https://apnews.com/article/botswana-election-masisi-concedes-80951b62fdb7169f073c2b13acaff1b6
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Looking into it seems it's due to vote splitting between the ruling party and a split off led by Seretse's sons who left the party. This happened last election too but this time the split of and main opposition seemed to have settled into an electoral pact of some sort.
This plus a campaign promise of minimum wage increases seems to have tipped it.
First past the post of course helped too.
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