraft, anti-establishment pseudopolitick, body mods, weird hairstyles and colors. Every single thing under the sun has been coopted, declawed, simplified and bastardized beyond all recognition. You can't even be anti-corporate hegemony anymore without being cheered on by 10+ figure corporations selling you shit for it and being collectively branded a Bad Guy if you don't embrace it.

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18
Sheila is a Fiiiiire wooooooork

Love yall

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https://i.rdrama.net/images/17304091688319914.webp

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17304091696801212.webp

lol

https://i.rdrama.net/images/1730409169937914.webp

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10
IM ALREADY ALMOST OUT OF CANDY :angrycomfypepe:

ITS ONLY BEEN 30 MINUTES

:#angrycomfypepe:

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Actually, Marvel movies are peak CGI you pleb :marseyakshually:

And of course he starts grifting as soon as he gets a shred of attention :marseyeyeroll:

>have dinosaurs and lasers and steampunk alt histories and such

Wowzers! :soyjakwow:

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10
Watch the Avengers endorse K-Mommy and it will convince you to write in Hamas :marseycringe2:

ScarJo is so far over the wall she's basically one of the Central Americans K-Mommy imported to work slave labor cash jobs

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30
kween integrates into mayo susiety but makes it less corny (this is a bad thing)

first of all I love the Irish :marseyflagpalestinelove::marseyflagpalestinelove::marseyflagpalestinelove: :marseyflagirelandlove::marseyflagirelandlove::marseyflagirelandlove: and of course 0 Irish people are offended about some dancing black lady and it's all crying lards and bongs nooo how could she dance this is literally yt genocide :chudrage:

a mutt s*x offender living in Romania and a balding bong with ties to the taliban think it's wrong :tears:

https://i.rdrama.net/images/1730399291508654.webp

so many lards (including op)

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17303993287098362.webp https://i.rdrama.net/images/1730399329145916.webp https://i.rdrama.net/images/17303993294961076.webp

meanwhile actual Irish people :marseyglancing: lmao

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17303993298709478.webp

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17303993300669653.webp

:marseysh#esright:

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10
Do NOT face bardfinn alone when Astral projecting :marseybardfinn3:

Today while astral projecting I summoned Steve to try and weaken him so our hexing spells would work better.

He is so fricking powerful. I'm not at a power level to do this alone. I barely escaped with my life and I'm spiritually injured to a great amount, but I think I'll make it.

I can't imagine what he would do to a new, unsuspecting witch. I'm scared that I will have to face him again soon if I ever want to continue astral projecting. I'm currently burning healing incense and drawing spiritual energy from my crystals to try and heal as quickly as possible.

Please be safe everyone. Bardfinn is much stronger than I first imagined and we will have to do this together if we want to slay a god.

:bardfinn#soyface:

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68
twitter rightoids are just as r-slurred as redditors holy shit

so the string of tweets starts with

How hard would it be to add a "I don't care" option at the very least?

so obviously i reply

basically impossible because it's literally genocide and would directly cause the deaths of billions of trans and non binary people.

a painfully obvious joke tweet...right? WRONG, DINGUS. IT WAS A SERIOUS TWEET FROM A DEVOUT TQ+ MEMBER!

Lmao. No ones causing the deaths of trans people but themselves. Don't blame other people for people committing suicide.

Not acknowledging it as anything special should be what yall are striving for, not this attention seeking bullshit.

me

wrong. if you don't completely affirm and encourage trans and non binary people in video games there would be trillions of trans deaths over night and you would have blood on yer hands.

him

I don't have blood on my hands for not telling a schizophrenic person that the voices in their head are real, or that their anorexia is right and that they should be skinnier. Becuase we don't affirm the mentally ill.

also him

"I don't care, there are bigger issues" is the best case scenario for the LGBT community. It's the indifference that gay people have been striving for years, but the trans want to bring attention to their "Me me me" attitude. Then yall wonder why you're called narcissists.

also him

Yall already have a trans character in the Dragon Age series, but yall complain that it's not made to be a big deal. Krem in DAI is trans, literally no one cares because it's not made to be a big issue and it's not its own scene you're FORCED to go through without opposition.

me

you should be forced to go through it so your genocidal homicidal transphobic tendencies can be reeducated out of you. do better, sweaty.

him

You're just mad that someone's disagreeing with you dude.

People are sick and tired of being told what to think, especially when it's not based in reality.

me

there's a difference between "disagreeing" and "committing actual genocide".

him

I understand that this is your favorite book, but tweets by random people aren't killing people.

If you sincerely think that what random people on the internet are saying are killing people, you and those people need to 1) Touch Grass and 2) Talk to an actual therapist

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17303954284381359.webp

this isn't even all of it, but i'm about to leave and can't continue. someone else can pick it up if you want. it seems you can say any wild bullshit you want and he'll take it serious.

am i the one getting worked here? i half feel like i have to be. he can't be reading my tweets and thinking they are real. HE CAN'T.

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I ain't 'fraid of no ghost! :marseyghostlaugh:

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2
Sir, the space marines have turned gay.

Palestinian Lives Matter.

Palestine is a gay space marines issue.

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Reported by:
  • Lv90_Slime : I have a gun/ammo bowl in front of my house (only take ONE gun and ONE magazine!!)
13
Best House?

!boozers

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4
Koreans get redpilled on how greedy and soulless doctors are

TLDR: They have a cap of 3,000 medical students per year. Of course letting immigrants in to do anything but the dirtiest jobs is unthinkable. So with an aging population (especially in poorly-served rural areas) the number of doctors is kept artificially low to reduce competition. That's pretty insane to begin with, but it gets worse. Somehow there's a quota for the number of total medical students but no quotas for how many have to go into different fields, so most of them choose to become dermatologists. It turns out that in a skin-obsessed culture you can make a lot more money that way than by delivering babies in some village out in the mountains. (Also some of the "dermatology" clinics are just places where rich people go to get shot up with propofol. They're literally just drug dealers.)

So President Yun Seok-Yul tried to increase the quota to 5,000/year. The doctors went apeshit and went on strike. That was back in February and they still are refusing to back down. The public is starting to realize that doctors are a cabal who've got a monopoly on health care and intend to squeeze the most possible cash out of it. The doctors are also pissed now that nurses are being allowed to take over some duties that used to be theirs. Well maybe show up and do the work if you don't want someone else to?

It's a good thing doctors in other countries aren't exactly the same...

:marseyhmm:

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