Texas is the future of the US.

Texas has a culture that stands out as unique to the US. Texas has the second largest population ( growing ) in the US. Texas is also home to the second biggest economy in the US. If Texas was a country it would be the eighth largest economy in the world. The key advantage that Texas has over California, a state that beats California in multiple categories, is that it still has a growing population which makes it the most powerful state in the US with a growing future. Another key advantage that Texas has over California is that it has a younger population than California, with a median age of 35.2 years compared to the median age of 37.3 in California ( 2022 data ).

The key downside to Texas is that abortion is extremely restricted since the overturning of Roe V Wade, limiting abortion access to exceptional cases such as risk to mother's life.

While the Texas abortion law is far more stringent than the majority of western civilization, it is a tolerable stance by general world standards, once conservative nation states are included. This law has also had limited negative impact on the population growth rate of Texas and the economic growth rate as well.

Elon Musk, the richest man in the world, has also moved his base of operations to Texas for both Tesla, and SpaceX ( ongoing shift ). This again works in favor of the state of Texas and guarantees future growth for its economy.

Texas is also the second biggest state in the US by land area ( Alaska is first ), which again works in favor of Texas as land is one of the primary resources to build up a strong and prosperous civilization. 9 times out of 10, the more land you can own, the better off you will be. Texas also goes on to provide some of the highest number of personnel to the US armed forces out of all the states in the country.

Taking all these factors into account, Texas is the most powerful state in the US, when future scope is accounted for.

When will Texas surpass California at its current trajectory:

1. Population :

Texas population is 30.5 million with a growth rate of 1.58%. California population is 39 million with a growth rate of 0.17% ( 2023 data, exception for California having its population grow in 2023 when it decreased in most years in past decade ). At the above stated trajectories in 2041 the Texas population will be 40.44 million meanwhile the Californian population will be 40.21 million people. Texas will have surpassed the population of California by 2041 making it the largest population state in the US.

2. GDP :

The GDP of Texas in 2022 was 2.4 trillion USD. The GDP of California in the same year was 3.6 trillion USD. In 2022 Texas GDP growth rate was 2.7% while California GDP growth rate was 0.7%. Going by those numbers Texas will have a GDP of 4.20 trillion USD by 2044 and California will have a GDP of 41.68 by 2044. Texas will have surpassed California GDP by 2044 making it the largest economy in the US based on current trajectory.

3. GDP per capita :

The GDP per capita of California and Texas is 93,000 USD and 78,000 USD respectively ( Approximate values used for simplifying calculations ) in the year 2024 at a GDP growth rate of 2.1% and 5.7% respectively for the two states. At those rates California should have a GDP per capita of 105,000 USD by 2030 meanwhile Texas should have a GDP per capita of 108,000 USD by 2030. Texas GDP per capita at current rates would have crossed California by 2030 making it the 3rd to 5th highest GDP per capita in the US.

Thus, we can see that based on current trajectories, Texas is pretty much guaranteed to surpass California in all relevant metrics by 2050 at the latest.

What makes Texas a more attractive state to move businesses to than California:

The primary reason that most businesses would prefer to move to Texas over California is the lower tax rate imposed on businesses and workers in Texas, which makes it an attractive location to move to for larger corporations. California also seems to have a much larger housing crisis and far more bureaucracy to get things done which makes it harder to conduct business in California in comparison to Texas. While Silicon Valley is located in California, and some of the biggest corporations in the US remain is California, Texas has developed a big enough technological base as to allow for corporations to move there as well as a backup option if things do not work out in California.

What does Texas mean for culture wars:

Culture is most commonly influenced by whoever is in power/ which group of people is the wealthiest in the region. This is primarily due to the fact that people try to get closer to wealth by copying its mannerisms and tactics employed. If Texas really does surpass California in all categories by the year 2050, it would guarantee a reversal of liberal trends across the US and the world, to better align with more comparatively conservative Texan values. We can expect further liberalization in the US to completely stop or even begin backtracking altogether by 2050 if not earlier, and for more liberal US states to lower their tax rates to the acceptable minimum to attract businesses from across the US to shift to their state.

There is also a possibility that by 2050 when further leftward movement of cultural values stops, that Texas would have moved on to being as liberal as present day California, which would imply opening up of abortion restrictions, more bureaucracy, and LGBTQ+ pride parades being a common annual event. The chances of this occurring for now appear to be unlikely.

Conclusion:

Texas is the future of the US. If is gaining on California and is pretty much guaranteed to surpass it in all areas by 2050 at the latest. The secondary impacts of such an event are that we can expect the further progressive liberalization of the US to stop by 2050 at the latest and for US states to become competitive when it comes to lowering tax rates once again. Tertiary effects would be minority rights existed and being applied only to the extent of the law across the world and no further celebrations being tolerated or actively encouraged in any manner. There is also a possibility of Texan conservative values becoming the equivalent of current day Californian liberal values although the chances currently seem to be rather low.

Texan values will lead the future.

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