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Global technology growth is going to slow down.

Here is why:

Global population is going to peak very soon, so we are going to lose the advantage of having additional research accrue from having more people around.

Global IQ is not going up at a fast enough rate to keep up. In the 20th century IQ was going up 3 points per decade. Fast enough for there to be a 9 IQ point difference in populations per generation. Enough to leave a noticeable impact at the societal level. Currently we are in best case scenario seeing far slower IQ growth and in worst case scenario seeing a reversal in IQ growth rate. This makes it impossible for humans to get smart enough as a collective per generation to make a noticeable difference in terms of making new more complex discoveries and solutions. This means we are getting dumber people every generation to solve harder tasks, with the hope that the cowtools these dumber people use to solve these harder problems are smart enough to make up for the loss of intelligence.

AI is not smarter than the smartest human alive so far. AI is currently expected to become as smart as the top 1 or 0.1% of humans out there. This would still be impressive but AI would again reach the limits of the most complex discoveries the smartest human alive can make which means that there will still be problems unsolvable to AI, just like there are problems unsolvable to the smartest humans alive today.

The gap between scientific discoveries made and their practical applications discovered is becoming smaller decade by decade. This is due to lots of major research being corporate based and the whole world being reliant on cutting edge technology, which makes it necessary to make new upgrades to technology every few years which is only possible by making new discoveries or uncovering new techniques based on new scientific principles. We are currently reaching for the top branches of the scientific tree, which means that we may requires a constant doubling of resources to make further discoveries. The speed at which new science is discovered isn't speeding up as much as the speed at which new scientific principles are being applied to actual technologies. We might reach a limit where no new better technologies can be created because scientific know how has reached its limits.

Biological human limitations. A human can only work 8 hours a day. So every increase in output or productivity is actually based on availability of better cowtools. Every next 2.5% increase in productivity requires a larger amount of resource output than the previous 2.5% increase in productivity. This model very obviously does not hold unless infinite growth is real. This is why the US is the only developed large nation state with a consistent 2.5% increase as the other developed economies couldn't keep up. Human biological limitations may make it impossible to make further technological improvements at previous rates.

Increase in global competition. Chinese tech actively competes against US tech for the same markets. This causes the two nation states to apply embargoes or sanctions upon each other. This slows innovation growth rate as instead of collaboration to make the best technology there is competition to slow down the other side. The global 5g companies from two different nation states with two different standards are harder to upkeep than one global 5g standard.

Stupid people are reproducing more. Globally the poorest societies reproduce more. This results in the global population getting stuck or dumber at the point where global improvements in education standards can no longer keep up.

Not enough competent immigrants to bring into developed nation states. There aren't enough smart immigrants to bring into the developed world to keep their growth levels in the positive. The world has already suffered too much brain drain and all the smartest people have mostly already left for the west. So the developed world can no longer rely on immigration to keep getting smart people to the extent that they could in the past.

Internet culture dumbing down global populations. The internet is great as a tool. As a social learning system it is terrible. It allows idiots to act as guides and to be the loudest voices. The internet is almost certainly dumbing people down which again makes future technological growth have diminishing returns.

Most nation states reaching the limits of their growth. In the world more and more nation states are getting stuck in the middle income trap or in a stagnant economic state where they cannot grow any further. This limits the number of nation states that can continue to provide ever more smarter and more competent people for research institutions to do further high level research.

New cold war. Global conflicts and divides. Nation states in a state of war or long term conflict are not in a position to invest as much into research as stable nation states. As the strongest economies keep falling into conflict with one another in a multi-polar world, this slows down future economic and technological growth. Adding to technological dependencies on other nation states.

The limits of data storage density also limit how much further technology can grow. As of now data density when it comes to storage capacity increases by three zeros per 15 years. Going by current rates, we should have storage devices as dense as a black holes within 200 years. Which very obviously makes no sense.

Conclusion:

Currently only the US is able to maintain consistent growth and even they are reaching their limits. Expect the world to get stuck at whatever point the US peaks. Expect technology to stagnate with worker robots and nation state level AIs.

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