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The challenge facing META and Google that has been overcome by Elon Musk

META and Google both failed to go beyond software. Often time they even failed to expand in terms of software. Winning only by buying up smaller companies and by the money they make from what they are already good at. Online advertisements for google and online socialization and communication platforms for META.

Every time Google has tried to move into the product space and every time META has made attempts to move into the METAverse they have failed. The reason for this failure is simple. They have made attempts to build for a future that the current generation is not prepared for. Most often we look at google products ( Google lens for example ) and we find products that are too far ahead of their time. Only a person who was connected deeply to the internet since birth would want to be wearing it in their glasses 24/7 once they reach adulthood. Similarly, META tried to build up the metaverse, an online universe which would act as a second society and an alternate space to the real world. The problem with the Metaverse was two fold. 1) It wasn't fully baked yet. From shitty avatars to a limited functioning universe, technology had simply not come far enough to support the sort of fidelity required to make millions of people socialize as avatars in the same space. Roblox and VR chat had already filled that niche, and that niche could only be filled by entertainment sources, and not as a form of alternate socialization for the masses. Most people actually preferred to interact with one another rather than each other's avatars in a VR space. Which brings us to the second problem of the metaverse 2) The audience generation hadn't yet been born when the metaverse came out. Today, the age group that would be willing to be part of the metaverse has barely reached the ages of 10 or 12, people most often stick to one or two iterations ahead of the technology they have been born with and metaverse was too far out even for the first internet generation to adapt to.

How Elon Musk changed the game:

Elon Musk had one advantage over Zuckerburg and Google. Elon was an old school nerd. The kind that believed in physical projects. Ideas that were born and common in 1950s and 60s classic science fiction. Ideas that were relatable to the common man as future technology worth getting excited over.

Elon Musk chose things like spacecrafts and electric cars, products that already had a default positive consumer interest. Products that could market themselves and get people excited just for them existing. Things that could be seen, touched, and experienced first hand. Things that one could declare were building the future, improving mankind. Even somebody's grandpa could watch an advanced reusable rocket launch off and get excited. Mark Zuckerburg and Google dealt in the science fiction of nerds. Elon Musk dealt in the science fiction of the common man. This is what gave him a key advantage in terms of advancing his business.

Every product that Elon Musk is working on today, is something that could be found in famous science fiction classics as a common item of the future. He looked at science fiction since the 1940s, and has been making those products wherever possible a reality. Today, he has companies working in energy storage, rockets, electric vehicles, human-machine interfaces, robotics, tunnel boring machines, AI, social media, and quite possibly more to follow.

Elon Musk took stagnant branches of technology and brought those back to life. He built a future that all age groups could relate to, and that is what gives Elon Musk his edge over all other technology based billionaires today.

Where to next Elon Musk:

As of now, the three most likely ventures Elon Musk might venture into are:

1. Investment market - create some of the most advanced prediction machines on the planet, expand as an official entity into the investment and banking sector.

2. Computer chips - Invest in chip manufacturing. Build cheaper homegrown chips for all tesla products to keep all production in house.

3. Quantum computing - It is a science fiction concept still in its nascent stages. Go into the field and push for early dominance and spread, to help develop better human brain interfaces taking quantum effects into account.

As of now Elon Musk is 53 years of age. This gives him 2-4 more decades of building on his current ideas and coming up with new business ventures. This gives him enough time to spread into 4 more technology ventures before he dies or becomes too infirm to carry on his businesses.

Conclusion:

Elon Musk built the future as per the science fiction stories and as per things that people thought of when they thought of the future. Elon Musk currently has his fingers dipped in almost all parts of future technologies in development today which will be ready for the next generation. His technology focus is primarily the developed world middle class and richer people. He still has money to make and fuel left in him to go.

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META and Google both failed to go beyond software.

I don't think that's true. Google makes Android phones and META dominates the VR hardware market. Sure they aren't as big and flashy as Musk and his electric cars and reusable rockets. But they are still respected hardware contributions.

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Yes, but google never managed to dominate the android market.

I wasn't aware of META dominating the VR hardware market. Fanboyism failure on my end for Valve headsets. Meta still failed to capitalize on VR hardware to bring the metaverse to life. Maybe META is onto something with VR hardware despite the low points. VR market is growing at a healthy rate so far.

You raised good points.

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Yeah META is pumping tons on money into VR to try to become the 'iphone' of VR when/if it takes off and gets widespread adoption. However I have my doubts over if it will go from gimic entertainment tech to widespread necessity like smartphones did. Maybe some day but I don't see it happening anytime soon.

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It's more like the ps5 rather than the iphone. People don't mind using VR for entertainment purposes, but nobody NEEDS VR like they need access to a smartphone.

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True, but I think Zuck sees a world in which glasses/a headset replace smart phones and people spend near 100% of their time in AR if not VR.

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Won't happen. You would need brain-computer interfaces to go beyond the smartphone or a direct mind accessible 24/7 noosphere with wireless link up. As a mid way iteration I can humor smart lens but you would need multiple more generations of miniaturization and energy storage upgrades to make that happen, and I don't see enough people being interested in smart glasses, accounting for the fact that even people with bad eye sight don't have enough of them interested in normal glasses.

The world Zuck sees is about 30-60 years away at least, humoring the idea of people being okay with visibly being tracked 24/7 directly through their retinas or their brain waves being picked up by advertisers.

You want to replace the smartphone, develop smart contact lenses that cost around 10-100 bucks a pop.

People shifted to smartphones when smartphones could do all the basic things a computer could but cheaper. Anything that replaces the smartphone will have to be cheaper than it or a whole lot better in multiple ways at the same price point.

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The Rayban Meta glasses apparently sold insanely well.

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Really?

Can you source?

Thank you.

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I've seen third-party estimates that over 1 million have been sold. During Meta's last earnings call, Zuckerberg mentioned that many styles were sold out. Now, with multimodal AI enabled, Meta may have the best AI wearable on the market.

https://www.theverge.com/2024/5/3/24148513/meta-rayban-smart-glasses-ai-wearable-race

Honestly kinda impressive. Maybe we do shift to a world where everybody wears smart glasses. Would be interesting.

For comparison, in 2007, 1.39 million iphones were sold in total. In 2008, 11.6 million iphones were sold.

Cost is around 299 USD, which makes it close to the cost of an android phone.

I can see upper middle class going for it, but I still think it will sell at the level of the smart watch rather than at the level of the smart phone.

Honestly, it has a chance. Sales numbers do not lie.

Thanks for the source.

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