Statistically, by which week of premier league is the top 4 teams fixed too maximize @ObamaBinLaden's fantasy points? ( @ObamaBinLaden say this as a feminist ally )

@ObamaBinLaden say this as a feminist ally , all of it

So !mathematics and !football , I have joined fantasy premier league for fun this year even though I have no idea about soccer in general other than Messi won the world cup in 2022/23 ( @nuclearshill told me he had the entire alphabet of illicit drugs in his system for a week in celebration) and Spain won the European Nations football cup (total Spanish domination) beating the pale island monkeys which Carp was supporting (even though he's an Appalachian fent slinging booger fricker)

I've been seeing that either Liverpool FC or Manchester City FC have been winning the league for the last few years but @ObamaBinLaden can only take 3 players from each team and the guys in the back don't get much points.

https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/fantasy-premier-league-the-top-30-fpl-players-from-last-season

All the top point players are either in the middle of strikers. So @ObamaBinLaden have just decided too play the wildcard which let's you do unlimited transfers one time and pack it with the lowest price guys in the back and goalkeeper and put all money on the few guys who get the most points. The catch is that all the players with the most points belong too the 4 or 5 teams who end up on the top of the table.

Obviously these 4 or 5 (maybe 6) teams are fixed in their bracket by a certain point in the season. @ObamaBinLaden want you're help too find out when exactly does that happen. But if you say @ObamaBinLaden can only be 95+% sure after the 25th week, that's of no use, since the amount of points the players accumulate after that is good but the real bounty has slipped away.

Time for stats, nerdloos

Interestingly, a closer look at the findings from the 2019 study highlighted just how stable the league table becomes after just 10 matchweeks.

In the Premier League, the researchers found that 77 per cent of the statistical variance in the final league standings was explained by matchweek 10. By matchweek 20, that rose to 87 per cent. By matchweek 30, it was 94 per cent.

In other words, looking at the league table as early as November does give a decent indication towards the final positions held by each team.

And 3 out of the top 5 highest scoring months are in December

Yes, there can be big statistical deviations after the first 10 weeks, @ObamaBinLaden is not interested in that. The target is too get the most points by the time the season peaks. Not root for any team too win.

But even then, the stats are pretty straightforward

After the first 10 weeks, the top 6 teams are secured too score goals and generally end on a good note

Only highlighted part is important

If you want the full paper, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6919612/pdf/pone.0225696.pdf