Thoughts on Nassim Taleb and the Incerto series?

!bookworms !mathematics

I read four of the 5 Incerto books (the only one I didn't is "The Bed of Procrustes").

It's been a while but my takes were that "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan" had legit interesting ideas and concepts along Taleb's anecdotes.

"Antifragile" and "Skin in the Game" had some interesting ideas, but the writing style went down considerably, he became so full of himself. Check this excerpt from "Antifragile" for instance

In the aftermath of the banking crisis, I received all manner of threats, and The Wall Street Journal suggested that I 'stock up on bodyguards.' I tried to tell myself no worries, stay calm, these threats were coming from disgruntled bankers; anyway, people get whacked first, then you read about it in the newspapers, not in the reverse sequence. But the argument did not register in my mind, and, when in New York or London, I could not relax, even after chamomile tea. I started feeling paranoia in public places, scrutinizing people to ascertain that I was not being followed. I started taking the bodyguard suggestion seriously, and I found it more appealing (and considerably more economical) to become one, or, better, to look like one. I found Lenny 'Cake,' a trainer, weighing around two hundred and eighty pounds (one hundred and thirty kilograms), who moonlighted as a security person. His nickname and weight both came from his predilection for cakes. Lenny Cake was the most physically intimidating person within five zip codes, and he was sixty. So, rather than taking lessons, I watched him train. He was into the 'maximum lifts' type of training and swore by it, as he found it the most effective and least time-consuming. This method consisted of short episodes in the gym in which one focused solely on improving one's past maximum in a single lift, the heaviest weight one could haul, sort of the high-water mark. The workout was limited to trying to exceed that mark once or twice, rather than spending time on un-entertaining time-consuming repetitions. The exercise got me into a naturalistic form of weightlifting, and one that accords with the evidence-based literature: work on the maximum, spend the rest of the time resting and splurging on mafia-sized steaks. I have been trying to push my limit for four years now; it is amazing to see how something in my biology anticipates a higher level than the past maximum—until it reaches its ceiling. When I deadlift (i.e., mimic lifting a stone to waist level) using a bar with three hundred and thirty pounds, then rest, I can safely expect that I will build a certain amount of additional strength as my body predicts that next time I may need to lift three hundred and thirty-five pounds. The benefits, beyond the fading of my paranoia and my newfound calm in public places, includes small unexpected conveniences. When I am harassed by limo drivers in the arrival hall at Kennedy airport insistently offering me a ride and I calmly tell them to 'f*** off,' they go away immediately

For those who don't know him, he's foul-mouthed Lebanese-American statistician and risk analyzer (and a former stockbroker).

His twitter is super unhinged and dramapilled (fights with cryptostrags, antivaxxers, Nate Silver, plus berating Jordan Memerson, Steven Pinker, Lex Friedman, pan-arabists). Since october 7th however his Twitter became just boring sandshit stuff, kind of like an angrier @Redactor0 thread of comments.

His sub discusses it

https://old.reddit.com/r/nassimtaleb/comments/1923uef/talebs_tweets_getting_angrier_and_crazier/

The Lobsterson and the Nate Silver drama always makes me laugh

LOL I can't believe all it took was for someone to stand up to your bullying by trolling you back for you to turn into such a cuck.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 8, 2019