Got this idea from reddit but it has a nice ring to it.
Currently the Global west is the most developed part of the world.
For the most part they are so advanced and have so many layers of infrastructure and technology built over infrastructure and technology, that for another civilization to fully catch up with take centuries.
Due to this fact, the general direction of the world's population flows remains westwards. With Western populations dying out over time as the average person has no more skills to grow upwards, and the exceptional generally do not have more than two children at a time, with the remaining population maintenance being done by bringing in immigrants to do mid to lower tier jobs.
Eastern Europeans move to Western Europe, Ukrainians move to Eastern Europe, Russians move to Ukraine, so on and so forth.
Mexicans move to the US, Central Americans move to Mexico, and South Americans move to Central America.
Middle east moves to Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabians move to Europe.
Chinese and Indians move to West and middle east.
East Asians move to West and middle east.
Central Asians move to China, Russia, and Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan moves to China, Russia, and Europe.
As we can see, the movement of global civilization leans westwards. Throughout the process no single civilization truly ends up dying out, because the countries at the bottom of the move west ladder ( Africa ), end up having a higher than replacement fertility rate.
Global civilization begins to recede and free up parts of the planet only when the Bottom link has a lower than replacement fertility rate.
Currently, sub-saharan Africa has a fertility rate of 4.6 per woman. Which means it would likely take till the end of the century for them to go below replacement.
So it is only after 2100 that we should expect entire countries to begin disappearing from the face of the Earth due to depopulation.
As of now we can safely expect the Western world to have the same population by 2100, meanwhile in the rest of the world, a large share of countries would be having half the population that they do currently.
North America remains the final destination of the world.
As long as the global population remains above 600 million, North America's population will remain around 600 million.
South America and East Asia populations are guaranteed to halve by end of century.
Arab world will likely be 1/3rd smaller.
In conclusion:
The only centers of power at the end of the 21st century will be the North America west, Europe, and India.
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