A candidate capable of advocating for herself and driving a message in earned media daily has significant upside that’s not captured in static polling. pic.twitter.com/k2fw235CLg

— Matthew 🥥🥥🥥Yglesias (@mattyglesias) July 12, 2024

i'm fricking crying do we have a marsey version of this meme yet

"President Biden has Parkinson's. So what?" -- David Pakman pic.twitter.com/FaOtGPXaLj

— Greg vs Crabitalism 🦀🇭🇷🇵🇸 (@bigmadcrab) July 11, 2024

This pretty well proves he's getting pumped up with adderall or something. He gave a speech today where he did just fine, but in these zoom calls with his own congressmen he had to be protected from answering questions. Within a few hours his handlers went from not trusting him to talk with his own people in private to being confident he could go out on stage and make a half hour speech. What could have possibly happened during that time?

journos mad that !nooticers nooticed

For years, far-right commentators have floated a conspiracy theory that Democratic Party elites were secretly plotting to replace President Biden on the ticket --- a switcheroo that could give the party an advantage in November.

Suddenly, Mr. Biden being replaced by another Democrat as the party's presidential nominee seems like a distinct possibility.

There is no evidence that the chaotic events following June's debate were planned or that Mr. Biden's halting performance was intentional. But the crisis over his candidacy has right-wing influencers heralding the moment as a conspiracy theory turned true.

"It was their final opportunity to toss the old man to one side, as I've been saying for the entire last year and a half," said Vivek Ramaswamy, the former Republican presidential candidate, in a podcast interview after the debate.

"What they described as a conspiracy theory last year has become a reality today," he added.

Far-right social media is rife with outlandish, unproven stories of Democratic crimes and rigged elections. Most of those ideas fizzle over time as they fail to come true.

But every now and then, one of those stories collides with reality. The influencers who spread the ideas seize on their luck, using the moment to lend credibility to their work and cement their relationship with followers.

Discussion about Mr. Biden's candidacy surged on right-wing social networks after the debate, according to Pyrra Technologies, a company that monitors those channels. The firm found tens of thousands of posts discussing the debate. Many of them mentioned elements of the conspiracy theory.

"They're trying to get other people to believe in their reality, too," said Rachel E. Moran, a senior research scientist at the Center for an Informed Public, who has studied conspiracy theories. "So these moments of truth, these bridging moments, are where they can try to get other people on board."

She added that conspiracists rely on those nuggets of truth as "a moment to be able to talk about, 'Oh, well, if that's true, then the rest of the things I'm talking about must be true.'"

While parts of any conspiracy theory are sometimes proven true, the larger story --- usually involving shadowy groups or convoluted schemes --- remains entirely unproved. Still, believers tend to focus instead on anything that makes the conspiracy seem more believable.

Some far-right Americans have, for example, claimed that Covid-19 vaccines were a plot among global elites to wipe out scores of Americans. While a small number of people have fallen ill after receiving some vaccines, and far fewer have died, the dangers never rose to the claims pushed by anti-vaxxers, nor is there evidence of a global plot. Still, any illness or death was quickly leveraged as evidence that the conspiracy theory was true.

Details about the conspiracy theory surrounding Mr. Biden vary depends on who is telling it. But the broad strokes are usually the same: that Democratic Party elites have been scheming to replace Mr. Biden with another preferred candidate. Sabotaging Mr. Biden with a bad debate performance would give those elites a chance to anoint a replacement, the theory goes. The last-minute change would bypass the protracted primary process that can sometimes embarrass or tarnish candidates, allowing them to undermine Democratic primary voters in the process. They would also short-circuit the Republican counteroffensive.

"You get the honeymoon phase with a new candidate without the scrutiny that comes with it," Mr. Ramaswamy told Fox News before the debate.

The reality seems far less orchestrated. Democrats first appeared crestfallen by Mr. Biden's unsteady debate performance, then scrambled to align behind a single response, with some party leaders backing Mr. Biden and others calling for his replacement.

