@gigachad_brony's comment on 'AI development is going to slow down'

AI development is going to slow down

https://community.openai.com/t/new-articles-are-saying-chat-gpt-5-not-coming-out-until-2025-this-is-way-too-long-as-4-refuses-at-coding-10s-of-thousands-of-lines/835858

ChatGPT went all in on increasing the amount of data to work with to boost the AI capabilities, but just like all other tech sectors, it seems pretty clear that we find diminishing returns with each doubling in the amount of data.

Currently we have reached that point where only trillion dollar companies are capable of building better and better AI fast.

General AI even now can regurgitate the best answers, but it hasn't shown the capacity to create something truly new, that comes with the randomness that emerges from biological evolution.

General AI is limited by the total knowledge of humanity being fed into it, beyond which it cannot grow no matter what. It is the world's smartest answering machine.

Will AI be able to replace humanity? No.

Will AI be able to make robotic equivalents to human labor? Yes.

Today, the most advanced AI in the world is Gemini by google.

It is taking the efforts of the 4th most valued company in the world to keep developing and upgrading AI further.

The current AI boom was a random discovery and it will slow down as fast as it rose up.

General AI will very likely peak at being 2-3 times smarter than the smartest human, then go no further.

This is because it cannot create anything new, it can only pattern match all the data that already exists out there.

Until and unless we give AI the ability to "mutate" like human DNA does, it will reach an upper limit and stagnate at that point.

Conclusion:

AI won't take over the world. It will be another tool to help humans create more things faster, and finish up all the current backlog of research projects.

Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

View entire discussion

JimieWhales she/bitch An educated, strictly organic, ortho molecular aware patriotic princess. 4mo ago #6650211

Lots of people agree with you

The rate of improvement for AIs is slowing, and there appear to be fewer applications than originally imagined for even the most capable of them. It is wildly expensive to build and run AI. New, competing AI models are popping up constantly, but it takes a long time for them to have a meaningful impact on how most people actually work.

Most of the measurable and qualitative improvements in today's large language model AIs like OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Gemini—including their talents for writing and analysis—come down to shoving ever more data into them.

These models work by digesting huge volumes of text, and it's undeniable that up to now, simply adding more has led to better capabilities. But a major barrier to continuing down this path is that companies have already trained their AIs on more or less the entire internet, and are running out of additional data to hoover up. There aren't 10 more internets' worth of human-generated content for today's AIs to inhale.