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:schopenmarsey: :marseybigbrain: ETHICS DEBATE #3: Now I Am Become Death :marseyoppenheimer: :marseynukegoggles:

Alright, no more discussion of the limits of free trade. Let's talk about technology. I saw a lively debate on here between @TheTroubleWithPibbles, @August, @Geralt_of_Uganda, etc, about whether it is ethical to develop technologies...

Scenario

This, of course, actually happened

J. Robert Oppenheimer was a brilliant scientist.

being so brilliant, he was able to conceive of, and help build, the greatest weapon known to mankind - the atomic bomb.

Oppenheimer, of course, didn't know the long term consequences of developing such a weapon - but he understood the sheer destructive potential of such a device.

Your question is: Was Oppenheimer acting ethically by assisting to develop the atomic bomb?

NOTE: In this hypothetical, history is at a crossroads. You don't know what will happen in the future - whether the device you created will be used to end life on earth or to usher in a new golden age.

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Aw heck I actually don't know about this one. I'm gonna say no it's not moral, but then again war itself is amoral and you don't win it by following your ethical convictions. He did help an evil thing come to life in this world, but only so much of the responsibility is on him- he was not the only person to develop it, nor was he the one to order its use, nor was he the one actually priming and dropping the bombs

Ultimately I believe he did contribute to an evil thing, but if one day missiles are launched it will not be his name that I will be cursing in my last moments but rather those of men sitting by the big red button

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More nukes --> smaller wars.

:marseyshrug: :marseysleep:

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We are only able to make that point because the weapon has not been used so far. Given how recently it has appeared when considering the timescales of human history, it is merely an inevitability that nuclear weapons will be used in the future, at which point it will be impossible to justify them having been a deterrent for war

When Maxim gun was first created it too was thought to be the weapon to end all wars- a gun so fast and so deadly that no one would wish to war against it due to the potential casualties alone. Fast forward 150 years and each soldier in the world is equipped with a descendant of the Maxim gun that is deadlier in every aspect

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>it's been used

>it discourages larger wars, as evident from history

>(oh shit better not invade China or my country will get nuked)

This doesn't require much introspection to figure out.

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No I understand that, maybe I have not articulated what I meant well enough:

The idea that nuclear weapons act as a deterrent for larger wars is mute because it at the same time creates a risk of an even larger war breaking out, and given enough time such war will inevitably happen. It merely creates a barrier- any tensions lower than a given threshold will lead to nothing, but should they be large enough to overcome this barrier then the results will be more disastrous than anything we could have caused with conventional weapons.

The nukes dropped on Japan are not an example of such war because it was done in an era where only one of the side had access to a limited amount of them. We already live in a completely different situation so to assume that future nuclear interactions would play out just like that one is inappropriate

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nuclear weapons act as a deterrent for larger wars is mute

*moot, but that's false. It is a deterrent.

creates a risk of an even larger war breaking out,

No, it mitigates against having large scale conflcits with multiple countries (a la WW1 and WW2) because of MAD.

It merely creates a barrier- any tensions lower than a given threshold will lead to nothing, but should they be large enough to overcome this barrier then the results will be more disastrous

Yeah, that barrier is called MAD, and it imposes a high price for engaging directly with a nuclear-armed country. Hence, less major wars, etc. Without nukes, that barrier (or cost) to engaging in war is much lower, so you get more conflict and at a larger scale (such as WW1 and WW2).

We already live in a completely different situation so to assume that future nuclear interactions would play out just like that one is inappropriate

MAD still holds, and yes the probability of nuclear holocaust exists, but it's really silly to assume that nukes aren't a deterrent, that MAD somehow doesn't exist, and that the benefits of nuclear weapons have been significantly smaller conflicts and zero direct conflicts between the major powers.

Think of the world before nuclear weapons. You got these big butthole countries jostling around the globe for control, wreaking havoc on civilians. It culminates in WW2, during which 10s of millions of people died. The chance of some major event that results in a similar casaulty rate is much lower in a world with nuclear-armed countries., even if such an event is a nuclear armageddon or whatever.

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I agree that MAD is likely to prevent a smaller conflict from breaking out, but in my belief that benefit is outweighed by the risk of throwing humanity back to the stone age. Given the long history of government frickups I wouldn't trust my own life to them, much less so the lives of billions to some third-world nuclear capable shithole like Pakistan, because under MAD any mistake or incident, even one caused by incompetence rather than evil intent can be interpreted as an act of aggression

And while I just stated that MAD does prevent conflict on paper, it is impossible to quantify how much of an effect it really has. We still have proxy wars like Syria and Ukraine, because both sides know that the other won't engage nuclear weapons for a cause this petty or insignificant. So we can observe that it doesn't prevent this kind of conflict, despite the fact that they are large enough to permanently frick up a country and ruin millions of lives. You bring up world wars and how we haven't had anything this destructive for 80 years, but I would argue that predominantly this is not due to MAD but due to development of global trade and communication technologies. It is simply not profitable to go to war when the supply chains span and intertwine all the world. Global communications allow you to have operations essentially everywhere on earth, thus if you want to achieve something it is now much easier to talk or buy or apply political pressure. Even without nuclear weapons we would not be going to war with each other now over political threats or disagreements because there are other much cheaper and more effective ways that countries can 'send a message' and hurt each other.

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Your pulitzer's in the mail

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:#@longpostbotpat:

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