ChatGPT went all in on increasing the amount of data to work with to boost the AI capabilities, but just like all other tech sectors, it seems pretty clear that we find diminishing returns with each doubling in the amount of data.
Currently we have reached that point where only trillion dollar companies are capable of building better and better AI fast.
General AI even now can regurgitate the best answers, but it hasn't shown the capacity to create something truly new, that comes with the randomness that emerges from biological evolution.
General AI is limited by the total knowledge of humanity being fed into it, beyond which it cannot grow no matter what. It is the world's smartest answering machine.
Will AI be able to replace humanity? No.
Will AI be able to make robotic equivalents to human labor? Yes.
Today, the most advanced AI in the world is Gemini by google.
It is taking the efforts of the 4th most valued company in the world to keep developing and upgrading AI further.
The current AI boom was a random discovery and it will slow down as fast as it rose up.
General AI will very likely peak at being 2-3 times smarter than the smartest human, then go no further.
This is because it cannot create anything new, it can only pattern match all the data that already exists out there.
Until and unless we give AI the ability to "mutate" like human DNA does, it will reach an upper limit and stagnate at that point.
Conclusion:
AI won't take over the world. It will be another tool to help humans create more things faster, and finish up all the current backlog of research projects.
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Yes, surely now AI has plateaued forever. This post will age well.
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I never said forever, I said slowed down.
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Well it hasn't even done that.
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it has gpt 5 wont come out in 2025
The US is scrambling to find the next moores law and nothings working
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Claude 3.5.
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Barely above chatgpt 4. Worse in some areas. Gemini is the peak currently and that has a multi trillion company behind it.
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It'll come from some random sexy Indian dude intern at google, just like the current boom
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Disagree. Human IQ increases 2 points per decade in the best case scenario.
Tech development scales up at far higher rates.
The only reason tech continues to scale up so fast is not due to intelligence increase in humans but due to aggregation of smart humans together into ever tighter organizations.
The world will run out of geniuses to stack together before we are going to get another technological revolution on the scale of the internet and the mobile phone.
The US already has problem keeping Boeing and SpaceX competent at the same time. There are just not enough competent people at the high end to spread around.
Microsoft buying up all the smaller companies ( hundreds of billions instead of trillions of dollars ) is the only way ahead.
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The current boom is not due to stacking raw intelligence, but random trial and error by many many people where 1 idea happened to be the next level. This is simple evolution on a memetic scale.
The world has 8 billion people, finding individuals a few standard deviations above the mean is ultimately not that hard.
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Alright, hear me out.
An IQ of 147 puts you in the top 0.1% of humans out there.
The IQ of the average person with a PhD is 125 which is considered superior. That's the top 4.8% of humans.
Top 0.1% of humans would be about 8 million humans.
Top 4.8% of humans would be 384 million humans.
Today, less than 2% of the world has a P.hD.
So, we could probably increase that number by 2.5 times.
The geniuses that actually make real progress are generally in the top 0.1% though. Honestly, the US has probably already brain drained 90-99% of those top 0.1% group.
So again, the cream of the crop has already been used up, now the US is stuck bringing in the top 5% of humans from around the world, where they are competing with the EU, China, Japan, Oceania, and Canada, for those people.
The world just doesn't produce enough geniuses per year to feed the machine. We are at the high end fruit side of things. Only thing that improves every two years is semiconductors and who knows how long that is going to hold.
I really do believe there aren't enough geniuses around the world to keep the gravy train going and the number of fields that are growing exponentially will keep declining over the years as more and more geniuses need to be focused together on acquiring a single high level fruit.
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K
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