Don't worry world, America's got your back : US would know if Russia preparing nuclear strike on Ukraine, experts say

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US would know if Russia preparing nuclear strike on Ukraine, experts say | The Times of Israel

Russian President Vladimir Putin has raised the possibility of using nuclear weapons if Russia's “territorial integrity” or existence is threatened. Moscow's declaration Friday that it was annexing four partly-occupied regions of Ukraine potentially meant Russia could consider responding to attacks on the claimed territory with a nuclear strike. Should such an escalation materialize, it would probably be in the form of a smaller tactical nuclear weapon, likely launched on a short-range Iskander ballistic missile, according to experts.

Where are the bombs?

They can even be watched closely by commercial satellites, as shown by the widespread, regularly updated imagery of activities at North Korean nuclear facilities. Podvig says Russia has deployed its strategic or long-range nuclear warheads in the field, on missiles, bombers and submarines. But its non-strategic or tactical nuclear weapons, which number as many as 2,000, are stored and not installed on delivery vehicles like the Iskander, according to Podvig. “There are no Iskanders roaming around with nuclear-armed warheads.

These weapons are in storage,” he said.

How would we know?

“I'm confident the United States would see any Russian preparations for using nuclear weapons,” said Mark Cancian, a former official in the US defense and energy departments who worked on nuclear weapons issues. “The weapons need to come out of storage, the units involved need to be alerted, and the Russians might also alert their strategic nuclear forces,” Cancian, now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, told AFP. He said evidence would also come from likely visible preparations for Russia's ground forces, issuing them protective equipment and instructions on how to act in a nuclear environment. Podvig said Moscow, like Washington, has for decades embraced the need for disciplined management of its nuclear warheads, and that system is fairly strong and visible.

“Nuclear weapons need a certain structure, people who are trained, and the maintenance.

Warning the world

Such alarm could go global if people expected an escalation to transcontinental nuclear war. In this photo taken from video provided by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Jan. 25, 2022, the Russian army's Iskander missile launchers and support vehicles prepare to deploy for drills in Russia. The United States would almost certainly warn allies and other powers, including crucially China and India, hoping they would pressure Moscow to pull back or face international isolation.

But Washington would likely see issuing public warnings as useful in adding to pressure on Russia, according to Podvig.

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