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  • ikitomi : Where's the drama? At least post a twitter slap fight.

Reminder: We still haven't found the population floor for modern cultures so far.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1034075/fertility-rate-world-continents-1950-2020/

Every continent is at the lowest fertility rate it has ever been on so far. Besides Africa and Oceania all continents are below replacement fertility rate, and the two that are above replacement are still consistently on the decline. While there are cultures with a steady fertility rate, these are often below replacement and still decline after 2-3 decades to newest low.

South Korea managed to reach the lowest fertility rate at 0.72 and is still set for decline.

It is possible that for Humans the actual lowest low fertility rate might be pandas ( that is zero fertility rate ).

All realistic population projections have to account for the fact that lowest low fertility rate hasn't been reached so far.

So here are the realistic projections for global population and fertility:

1. Highest high - Fertility rates remain the same through the century as they are today. - 13.59 billion population in 2100 and rising.

2. Medium - Global population growth rate declines at a rate of 0.1% every 5 years. 10.13 billion population peak by 2069 before decline.

3. Low projection - Global population growth rate declines at a rate of 0.1% every 2-3 years. 9.05 billion population peak by 2046 followed by decline in global population.

Most likely scenario, global population peaks earlier than 2080 as projected by the UN, makes it no higher than 9.5 billion humans peak at most.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

Also I have no idea where the fertility rate actually increased in the past two years to explain the increase in population growth over the past two years.

As per macrotrends the fertility rate is rising in every country which sounds, incorrect to say the least.

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It amuses me when people who gleefully dunk on creationists (ofc they deserve it :marseybrainlet: that's not the point) also see declining population and think it will always continue that way. Like we aren't seeing the mother of all selection effects rn. At most you'll get a few generations of temporary decline before solidly fertile subpopulations start taking over. Enjoy your mormon/amish/r-slur :marseypaintretard: ruled future (well you won't because your bloodline will have died out :marseyakbar:)

The fun part is this means the doomer predictions of Malthusian collapse and misery :marseyanorexia: are still possible, it just might take a little longer to happen.

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