CFB Week 0 Betting Picks

Week 0 is for true CFB junkies. For the degenerate among us, I think there is still value in the betting markets going against some of these horrific teams. The new era of CFB with NIL deals and the transfer portal has allowed programs to transform overnight, for better or worse. There are several teams this week that have been decimated by top players fleeing to greener pastures, while others were able to retool and add disgruntled talent from premier programs. Top three bets, from least to most confident, below:

#3 - Uconn +27

We start with an absolute sicko bet, but I'm confident that Uconn should cover here. Some of you may know that Uconn is consistently considered a bottom 5 team in all of CFB, but I think they will break out of the basement this year (and graduate to maybe #110 instead of #130). Jim Mora takes over the program, and while I don't think he is a good coach, I think he is competent enough to get them going in the right direction. They also get Ta'Quan Roberson from Penn State, a 4* transfer with dual-threat ability. That should be enough to keep the chains moving and preventing Utah St from having more time of possession/better field position.

Speaking of UTST, I think they will take a step back from their successful 2021 campaign. Their former HC departs and Blake Anderson steps in from Arkansas State. This should result in a noticeable dip in pace, so I don't expect UTST to drag race Uconn even if there is a talent disparity. They retain their QB, who was decent, but lose most of their WR talent. No doubt I expect UTST to handle Uconn, but I expect it to be a margin of victory closer to 13-17 points. Did I mention UTST is ~70% mormon? Frick mormons.

#2 - Illinois -10

Here is our first bet targeting a program in shambles. Craig Bohl is an old school coach, and I mean that in the most disrespectful way. Analytics are anathema to this man, and as a result has caused an exodus from the program. Between the transfer portal and graduating students, Wyoming lost top 3 WRs, top RB, 4 OL, & 7 starters on D. They also downgrade at QB with a new transfer. They had to advertise to get someone to show up and play. https://mwwire.com/2021/12/24/wyoming-football-head-coach-craig-bohls-unique-statement/

Illinois, on the other hand, should be competent. Bellema has a proven track record of being able to establish a good run game, and I see that being effective against Wyoming. They also bring in Barry Looney, who should bring some of the magic that made UTSA a top 30 team in pace last year. I expect Illinois to handle this game from the get go and find success in every phase of the game.

#1 - Vanderbilt -6.5

This line has moved north of the magic number 7, but I still like it anywhere under 10. Hawaii does not have the advantage of catching teams between weeks not adjusting to the long travel, so their typical home field advantage should not apply. Of all the teams playing week 0, Hawaii may be the program in the most direpair. Todd Graham was a menace last season, and came under heavy scrutiny at the conclusion of their year due to claims of verbal abuse and favoritism. He was eventually forced to resign, but not before the damage could be undone. Most of the top skill positions left the program, resulting in a total loss of their starting QB, top 3 WRs, top 2 OL, and 9 starters on D. They still have not chosen a starting QB, and reports are that it is a toss up between three different players. Not a vote of confidence on whomever ends up starting.

Vanderbilt, although a bottom feeder in the SEC, is a competent team outside of its conference. They posted the #32 recruiting class this year, and retains most of their returning starters. They have a solid run game and should have a decent O-Line to create opportunity. I don't expect Vandy to win a lot of games this year, so they will take advantage of a ripe opportunity and pummel a program in transition.

Other picks I like are Nebraska -13, UTEP PK, and Nevada/NMSU under 48.5