Long term impact of the Ukraine-Russia war on Russia

It will fall out of the top 15 largest economies of the world.

Other than that not much else will change. It will not collapse, just stagnate as a society as they have sacrificed too many soldiers for the invasion.

Its economic ranking will continue to go down for the next two decades. It will not be in a position to invade again.

In the long run, it is an empire permanently in decline, as it is cut off from the western economic network, and the Chinese SCO still requires a major net importer to hold the system up that nobody is willing to become.

If Russia persists in its decline in relation to other nation states, that means China will no longer be able to compete with the west on its own, as China will have zero powerful partners remaining, which with China's aging population, sets it up to soon follow in Japan's footsteps in terms of global decline, becoming the 5th or 6th largest economy one to two generations down the line.

Conclusion:

Russia's failure to win the Ukraine war along with economic decline will result in a domino effect of the decline of the anti west alliance over the coming decades.

Cuba is already crashed. Pakistan is crashed. Russia is crashing. China is aging fast. That leaves Iran.

The eastern axis will not be able to beat the west