Bard spotting on Bluesky 18 January 2025

Matthew Cortland (they) (@matthewcort.land):

[HYPO ⚠️]

A meteor is hurtling rapidly towards impact with a particular city. In approximately 48 hours, impact is projected to wipe out most life in the city

48 hours isn't enough time to evacuate even 10% of the population. Should residents be warned anyway?

Ms. Penny Oaken, SkyWitch (@skywitches.net):

If you knew 100% that no one aware of the impending incident would leak, then, No.

🔘 potential impacts are "near misses" far more often than actual impacts; "this will 100% hit at xyz" is almost impossible to call

🔘 ensuing panic over announcement would have a body count

Ms. Penny Oaken, SkyWitch (@skywitches.net):

If, however, you hypothetically had the tech to get the kinds of highly precise readings that give you 99.99999% "will hit at xyz", then you should advise - because "two people can keep a secret if one of them is dead". Someone will leak.

Ms. Penny Oaken, SkyWitch (@skywitches.net):

You have to announce so that civil defense / government can coordinate against opportunistic attacks by adversaries, as well as evac as possible

Ms. Penny Oaken, SkyWitch (@skywitches.net):

Depending on how precisely you can forecast impact, you can prioritise evacuation by air of the population at ground zero, and SIP for those increasingly at distance