Europe is going to remain the second most powerful global power.

Here is why:

1. China is the second most powerful economy in the world right now. However, China's internal market is unstable, it's population is shrinking rapidly, and it's economic growth rate is slowing down. It is very likely to get stuck in the upper middle income trap. It's share of global GDP will continue to shrink in the years ahead.

2. India is too late to the party and has a golden age GDP growth rate still slower than the Chinese golden age GDP growth rate. Add to this the high unemployment and low education rates and India is not in a position to surpass the EU. If China cannot surpass the EU in the long run, then neither can India.

3. Russia is getting beaten up by Ukraine, one of the most backwards European nation states.

4. The middle east is too unstable for long term development to take place in which it surpasses the European Union.

5. Africa is too backwards to take over the EU.

6. Oceania's population is too small to surpass the EU economy.

7. South America is too stagnant as a continent to surpass the EU.

8. South East Asia nation states have too much economic discrepancy between each other to be able to replace the EU as the second most powerful economic union in the world.

9. Japan and South Korea are too old with declining populations to be able to surpass the EU.

The super power that the west has is that they know how to maintain consistent stability as developed economies to a degree that the rest of the world does not. Nor is the rest of the world capable of expanding its borders in the 21st century to the degree that the west is capable of.

European Union is already converting and assimilating Slavic culture fully into the western cultural systems. This gives them access to more than 300 million people to support the system.

The European Union and North America also remain the primary destinations for immigrants from across the world.

They still have societies that continue to function. Meanwhile even the capital cities in East Asia are showing signs of shrinking.

The primary weakness of the European Union remains that they have become technologically stagnant to the point that China indisputably surpasses them. The Europeans by missing out on the tech race have guaranteed 2nd spot for their people compared to the US.

Out of all the great powers of the 21st century, China is the weakest link as it has no stable future ahead of it, nor partners competent enough to support it.

Russia's failures in defending against Ukraine add to the woes of China as Russia is supposed to be China's most powerful ally. This further weakens Chinese claims over the rest of the planet. A weak Russia helps the west more than it helps China in the medium to long run.

With the defeat of Russia, China is back to having Iran as the strongest ally, which is also about to go on a war it is at risk of losing or at best resulting in mutual destruction.

This leaves China with North Korea as a dependable ally.

We can see China's failures in global diplomacy and partnerships here, where they have no powerful second in command to help them control their part of the world. All the burden and responsibility rests on the aging, irreplaceable population of China.

European Union on the other hand remains powerful enough to be a relevant ally to the US in maintaining the global order. The west is diplomatically far better interconnected than China and its allies.

As of now it is very likely that as Russia fails the war, Belarus will end up turning back towards Europe as their current PM leaves office in the future. Hungary also is likely to get back in line with EU policy with the continuing weakening of Russia's position. This further strengthens the influence of the EU.

Turkey is the only remaining challenge that is relevant to the EU as they need Turkey with liberal leaders before they can humor adding Turkey to the EU. Beyond this all current problems are solved for.

In comparison, most other nation states have far more unresolved issues than Europe in its present form. Rarely has a nation state outside of North America and Europe reached developed status, and almost none outside of those two places had done so without sacrificing a major chunk of their future.

East Asia in its race to reach parity with the western nation states have put themselves in a position where they have no future.

On the other hand no other region of the world is close to reaching parity with the Europeans.

Long term impact:

Global power remains in the hands of the west. Technological advancement is a quality power not a quantity power, meanwhile the east relies more on quantity than quality to advance their people. The problem with the east remains that they obsess over perfectly synchronized systems which don't leave enough space for innovation and new creation.

We can see this with the fact that Eastern ways of leadership still haven't left methods that the west was using in their worse corporations in the 1970s.

The Eastern company and corporation rules aren't an alternate system, they are an obsolete system pushed to its full potential.

Conclusion:

West wins this century again. Dominates again after learning its lessons dealing with Eastern upstarts.