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Moemorphism (Japanese: 萌え擬人化, Hepburn: moe gijinka) is a form of anthropomorphism in anime and manga where moe (approx. "cute") qualities are given to non-human beings such as animals, plants, objects, concepts, or phenomena.
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One common response when it's pointed out that you can't always tell is “well we can tell 99% of the time”, or some other high percentage pulled out of nowhere. This is a clear overestimate of how often someone can tell, but let's charitably assume that that number is true for a moment and do some maths. If you could tell who was trans or not 99% of the time, that would still lead to nearly two thirds of the people you read as trans actually being cis.
The mathematics is clear, using Bayes theorem.
Even if we very charitably assume that the sensitivity and specificity of "we can always tell" in detecting a trans person is both 98% then they are still wrong 50% of the time and accuse a cis person of being trans.
This is because there are vastly more cisgender than transgender people.
Snapshots:
https://bsky.app/profile/mokkoyu.bsky.social/post/3kkt5dz5mnh27:
ghostarchive.org
archive.org
archive.ph (click to archive)
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