Saudi Arabia is going to turn into the next Turkey in terms of liberal Islam. That much is guaranteed at this point in time.
UAE is pretty much an international destination with 74% muslim population and declining.
We now have three liberalizing arab nation states - Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and UAE.
With a fourth one being obliterated. Palestine.
This leaves the west to deal with Syria, Iraq, and Iran.
Of these three, Syria should be the easiest to take down, as without Russian support, Syria will have no way to defend itself against Western intervention.
The primary trade partner of Syria today is Saudi Arabia.
With Saudi Arabia on the side of the west, it opens up a position for the west to influence Syria through Saudi Arabia.
In the long run we can expect Syria to be westernized and liberalized similar to Saudi Arabia due to its geographic location and Isolation from the eastern powers.
Hezbollah is the primary thorn remaining in the middle east.
If hezbollah could be put down, the middle east would indisputably belong to the western powers.
A conflict breaking out between Israel and Hezbollah is almost guaranteed at this point. Hezbollah would lose such a conflict with Israel willing to go as far as it has to now to maintain its security in the region.
We can expect an active war to break out between Lebanon and Israel this year.
In conclusion:
the middle east has fallen to the west.
Sub Saharan Africa will become the new center of Radical Islam.
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They already have been (the Alawis at least) for like 50 years.
What does losing mean here? The Israelis occupy south Lebanon? They occupied south Lebanon for 18 years and didn't destroy Hezbollah. In fact they got chased out in a rout.
Don't expect anyone to force a modern nation state into unconditional surrender like it's ww2.
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If Syria is westernized then why did Syria fall?
They destroy the organization similar to how ISIS was destroyed in the middle east.
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Because being westernized doesn't solve all your problems. Turkey aggressively westernized in the 1920s. Iran westernized in the 1930s-1970s. And those countries don't have their shit together today.
So they go into south Beirut and spend a couple years searching it house by house and taking thousands of casualties? Because that's how the Iraqis defeated ISIS. And they were using their elite troops with lots of training and experience so don't tell me that IDF conscripts are better.
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Iran does have its shit together taking into account the amount of adversity it has faced and its still not collapsed.
Bombs. Like Gaza but bigger.
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That would at the very least completely destroy their ties with Arab states, and a lot of Europe. They're getting away with doing it in Gaza because everyone hates Palestinians and it was already a shithole to begin with. Blowing up half of an Arab capital is way too far.
Also that would probably get the US to finally just stop giving them bombs
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Maybe. Let's focus on what's on the table right now.
Gaza is done for. We can at least agree on that.
I hear there are already cholera outbreaks in the region.
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Except hamas still exists in gaza and is basically unharmed
@Communist_spez stand with ukraine
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Wrong. HAMAS is going to lose 100% guarantee.
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2 more weeks
@Communist_spez stand with ukraine
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I agree. 2 more weeks.
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