The math is pretty simple. Israel only needs to engage Hamas for 2 years before they can succeed in their goals to liberate the Gaza Strip from Hamas and bring peace to the region.
I modeled Israel's liberation operation based on the decreasing density of embedded Hamas terrorists among the population, rather than as a function of total decreasing population.
This is a more valid analysis because as there are fewer Hamas to specifically target, there will simply be fewer strikes. The model also always assumes that 30% of all kills will be Hamas, the rest are their human shields.
Modeling it this way does create an asymptote, and I also forced integer values since you can't kill half a terrorist, meaning that some calculations will never decrease below a certain value once applied.
It works out that two years after the Oct 7 attacks, there will be fewer than 1000 members of Hamas left, and fewer than 60,000 civilian deaths.
This is less than half of the German civilian deaths produced by the Red Army in the Battle of Berlin. The Soviets accepted those losses because they were killing Nazis, and since Palestinian terrorism was founded by Hitler through Al-Husseini, Israel is merely trying to kill Nazis too.
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This assumes israel is telling the truth about number of Hamas soldiers killed
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Eve if you drop it to 10% it only goes out to 4 years. Compare than to the US in Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan.
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Fair, but I doubt the axis of resistance will just let israel indiscriminately kill civilians for 4 years nonstop. Israel will never eliminate Hamas
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This model is very discriminating. It accounts for proportionally reduced strikes against Hamas as there are fewer Hamas.
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Does the model assumes that all airstrikes are against Hamas? Otherwise we would not be seeing this number of civilian casualties (if they were all targetting Hamas)
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If you have a table with 11 people and one Hamas sits down then you have a dozen Hamas
Yes of course it assumes you're trying to hit Hamas. If there are fewer Hamas then you are striking with less frequency. The civilian deaths keep decreasing.
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Israel is trying to kill civilians and genocide gaza
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If they were randomly killing civilians they wouldn't get a 30% Hamas kill percent.
With 2.3M population and 25,000 Hamas, they would have only killed 200 Hamas out of 20,000 randomly targeted people in two months.
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simply, they don't have a 30% hamas kill percent
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Keyed tbh
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