If Mr. Biden were to withdraw from the race, it would probably cause political upheaval as various factions press for their preferred candidate. Anointing a successor without fuss seems nearly impossible.

It has not helped Mr. Biden, whose poll numbers have slipped.

Yet the idea that Democrats would plot to replace Mr. Biden has meshed with views perpetuated by former President Donald J. Trump about the Democratic Party, that its members are not just politically wrong, but remarkably conniving.

That conspiracy theory has also gained traction with help from another baseless belief, shared among many Trump supporters, that Mr. Biden is merely a puppet of Democratic elites or a shadowy political body referred to as the Deep State.

"I think a lot of these people are kind of experiencing a broken clock being at least partially correct twice a day," said Jared Holt, a senior research analyst at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, a nonprofit research group. "It makes sense they would take a victory lap on it, if they can."

the most diverse presidential ticket of all time

I just hung up with my friend who works in D.C. The guy who has nailed everything and given me inside scoops for months that have led to viral tweets, correct predictions and he has not been wrong yet. Not sure if I should post this, but:

Jill Biden is running the country right…

— Black Insurrectionist--I FOLLOW BACK TRUE PATRIOTS (@DocNetyoutube) July 12, 2024

!schizomaxxxers

Joe Biden’s largest Super PAC of $90 million has just reportedly frozen its funds and won’t unfreeze them until Biden exits the race.

Good luck campaigning without money Joe! pic.twitter.com/AP9ES92tEF

— Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) July 12, 2024

the law will eliminate the board of canvasser's investigative powers, instead requiring the board to refer any allegations of fraud to the relevant county prosecutor, rather than conducting a recount.

Only alleged errors could merit a recount, and only when the alleged errors could potentially change election results.

It will also increase the deposit for filing a recount petition, modify various guidelines for clerks, and change sentencing guidelines for election law violations.

the tapes are real but the deep state is preventing their release

https://nypost.com/2024/07/11/us-news/hillary-clinton-warns-mutinous-dems-they-cant-force-biden-out-jokes-its-like-taking-the-keys-away-from-older-parents/

!chuds !nonchuds

!chuds !neolibs

stolen from the cope thread on /r/destiny

It doesn't matter that 95% of what he said was fine. Making two big gaffs like this in the same day does not improve his "I'm fine, just watch me" position. He's still better than Trump, but you're not going to convince a lot of people of that. It's easier to raise the profile of some other Democrats.

If you think Biden can just "bow out" without Republicans leveraging the courts to ratfrick a new candidate off of the ballot in multiple states with the Supreme Court's blessing, you haven't been paying attention.

he should just stop doing live appearances. just do multiple takes with an editor and release videos. The gaffes are each their own (memorable) story, him not doing public appearances would be one (boring) story.

That might work if he was ahead in the polls, but he's got a lot of ground to make up. You don't gain 5% in the national polls by avoiding public appearances.

man that was hard to watch.

Yeah, it got pretty boring around the middle when it was just an ordinary discussion of foreign policy. What year does he think it is? 1980?

This subreddit is full of people who didn't watch the press conference doing republicans jobs for them. The state of politics in this country is fricking pathetic.

The average voter isn't watching whole nato press conferences, how the president looks overall matters. Pretending it doesn't is weird

Amerikkka is actually picking one of the two cucks for a president

anyone else watching? He's only got another 45min beforw bed time

edit: maybe this is why?

https://rdrama.net/h/pol/post/282954/things-go-from-bad-to-worse

he also called Zelensky "Putin" today

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-12/joe-biden-press-conference-live-blog/104079562

edit: lmao, he just called Kamala "vice president Trump"

Final edit:

NBC News reported on Thursday that sources inside President Joe Biden's reelection campaign are saying the president's reelection efforts are doomed.

The bombshell report said that Biden's "closest allies, including three people who are directly involved in efforts to re-elect him, told NBC News they now see his chances of winning as zero --- and the likelihood of him taking down fellow Democratic candidates growing."

