Yes- because they already pulled out the ships and troops and even got Belarus exercise at the same time. Gone too deep to back out now.
No- Putin wont blink but the other oligarchs will. Plus economy will 100% crash afterwards.
Discuss
Do you think russia will actually invade ukraine?
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FourthCarvedPumpkin
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Yes, I think it's going to happen but it's going to be a blundering mess. There are reports of multiple Russian barracks filled with sick soldiers because he had them posted all winter near the border. Morale is very low and these two things are extremely important factors when it comes to a military's fighting ability. He's going to wait for the weather to warm up before pushing forward if he can't provoke Ukraine to preemptively strike. He's already threatened that he will strike the moment Ukraine is allowed into NATO and if NATO responds with force then he is not afraid to retaliate with his nuclear arsenal. This is an extremely serious situation being led by a despot that can easily start the next world war.
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It's a stalemate then. Morale low. High sickness. Waiting till summer high costs. Europe keeps saying will take them into nato but dont but always seem like you definitely will. Russia calls bluff and invades. EU and US supply arms and munitions to ukrainian forces. No troops sent. Ukraine is next Syria but....next decade Russian gdp falls another 1/3rd and now they are fully Chinas b-word because they lost too much power to support themselves.
Surely Putin can see the problem here.
I think more likely scenario is permanent bases built at Ukraine border like Armania and Azerbaijan border. EUROPE can never accept Ukraine in Nato but always willing to the moment Russia gives up. Russia can never take troops off the border and its an economic pain but geopolitical goal of stopping eastward European expansion is secured this saving face for Putin.
Screenshot this and check if anyone will be willing to pay me to be part of their geopolitical thinktank. Thanks
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Your view is the safe one because you're technically already right until Putin either pulls away from the Ukrainian border (they already have hardened barracks structures) or he invades Ukraine. He's doing the ol' regime change in Ukraine and we know how that works out.
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Small country fricked for decades while attacker states economy collapses?
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Yes and that the country never truly enjoys being regime changed
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Not always true. Pinochet, for example, but thats quite awhile ago now (same sides though!)
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