Russia will not win in Ukraine and here is why

Basic military doctrine states that the attacking force must have a ratio of 3:1 against the defending force to be able to defeat them.

Currently there are only 500,000 Russian troops fighting in Ukraine.

Meanwhile the entire Ukrainian army is busy fighting in Ukraine.

This gives the Ukrainians a clear advantage in the case of continuing to defend their lands until the Russian troops die out or lose morale and give up.

The Russians do not have the required troop advantage or military tech advantage to take over a country the size of Ukraine in an invasion.

No matter what you or anybody else wishes to believe, you cannot defeat the basic numbers on the ground at the end of the day.

Russia is going to lose this war in the end. There is no way around that.

Will the Russian economy survive the aftermath?

It is difficult to say. Currently the Russian economy is completely tied up to the Chinese economy and the Indian economy. The Indians are more than willing to continue doing business with Russia in the long term so one can expect the Russian economy to keep growing due to its trade with India and China. The real question is, are India and China enough for the Russian economy to keep growing at a rapid rate?

I would say the answer is yes. The Indian and Chinese economy together are large enough to support the Russian economy in the long term and allow it to keep growing over time.

The issue that arises for Russia is that from now on in all future agreements it has to give both China and India favorable benefits.

In the case of India, the Indian population able to freely travel to Russia is going to explode. In the case of China they are going to take over Islands and cities from Russia without consequence near the Chinese-Russia border.

https://ipdefenseforum.com/2024/03/far-east-territorial-dispute-tests-prc-russia-ties/

The other downside of the Russian invasion is that they are no longer considered western by any western government, which means now it will be impossible for the Russian people to immigrate to richer parts of the world.

The Russian people are now stuck in Russia to stagnate and die out, in some ways worse than the position of the Japanese or South Korean people today.

A weakened Russia is to the benefit of China as it increases Russia dependency on China and it's cooperation with China.

In the long run China does not develop fellow economies, it makes other economies dependent on China.

As the Chinese economic growth slows down, so would the Russian economic growth, as China would never allow a fellow partner to grow at a faster rate than itself, giving it more power over time.

In conclusion - Russia is doomed to become a Chinese vassal state and suffer the consequences.