"He needs to drop out. He will never recover from this," the report quoted one campaign official as saying.

Calls have continued to grow for President Biden to drop out of the race following his disastrous debate against Donald Trump in late June. Sen. Pete Welch (D-VT) became the first sitting Democratic senator on Wednesday night to urge Biden to step aside, despite the president's stern efforts to rally support and stop the bleeding.

"No one involved in the effort thinks he has a path," NBC News quoted "a second person working to elect" Biden. The report added:

A third person close to the re-election campaign said the present situation --- the questions swirling around Biden's cognitive abilities, the dearth of fundraising and more polls showing Biden dropping in support and other candidates faring better --- is unsustainable. This person also said they didn't see how the campaign could win.

All of them spoke on the condition of anonymity because they don't want to be seen as further damaging a candidate they appreciate for his victory over then-President Donald Trump in 2020 and his policy wins in the White House. But two others close to Biden told NBC News that while they haven't given up all hope of a turnaround, they see that as an increasingly unlikely outcome. And they believe the goal of defeating Trump in November should take precedence over backing Biden.

"The question for me, and a lot of us, is: Who is the best person to beat Donald Trump? There are a lot of us that are true blue that are questioning our initial thoughts on that," the report quoted another staffer, highlighting the challenge facing those in Biden's camp who fear their candidate can no longer win.

Read the full report here.

Biden holding a presser this PM at 6:30 👇🏾 pic.twitter.com/Ru0g4Y5ZXz

— Daniel Strauss (@DanielStrauss4) July 11, 2024

im literally screaming, It should be fun on the bun

!nooticers

President Joe Biden's campaign has already suffered a major slowdown in donations and officials are bracing for a seismic fundraising hit, with the fallout from a debate nearly two weeks ago taking a sizable toll on operations, according to four sources close to the re-election effort.

"It's already disastrous," one of the sources close to Biden's re-election said of fundraising.

"The money has absolutely shut off," another source close to the re-election said.

Two of the sources said this month is on a path to be down by possibly half — "or much more," one of them said — from large donors alone. Sources emphasized that the donations were down across the board.

"Donors are negative. They had a call with the president. The call seemed so contrived to people; I don't think they buy it," one of the people close to the campaign said, referring to a recent national fundraising call between Biden and donors. "They called on people who were the most loyal, die-hard … There were no tough questions for the president."

Initially after the debate, the campaign reported an uptick in donors. But that quickly fell off, the sources said.

A Biden campaign spokesperson pushed back against the notion that fundraising was down. "That's not accurate," spokesperson Lauren Hitt said. "On grassroots fundraising, the first seven days of July were the best start to the month on the campaign — and many of those were first-time donors. On the high-dollar side, we've had folks max out since the debate, as well."

Hitt didn't share how many donors have hit the maximum allowed under federal law since the debate.

One of the people close to the re-election efforts said this week that the campaign believed major donors who have threatened to jump ship after the debate would come around — if only to avoid helping former President Donald Trump by sitting out the race.

Biden aides had said privately that "if major donors don't come along, we'll do it without them."

One of the sources said several unplanned fundraisers were in the early planning stages for the month.

But several people close to the re-election effort were already doubting that Wednesday, saying they could see evidence of the intensity in concern around Biden's ability to win in November growing.

One donor said he feared the re-election effort is out of touch with reality and may be repeating the delusions of Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign, leading Biden to make dangerously flawed assessments about his standing in the race.

The source said he was struck by the campaign's outward confidence, as well as Biden's own, even as publicly available data has found Biden trailing Trump in key states.

The doubts go beyond Biden's cognitive abilities. His positive talk about polling in the ABC News interview, for example, sounded "actually quite Trumpian," the donor said, and it has caused donors to question where he is getting his information from.

"Donors, they are saying, well, wait a minute, which polls is he looking at? Which polls should we be looking at?" he said.

