ChatGPT went all in on increasing the amount of data to work with to boost the AI capabilities, but just like all other tech sectors, it seems pretty clear that we find diminishing returns with each doubling in the amount of data.
Currently we have reached that point where only trillion dollar companies are capable of building better and better AI fast.
General AI even now can regurgitate the best answers, but it hasn't shown the capacity to create something truly new, that comes with the randomness that emerges from biological evolution.
General AI is limited by the total knowledge of humanity being fed into it, beyond which it cannot grow no matter what. It is the world's smartest answering machine.
Will AI be able to replace humanity? No.
Will AI be able to make robotic equivalents to human labor? Yes.
Today, the most advanced AI in the world is Gemini by google.
It is taking the efforts of the 4th most valued company in the world to keep developing and upgrading AI further.
The current AI boom was a random discovery and it will slow down as fast as it rose up.
General AI will very likely peak at being 2-3 times smarter than the smartest human, then go no further.
This is because it cannot create anything new, it can only pattern match all the data that already exists out there.
Until and unless we give AI the ability to "mutate" like human DNA does, it will reach an upper limit and stagnate at that point.
Conclusion:
AI won't take over the world. It will be another tool to help humans create more things faster, and finish up all the current backlog of research projects.
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Sometimes it be like 3 but other times it's more 1 or 2
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yes. Also I think the world only has enough geniuses to make noticeable advances in like 6-7 industries at the same time at most.
Currently we are leading in:
1. Mobiles and other consumer electronics
2. Batteries ( Mobile phones that can stay charged the entire day or two even with constant use )
3. Renewable energy
4. Space tech ( Elon Musk is the only guy making a real difference )
5. Biotech ( Brain interfaces, cancer survival improvements, robot pills )
6. AI ( Slowing down already )
7. Semiconductors ( I have no clue how they are going to keep advancing it for another decade it feels like it is already at its limits )
Everything else including physics, math, and chemistry appear to be stuck in place waiting for the next billions of dollars to discover something new by mistake.
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Batteries are probably the most magical underappreciated thing about modern life. I just have little earbuds in my pocket that can connect to my phone and play music for 6-8 hours and I don't even need to think about charging them. They're 4 or 5 years old at this point. Old phone and iPod and Zune batteries always lost their ability to hold a charge after a 2 years max. It's not always that you get to see such huge jumps in technology during 10 years or so. How neat is that?
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That's true. One thing I like about China is that they haven't yet reached the peak of their technological capabilities, maybe once they start falling into the demographic decline, they can once again cooperate with the west to push forward human technology.
I bet the world could go back to a high innovation and technological development rate if the Chinese and the west weren't busy trying to develop the same things separately.
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