ChatGPT went all in on increasing the amount of data to work with to boost the AI capabilities, but just like all other tech sectors, it seems pretty clear that we find diminishing returns with each doubling in the amount of data.
Currently we have reached that point where only trillion dollar companies are capable of building better and better AI fast.
General AI even now can regurgitate the best answers, but it hasn't shown the capacity to create something truly new, that comes with the randomness that emerges from biological evolution.
General AI is limited by the total knowledge of humanity being fed into it, beyond which it cannot grow no matter what. It is the world's smartest answering machine.
Will AI be able to replace humanity? No.
Will AI be able to make robotic equivalents to human labor? Yes.
Today, the most advanced AI in the world is Gemini by google.
It is taking the efforts of the 4th most valued company in the world to keep developing and upgrading AI further.
The current AI boom was a random discovery and it will slow down as fast as it rose up.
General AI will very likely peak at being 2-3 times smarter than the smartest human, then go no further.
This is because it cannot create anything new, it can only pattern match all the data that already exists out there.
Until and unless we give AI the ability to "mutate" like human DNA does, it will reach an upper limit and stagnate at that point.
Conclusion:
AI won't take over the world. It will be another tool to help humans create more things faster, and finish up all the current backlog of research projects.
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It seems like LLMs best case will basically be able to return something in the convex combination of what's in the data that they're trained on. This will expand human knowledge in the sense that it will be able to combine previously separated ideas that weren't yet connected thereby filling in "interior" gaps we haven't filled yet, but it won't be able to expand beyond the convex hull (except as a research tool that complements a human, e.g., aiding in coding up data analysis.)
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Exactly my belief. Great minds think alike.
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Wrong
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great minds think independently and reach the same conclusion
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Oh yeah? Did Einstein come up with relativity by reaching the same conclusion as everyone else?
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Yes? He just got there first.
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So you would have come up with relativity, huh?
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yes
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