"It's a broader, 'Is the group around the president really in touch with what's going on? Are people deluding themselves, and therefore whatever they're conveying is sort of a reflection of the bubble?'" he said.

Some of Biden's top fundraisers won't reach out to their lucrative networks because they're not convinced Biden will be the nominee heading into the convention, despite his saying he's staying in the race, according to one of Biden's bundlers.

"You can't reach out to someone, because someone could say, 'Geez, I didn't know, he has dementia,'" said a top bundler. "Right now, it's like someone asks, 'You want to go see a movie?' And in this case I'm saying, 'I don't know what f---ing movie is playing.'"

A donor who did max out this month, Amy Goldman Fowler, explained her reasoning in a statement.

"I have been a long-time admirer of the President and continue to support his reelection efforts," she said. "The Biden Administration's accomplishments are many and they are consequential. I'm proud of what he has been able to do. Yesterday I reiterated my support by making an additional significant contribution to President Biden's election fund."

Oh how I love to watch them cope. If they had any balls at all they'd grab the homeless by the the throat.

First the weak points of China:

1. Their property market makes up 30% of their GDP and is very unstable. - I don't know how they are going to solve this. My assumption is that they delay the economic crash until they are large enough to pay it off.

2. Their demographic crisis is going to be one of the worst in the world. - They already are working around this by installing as many working robots in manufacturing sector as they can.

3. They have bad relations with pretty much everybody. - Doesn't matter. China is still increasing trade every year with the countries it doesn't get along with.

4. China is blocked off from cutting edge tech from the west. - China has been domestically innovating and creating its own alternatives now.

Now, why I think China is actually going to surpass the US:

1. Produces the most number of STEM graduates in the world.

2. Is in second place when it comes to AI research and development. Only 2-3 years behind the US.

3. Is in 4th place when it comes to manufacturing robot density and is well on its way to take first place in the coming years.

4. Is in second place when it comes to semiconductor industry. Fast catching up to the US.

In the long run, the country that is going to lead in tech is the one that has the most tech literate workers and high IQ. China is that country with a major advantage over the US in that regard. China's cutting edge tech is likely already ahead of Japan in all areas, which makes it a real major player. China has also managed to consistently keep growing at a faster rate than the US. China has also solved for energy imports by getting it all from Russia which is now completely dependent on China. The only area that China lacks in right now is that it is not number 1 right now.

China is currently only 5 years behind the western semi conductor industry. A few years back it was 10 years behind. China is fast catching up even in the industries where the west is actively trying to hold China back.

China is today offering the same tech that the west does at the mid range level for far cheaper prices, even accounting for increases in the cost of manufacturing in China today.

China is the number one leader in manufacturing robot density growth and in renewables sector growth in comparison to the rest of the world, reaching its set goals far in advance by years. China also leads in the cheap EV industry.

At current rates China will surpass the west in cutting edge semiconductor production within the decade. After which the only key sectors in which the west will have a lead is spaceships ( 15 year lead because of a one off prodigy billionaire ) and AI ( 2-3 year lead presently by the US ).

China in a decade or two is in a position to provide the world with everything that the US offers, but at far cheaper and more competitive rates. China also has a global market of billions of people that cannot be controlled by the west in the form of ASEAN, India, middle east, South America, Africa, and Russia. China currently remains ahead of the US in terms of both economic growth rate and global trade growth rate.

As the implementation of robotics and automation in the work industry scales up, China is no longer in a position to collapse due to demographic decline. This leaves China with a population of 770 million people that is still far higher than the US population and more than capable of competing with the US tech sector due to the number of stem graduates produced by China.

Conclusion:

China is going to surpass the US at current growth rate of their tech sector within a decade or two at most. Tech supremacy leads to economic supremacy. China is going to overtake the west. Trying to blockage the Chinese market doesn't work as the Chinese market still has access to the rest of the non-western world, and the Chinese of today are far enough up the tech tree to be capable of innovating on their own. Chinese supremacy is guaranteed by the end of the century.

They are also leading in fusion tech.