I think the Ukrainian numbers for Russian casualties are accurate or even underestimates

As per Ukrainian estimates:

1. 600,000 dead Russian soldiers

2. 1.8 million Russians wounded

3. 16495 destroyed combat vehicles

4. 8513 tanks destroyed

5. 17,104 artillery destroyed

6. 367 aircraft destroyed

7. 328 helicopters destroyed

8. 28 ships and boats destroyed

Here is some information about Russian firepower estimates in recent years

1. The 2.4 million total Russians dead or wounded matches up with the news of all experienced Russians forces pretty much being decimated over the years (1.3 million active personnel + 2 million reserve personnel ) forcing them to hire thousands to hundreds of thousands of new conscripts to continue this war with limited training sent to the front lines just to slow down the Ukrainian defense. It would explain how Ukraine was easily able to get into the [Kursk region of Russia and expand every single day](https:// https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/aug/19/russia-ukraine-war-live-latest-updates-volodymyr-zelenskiy-vladimir-putin-kursk-incursion).

2. The 16,495 destroyed combat vehicles makes sense as Russia had been going all in on the war and they have more than a 100,000 combat vehicles that aren't tanks.

3. The 8,513 tanks makes sense as every single day of an ongoing conflict you are going to end up with destroyed tanks and the number of destroyed tanks is still within the estimates of how many tanks Russia had during the beginning of the war, which is around 14,000 leaving Russia with 5,500 tanks to still push to the front line.

4. If we are to believe that 17,104 artillery pieces have been destroyed then Russia is close to running out of artillery to attack Ukraine with. Russia would barely have a few hundred of the original artillery pieces left from before the war started and whatever remains will be what Russia has produced since the war began. Russia is expected to get dangerously low on artillery pieces (not munitions) by 2025

5. The aircraft, helicopter, and ship numbers aren't as relevant to this war as due to lack of air dominance for any side, aircraft are seeing limited use in this conflict, and most ships are far away from the war zone.

The numbers if accurate would also explain why the west is not giving permission to use their more higher end weapons in Russia, as the Ukrainians based on these numbers are already winning the war against Russia via sacrifices of the Ukrainian military personnel, but without further escalation from the west, and the risks that come with further escalation.

Based on current trends, we can expect the Ukraine - Russia war too reach a decisive point by 2025, in favor of the Ukrainians.

As of now, the Ukrainian advances in Russia are expanding every single day. The little blue dot within Russia keeps increasing in size, and Russia has shown no capacity to slow the Ukrainian troops down. Once again signifying that the Russian military is spread too thin, which would only be possible if the Ukrainian casualty numbers are accurate.

Long term impact:

Low impact scenario:

Kursk buffer zone. It is very likely that Ukraine did not expect to get as far as easily as they did, but now that they are succeeding to the extent that they are, it is only logical for them to push for a buffer zone within Russia, forcing Russia to lose territory in this conflict and have them actually suffer territorial losses causing them to be more wary of conducting another similar invasion which might leave them even smaller than before.

Moderate impact scenario:

Kursk buffer zone and Russian economic stagnation for the next 3 decades. Russian economic growth in the past two years is considered to have been mostly due to selling as much oil as they can and the GDP growth created by wartime expenditures. As the war comes to an end the dead people would still be dead, and there is a real possibility that without GDP growth from military expenditure, the economy goes stagnant or even goes into the negative. With the global western sanctions on Russia staying in place, and Chinese banks and businesses less willing to conduct business with a losing Russia, and the declining population of Russia, it is possible that Russia gets stuck in a long term state of economic stagnation where their economy does not grow any further for the next 3 to 4 decades.

High impact scenario:

In this scenario the Kursk buffer zone is formed, and it spread even further to bordering districts within Russia. Russian economy after the war doesn't just stagnate but instead falls into active decline as the Ukrainians don't just capture territory, but actively work to destroy any and all oil manufacturing plants and power generation plants within Russia, making it near impossible for Russia to keep anything beyond high value infrastructure and infrastructure in the capital functioning 24/7. The rest of the country would fall to third world status where they do not have enough money to do anything beyond staying alive.

Ukrainian impossible scenario:

Ukraine keeps expanding until half of Russia breaks down into a buffer zone. Putin dies before the war ends or his death at the hands of the elite causes the war to end. What remains of Russia becomes completely dependent on Ukraine and Kazakhstan to keep itself afloat. Russia is denuclearized in exchange for removing global sanctions, Russia agrees to the terms.

Who are the real winners:

The west, as they put Russia permanently to sleep at the same threat level as Iran or North Korea.

China, as they get to weaken a potential rival above them, get all of their resources, and now get to be ranked as the second strongest military in the world.

Conclusion:

Russia is very likely to lose the war right now with how things are going. Russia having 2.4 million losses is more likely than not based upon their current defense capabilities and their current behavior when it comes to conducting the war. The west is not going to give Ukraine permission to use their more high tech weapons to attack Russia. The Russian military is likely to collapse by 2025 end at the latest. Ukraine may or may not be devastated at the end of this war, but Russia most certainly is.