The absolute state of Kamalabros

https://old.reddit.com/r/OutOfTheLoop/comments/1gcp579/what_is_up_with_who_is_really_ahead_in_the_us/

I'm really confused. Traditional news media, polls (like 538), and Vegas betting odds show Trump winning. But all my social media (tik tok, Reddit) are flooded with posts about how Harris will win in a landslide. I saw that trumps ppl are maybe inflating the polls? And that news outlets want it to be a close race, but couldn't it still be close if Harris was in the lead? What's to be believed?

Reddit says he's bad so how can Trump be winning?

Answers

Answer: Polling accurately is hard. People say they support a candidate but then don't show up to vote. People say they support a candidate publicly, but in the secrecy of the voting booth vote for someone else (rural women voters could be in this bucket this year). Polling a representative population is hard - some people don't want to talk to pollsters, so often you only get responses from the most vocal ones. Vegas odds are about equalizing the pot for who is betting on who, not who is voting for who. Sometimes an October surprise or last minute event flips people's choice. Even polls outside voting locations on Election Day can get it wrong. Typically absentee voters lean Democratic and those votes can be counted after the polls close if they are postmarked by Election Day. In short, polls should be considered "directional", not accurate.

The key is that everyone eligible should vote. We'll know how it turns out in a couple weeks. There's no way to know for sure any earlier than that.

Answer: it's a tossup. All polling aggregators are saying it's a tossup.

Also Republicans must continually state that it's too close to call so they can try to be more convincing about the inevitable steal attempt that's assured to take place. They already have aggressive plans to challenge results in any state they lose and expect the supreme court to appoint trump.

Answer: Absolutely frick polls.

I don't think any of the polls are getting a good read of younger voters. They tend not to vote but the overturn of Roe v. Wade impacts them enormously and they know it. I think it will be a huge factor this year.

Exactly. Gen Z came out swinging in droves in 2022. They came out in such massive numbers that they effectively "cancelled out" the conservative boomer vote, one of the most dedicated and consistent voting blocs. 2022 was supposedly the "Brace yourselves for the Red Wave" election and we saw how that turned out.

I've stopped paying heed/attention to most polls after that election.