Prediction markets made up of idiot rationalist types displayed an idiot rationalist belief that the country would make the suicidal mistake of putting a 78 year old man in power again.
How do you think the Puerto Rico joke will affect the election?
greyenlightenment investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ... dsfewr 3d ago
Judging by the massive surge in DJT stock this morning, or prediction markets, not at all.
So a bunch of Trump people have a party and they go home and they put their feelings into a market action and someone says "look, there's market action, that must mean we're winning."
It's a circular process, a bubble like this.
But people are starting to realize: the prediction markets take the existing available information, and then add feelings about the election from men who are well known to be inclined to emotional thinking.
And $DJT continues to lose money as people get out. Peak $DJT was mid-October, since then it's just a slow, steady decline, which has continued today.
Donald J Trump is Dead in the Water.
The market knows it.
The polls say it's 50/50. The feelings markets say Trump will win. The real market is dumping the garbage stock. Between the feelings market and the real market, I trust the real market.
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Like LMAO does even a single foid use polymarket? No, of course not.
Yet many foids will vote. 
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this is priced in r-slur
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it's rational it just has to be because the word 'market' is involved
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What do you think the actual probability is? Why not bet and make a bunch of money?
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t.
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bets on other people's votes are not votes.
people who risk money betting on an election outcome (which will include ~50% votes by foids) understand this fact.
you don't.
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t.
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Does jinxing work when it's this obvious?
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I love that with Biden gone, a 78 year old man is now a problem
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It ain't over till the
sings.
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What's effective antagonism?
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good question, I'm still thinking about it, but 'getting banned from SFBA Rationalist Cult political venues for calling Trumpism 'fascism'' is probably a primary exemplar.
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one time a rationalist started a murder gang thing that killed someons
and ppl on lesswrong recognized the gang members like "oh s/he lived with me a few months"
dude rationalists lmao
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I don't think there are enough FTM to swing the betting market.
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@ZombieWolf want trump too lose now so it will make carp mad.
@ZombieWolf love sucking peepee!
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I'm a huge cute twink and i endorse this message
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What does the price of $djt have to do with the election? God you're r-slurred.
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It seems like the betting markets are just returning to what the polls are saying which is 50/50
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The idea that "predictions markets" are somehow indicative of anything truthful is an astonishing development.
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because the incentives are aligned.
"experts" don't maximize their income by finding the best estimates for the probabilities of outcomes, especially in the case of rare events (or one-off events like this election).
bettors do.
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what?
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if something has 34% chance of happening and you buy for $350 a contract that pays you $1000 in the case that it happens, you're a sucker who lost $10. if someone sells it to you for $330, they're the sucker who lost $10. there's only one price for that contract at which neither buyer nor seller lose money: $340.
everyone betting has a financial incentive to not be a sucker, and their incentive grows proportionally with the size of their bet.
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My kamala bet is up 15 percent from yesterday wish i went all in i could have seen this coming
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Snapshots:
Look at this guy on TheMotte.:
ghostarchive.org
archive.org
archive.ph (click to archive)
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